Dynasty Mind: Leverage
The Dynasty Mind Series returns in 2024, with six brand new thought-provoking articles, designed to give you a new perspective and get you thinking differently about how to approach your dynasty leagues. The series will aid you with understanding the optimal philosophy, process and game theory to help you implement an effective dynasty plan.
In the first article of the series I reviewed average draft position (ADP) data from various game types to identify undervalued and overvalued assets in your dynasty leagues, plus helping you understand the expected value curve for dynasty assets.
In this article I will be focusing on leverage in dynasty, how to consider leverage with respect to rookies, trading and the portfolio dynasty approach – providing an understanding of how you can use the advantages of leverage to gain the most value in dynasty.
Rookie Leverage
Rookies are the shiny new toy, the hot commodity, the catalyst for off-season perception and valuation spikes. Think about how you can use rookie hype as leverage to acquire or sell assets in your dynasty leagues. Understanding the arrival of a rookie can positively or negatively affect a veteran player’s perceived value is a key concept of leverage – allowing you to make a move on a veteran asset based on how you view them and the market change in value based on the rookie affecting their situation.
Jayden Daniels landing in Washington as the second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft provided a value boost to all weapons in the offense. The perception was that the addition gave veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin the best quarterback of his career, resulting in a value boost and hope of excellent production for the next couple of years. If you’re a McLaurin skeptic, you could use this rookie leverage to sell off the back of Daniels’ hype.
The opposite can be considered of Trey Benson, drafted by the Cardinals as the heir apparent to veteran running back James Conner. In certain circles the initial reaction to the selection of Benson in round three of the 2024 NFL Draft was immediate concern and an imminent split backfield. If you were a believer in Conner maintaining a majority workload and a potential RB1 season at age 29, this provided leverage to acquire him at a discount based on the rookie leverage of Benson.
Lastly, the arrival of a hyped rookie with star potential can be used to buy high and lean into the leverage on the trade partner’s side of the deal. Take Marvin Harrison Jr also joining the Cardinals, with the positive effect on quarterback Kyler Murray’s dynasty value. Murray owners gained leverage in prospective trades with the addition of a new high-ceiling weapon for the foreseeable future. This leverage should not lead to avoiding deals to acquire Murray, be mindful the price will increase and the seller has the leverage, creating an opportunity to acquire buy-high options where other dynasty managers avoid the opportunity with the increase in cost to acquire.
The positive effect of Harrison Jr joining the Cardinals has led to a buy-high opportunity for Murray, acknowledging the leverage the Murray manager holds in any prospective deal (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time).
Trade Leverage
When you send a trade offer the ultimate goal is to come to an agreement on a mutually beneficial deal for both parties. Understanding trade leverage will facilitate more trades and steps towards your dynasty goals of winning titles or efficient rebuilding. There are pressure points in the dynasty calendar where all the trade leverage is held by one of the parties within the deal – in these scenarios, it is important to know which party holds the leverage and the premium within the deal.
During the dynasty regular season, the key commodity is points in your lineup, hence the leverage is with the team holding points-scoring assets, especially considering draft capital is valued lower during the regular season. The opposite can be considered in the off-season, where draft capital is the commodity at peak value, holding leverage against opposing dynasty managers looking to acquire rookie draft picks. In simple terms, looking to trade for draft picks in the off-season comes with a premium.
By understanding this facet of dynasty will give you the best chance at securing a trade, knowing the leverage equates to a premium price. It is worth noting that while there is leverage at peak times in the dynasty calendar, the key is not to play on the leverage too prominently and lose a potential deal that would benefit you. Remember, you are one team in the league holding certain assets, there are alternative options to trading with you. While you think you hold all the leverage, be sure to understand taking the hard stance could negate the leverage and lose a deal.
The common misconception in trading is that the player initiating the trade (i.e. the person offering the deal) has no leverage as they are looking to acquire the asset, especially when not listed on the trade block. However, understand the ultimate goal of a trade is finding a mutually beneficial deal, regardless of which party sends the offer. The aim of any trade is a win-win deal, supporting both teams with their goals and increasing the likelihood of future deals with the trade partner. Completing a trade at 90% of value is better than a rejected offer.
Sending multiple identical offers in your portfolio of leagues provides a higher probability of acceptance than a singular trade offer (Credit: DLF Trade Analyzer).
Portfolio Leverage
The final topic to consider is portfolio leverage – where you can use the sheer volume of leagues you play in as an advantage to make trades at a cost-effective price and at greater ease than your competitors, who play in a lower number of leagues (smaller portfolio). Think of it like this, you play in one league and want to acquire player x, you have to pay the price of player x’s owner, whereas if you play in eight leagues you have potentially eight different prices to consider before making the deal at the best price and situation for you and your portfolio. Also consider the sale of an asset, let’s say you own Player Y in six leagues and want to reduce down to four shares – effectively you could look to trade the player in all leagues and take the best two deals, using your portfolio as leverage to find the best value deals.
Linking back to the art of trading leverage, another concept hidden within trade negotiations, on both sides of the deal is portfolio leverage – in respect of the other party not knowing how many leagues you play in and vice versa. In a singular trade negotiation you could look to have trade leverage on the face of it and want a small premium, however if the other trade party can acquire the same asset in numerous other leagues they don’t have to pay your premium price and can leverage their own portfolio to obtain a cost-effective deal. Using the portfolio to your advantage can quickly filter out undervalued offers plus gives you the ability to easily take 90% value deals – which is vital to building allies and trade partners, facilitating you towards your dynasty goals in the future. The small loss of value is easily recouped in a portfolio situation, with the positive of making a transaction towards your dynasty goal and building a trade partnership well worth 10% in value.
Also, consider the portfolio leverage you have when looking to increase or decrease your exposure to a specific player across your dynasty leagues. You have the ability to leverage your portfolio, send out uniform offers to many leagues and increase your exposure – with a better chance of success than sending a trade offer in one league. The portfolio leverage allows you to go after an asset like Sam Darnold for a 2025 second-round pick, potentially difficult to obtain from the Vikings fan in your home league, however likely to get a couple of trades accepted for the same price in your other 19 leagues, hypothetically thinking about this concept.
This also works with the opposite. Take the example of reducing your portfolio exposure to Jordan Mason. An idea is sending blanket offers around multiple leagues, however the more efficient way would be using the trade block and providing a trade value for guidance. You could get 15 offers for your 10 Mason shares, allowing you to take advantage of your portfolio and accept the best value offers available.
The final concept of using portfolio leverage in other aspects of dynasty, such as rookie drafts, startups and lineup decisions. In rookie drafts, due to the vast number of leagues within the portfolio, you don’t have to reach to gain a share of a certain rookie asset – as probability results in the same asset being attainable at a similar price in other rookie drafts. Similarly this process can be applied to dynasty startups, where you have multiple opportunities to acquire an asset across several drafts, allowing you to obtain it at a reasonable cost and avoid making an expensive acquisition or paying too much for an asset.
Also the portfolio allows you to leverage dynasty lineup decisions. Take for instance De’Von Achane in week two of the 2024 season, questionable for Thursday Night Football. To reduce the risk of him playing in a limited fashion or re-injury you could use the portfolio to play in for example 60% of your lineups, with other viable alternatives starting in the other 40%. As well as leveraging against injury the same can be considered for difficult weekly matchups – choosing to make the flex play in one league and bench the same player in another, thus using leverage to reduce overall risk. Portfolio leverage can be used in a number of scenarios, allowing for greater flexibility and making high-value dynasty decisions across your dynasty leagues.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
- Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Quarterbacks - January 16, 2025
- Dynasty Mind: Future Trends - January 1, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - December 20, 2024
