Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week Nine

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind. 

This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

Dynasty Five

Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off another week of NFL action.

JSN Explosion

Entering Sunday’s Week Nine game, Seattle wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba had played 25 NFL games in his career. In those, he finished higher than WR15 just one time. As a rookie, part of this limited production could simply be traced to playing time. Stuck behind two reliable veterans, Smith-Njigba played 64% of the snaps for the year. Digging deeper though, the receiver’s usage when he was on the field was also a concern. Smith-Njigba finished the 2023 season with an average depth of target (aDot) of just 6.1 yards. For reference, this ranked him 124th among 134 qualifying wide receivers. This season, that number has increased to 7.6 yards but he is still outside of the top 100 receivers in this category. A low aDot can be a good thing from a PPR floor viewpoint but certainly limits upside and touchdown opportunities. Through the first year and a half of his career, Smith-Njigba had developed a reputation as a low-upside player, which was obviously damaging his dynasty value.

That all changed on Sunday as the Seahawks faced off against their division-rival Rams. With veteran DK Metcalf missing his second straight game, JSN morphed into the alpha receiver dynasty managers hoped he would be when selecting him as early as the 1.01 rookie pick a year ago. Smith-Njigba finished with seven receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets, all team highs, and perhaps most importantly, an aDot of 20.3 yards. He even lost 78 yards of receiving on offensive penalties. Otherwise, we might be talking about an all-time great performance.

Now, dynasty managers face the challenge of analyzing Smith-Njigba with this new data point. Is this the beginning of a new trend for JSN or just a fluke? I lean towards the latter simply based on the usage and role Smith-Njigba has played through the first 25 games of his career. While his dynasty value has fluctuated over the past 18 months, Smith-Njigba is still quite expensive, according to the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder.

Achane Train

It has been a massively disappointing season for the Miami Dolphins, who now sit at 2-6 at the midpoint of the season. The early-season head injury for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a black cloud over the entire offense as star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle struggled without their signal caller. The duo has mostly bounced back since Tagovailoa returned but the team hasn’t gotten over the hump.

While the poor record and the passing game have dominated most conversations surrounding the Fins, second-year running back De’Von Achane has somehow gone under the radar despite some massive performances. In Tagovailoa’s four starts this season, Achane has finished as the RB3, RB2, RB2, and RB2, averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game.

Our latest dynasty ADP places Achane as the RB6 and a mid-second-rounder. After his recent hot stretch and at just 23 years old, that seems like a massive value. One move I like is pivoting off of the equally red-hot Saquon Barkley “down” to Achane while adding draft picks or a veteran upgrade at another position.

De’Von Achane averages 10.0 rushing FPG (~RB17) and 17.1 receiving FPG (~WR10) in games with Tua Tagovailoa

Owning Achane is basically like rostering Amon-Ra St. Brown (15.9 receiving FPG) and Jordan Mason (10.8 rushing FPG), and getting to start them both in one roster spot

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 4, 2024

Tillman Rising

One of my favorite rookie wideouts in a stacked 2023 class was Cedric Tillman, a day-two pick by the Browns. After a quiet debut campaign, I, and most dynasty managers, gave up on Tillman as a fantasy asset. The first six weeks of this season resulted in three catches for nine yards for Tillman, who slipped further into the dynasty depths. Here’s a look at Tillman’s ADP history during his short time in the league.

This too shows that after a slow start to this season, Tillman reached a new low. His 257 overall ADP rank meant he was waiver wire fodder in many leagues. Things changed once the Browns shipped off veteran wideout Amari Cooper, which opened up much more opportunity for Tillman. This also aligned with the injury to Deshaun Watson, leading to Jameis Winston being named the Browns’ starting quarterback. Here is what Tillman has produced over the past three games…

Those numbers are good for weekly fantasy ranks of WR10, WR3, and WR12. Tillman’s November ADP will no doubt be a new all-time high for the receiver, who looks like he could stick as the Browns WR1 moving forward.

Cedric Tillman is a BALLER.

Three games without Amari Cooper:

22.2 fantasy points per game
90% routes
24% targets
35% air yards

Tillman looking like a borderline WR1 as long as Jameis Winston can hang onto the job (today was bad).

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 4, 2024

Cardinal Sin

Arizona pulled out a huge win on Sunday, taking their record to 5-4, which is somehow good enough to be leading the NFC West through nine weeks. The surprising success of this team has masked the poor individual performances of their two biggest stars, Kyler Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.

Murray finished the week as the QB30, while Harrison was once again outside of the top-75 weekly fantasy wideouts. Murray has produced four top-12 fantasy performances this season, including the overall QB1 game in Week Two. He also has a trio of weeks outside of the top 20, which is a killer for a locked-in weekly fantasy starter, as Murray is for most dynasty teams.

Harrison has also flashed some upside, finishing as the overall WR1 in that same week against the Rams, but he now has as many games outside of the top 75 as he does inside the top-20 fantasy wideouts.

Unfortunately, neither of these young stars qualify as buy-low candidates in dynasty leagues as each has maintained their lofty value through the rough start to the season.

Hurtin’ Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys took another loss on Sunday, dropping them to 3-5, with the looks of a team that is not even close to a playoff contender. Any chance of a mid-season turnaround may have been dashed with Monday’s injury report. The Cowboys’ two most important offensive players suffered injuries on Sunday, but the team was hopeful neither Dak Prescott nor CeeDee Lamb would miss time.

Instead, Prescott was found to have a significant hamstring injury that will reportedly cost him multiple weeks and could result in a trip to the injured reserve list. Meanwhile, Lamb, who returned to the game following his injury, was called “week-to-week” with a shoulder injury.
The potential absence of the duo is yet another blow in what has the looks of a lost season for America’s Team. Lamb’s injury is obviously less severe and even if he were to miss time, his dynasty value would not be damaged. With Prescott out though, we should expect a dip in Lamb’s production.

Using the DLF Player Splits App, we see that Lamb’s weekly production takes a massive hit in games played without Prescott over his career. Lamb’s PPR average drops by 5.6 points in non-Dak games, while all other counting stats tumble as well.

Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week Nine