Four weeks are in the bag - just about a quarter of the regular season. This is entirely subjective, but four weeks feels like enough time that we can be confident we’ve got an idea of how different teams and players are doing. The early-season excuse of “well they’ve only played X so far” fades a little bit.
Having said that, IDP is fundamentally a game of chance. Understanding that defensive stats are largely a product of volume (which is driven by which players coaches think are “best”) is relatively simple. But what really wins you games is the random times when that player delivers numbers and stats and points that are far more than what he “should”. Being good at IDP is just putting yourself in the best position for that to happen.
1 Kobie Turner has converted just one sack from 18 pressures
That’s a finisher ratio of just 5.5%. In his rookie season last year, he managed 12 sacks from 50 pressures (24%). The average for interior players is 14-15%.
Turner is a great example of how variance in this stat can fuel perception. The common logic will be that when he was playing next to Aaron Donald offensive linemen could not concentrate on him, so he racked up sacks. Now with Donald gone, he’s getting double-teamed more which is leading to reduced production.
It’s just not true. As a rookie, he delivered pressure on about 10% of his pass-rush snaps. As a sophomore, he’s on nearly 15%. It’s just that the sack totals are misleading.
2 Bryan Bresee has recorded just one tackle from 172 snaps
