Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Six

In the immortal words of Ron Burgundy, “Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.” Through four weeks of the season Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins had yet to exceed 250 yards passing, and only had one game with multiple scores. His 41.5 points in week 5 now represent 41.3% of his yearly total, and were enough to vault him to just outside the QB1 tier (QB13).

In doing so he fully unlocked Drake London, continued his rapport with Darnell Mooney, and even brought Kyle Pitts back from the dead. Even Ray-Ray McLoud continued his upward trajectory.

Obviously these types of explosions won’t happen on a weekly basis, but Thursday Night Football served as a proper reminder of just who Cousins can be, as well as just how loaded the Falcons offense is. Rational minds may differ, but I’d be looking to get in on some of these players in short order.

Disclaimer time! Now that real, live football is upon us, I need to clarify the overarching rationale behind my advice. As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Therefore and for example, when I say a player is a “buy high,” it’s not solely due to the week he just had. Instead, guidance will also take into account his current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he performed.

Much as in previous iterations of this weekly series, I will list one player apiece who I’ve bucketed into the following categories:

• Buy low
• Buy high
• Sell low / Drop
• Sell high
• Add (Big Bucks)
• Add (Pennies)

One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.

With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week six:

Buy Low – Kirk Cousins, QB ATL

Week 5 Line: 42 for 58, 509-4-1 (0 carries)

I’m not going to bury the lede here, as sometimes the obvious answers are, well, obvious. In the “micro” day trading sector of fantasy football, it’s inarguable that Cousins’ price tag jumped after his immolation of Tampa Bay. But this means it’s entirely possible there are those looking to use this as a springboard to offload the veteran, perhaps not believing a full turnaround has been achieved.

Even if Cousins’ value increases, he was still recently viewed as a bottom-barrel dynasty asset, going undrafted in three of the four mocks comprising DLF’s current ADP. This means that even an acute value spike should still result in his imminent attainability. With his proven QB1 upside, this should yield dividends that vastly exceed Cousins’ cost.

Buy High – Nico Collins, WR HOU

Week 5 Line: 2-78-1 (2 targets; one injured hammy)

In what more or less amounts to the Houston version of the Thunderdome, three Texans wide receivers entered, and only Collins emerged. To that point, consider the following:

Statistics courtesy of 4for4.com.

Despite having one fewer touch than teammate Stefon Diggs, Collins is vastly outpacing his veteran teammate in efficiency, while besting Tank Dell in both efficiency and volume. All off-season speculation as to who would be the apple of quarterback CJ Stroud’s eye is effectively over. Despite missing much of week 5 following a hamstring injury, Collins leads the league in receiving yards and is tied for third in receptions. His alpha turn continues on its trajectory, and he may very well be considered as a consensus first-round dynasty startup pick soon.

Sell Low/Drop – Miles Sanders, RB CAR

Week 5 Line: 2-6-0, 2-27-0 (3 targets)

Prior to last season, and even during its latter phase I thought Sanders still represented something of a buy-low reclamation project. But with teammate Chuba Hubbard playing out of his mind, along with rookie Jonathon Brooks slated to return from injury in the near future, there’s no room at the inn and it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to find Sanders as a weekly inactive if he doesn’t return special teams value.

Continuing, as shown by their 1-4 record and four double-digit losses, Carolina isn’t a particularly good team. This is going to affect game script, as shown by Sanders’ five total opportunities on Sunday. Even Hubbard could only secure 13 carries despite accumulating nearly 100 yards. All told it’s hard to keep a team’s RB3 even in extraordinary circumstances, let alone it being the worst team in the league – unless you can sell Sanders as a handcuff it may be time to cut him loose.

Sell High – Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

Week 5 Line: 7-88-0 (8 targets)

The good? Pitts scored 15.8 PPR points, good for a finish as the weekly PPR TE5. This helped him move to a stature as the seasonal TE9, which sounds impressive until you realize he’s only 4.0 PPR points ahead of TE12 Brenton Strange. Which, I suppose, helps segue into the bad.

Pitts’ eight targets came on 58 Cousins dropbacks, equating to a somewhat paltry 13.8% target share. To that point, he was actually the #4 target on the day, getting doubled up by Mooney, seeing five fewer than London and one less than McCloud.

The green is nice, but that is more a byproduct of the positional scarcity. The fact is these aren’t game-breaking numbers, and if Cousins only chucks 35-40 passes instead of nearly 60, we’ll be seeing more yellow and red. Still a bit value-insulated as the TE6 by ADP, this could be another opportunity to get out.

Add (Big Bucks) – Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL

Week 5 Line: 7-87-1 (10 targets)

Some players may just need a bit more seasoning than others. Coming from small school South Alabama, it’s possibly Tolbert is one of these guys. To that point, with a 20-247-2 line through five games, Tolbert is already within two receptions and 19 yards of his entire 2023 season totals.

As shown above, Tolbert is a somewhat unexceptional athlete, though noting he’s above average in most metrics apart from the 3-cone drill. Importantly though he had a 97th percentile collegiate dominator, and 96th percent target share, showing an ability to put up numbers. While CeeDee Lamb is the top dog on offense, with tight end Jake Ferguson just behind, it could very well be Tolbert who continues to step up as a reliable third option. Though noting he may not be available (he was the sixth-to-last and fifth-to-last picks in two of the mocks comprising the current DLF ADP), if he is he warrants a look at 15-18% of your FAAB.

Add (Pennies) – Darius Slayton, WR NYG

Week 5 Line: 8-122-1 (11 targets)

All Slayton does is step up when needed and afforded the opportunity. As a late-round pick in 2019, he has now exceeded 700 yards in four of five seasons, functioning as a big play threat with a career average of 15.0 YPR. With rookie mega-star Malik Nabers out with a concussion this past week, Slayton did it again with 26.2 PPR points en route to leading the Giants to a victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.

Though Wan’Dale Robinson is listed as second on the depth chart by our friends at 4for4.com, he’s purely a low aDOT player at 7.6 YPR. While this may not be a direct competition with Nabers, notably the rookie is only averaging 11.0 YPR. And though Robinson has achieved 21 more targets than Slayton, it’s the veteran who leads in yardage.

While it’s a low bar, quarterback Daniel Jones is playing better football in 2024 than he did last season. Though still low at 6.4 YPA, he’s 0.7 yards ahead of his 2023 pace, while flipping his touchdown to interception mark to the positive side of the ledger. He’s also completing more passes, and all told is averaging a reasonable 52.8 weekly PPR points to his pass catchers. If the target tree remains consolidated to Nabers and perhaps one to two more targets behind him, there’s going to be some flex-worthy viability to be had. For 5% of my FAAB, I’d be willing to see if it’s Slayton who benefits.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.