Dynasty Trending Observations: Dontayvion Wicks, Mark Andrews and De’Von Achane
Every week we look around the social media landscape and identify the trends you should watch for your dynasty team. A few of those developments are below:
Missing the Mark
Soooooo, like holy crap man. The Mark Andrews era is just over? Like over over??
— Mike Wright (@FFHitman) September 30, 2024
In response to the post above, the answer appears to be yes! Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has been a non-factor in Baltimore’s first four games, seeing just nine targets. His season totals six receptions for 65 yards and no touchdowns, which looks more like a single-game stat line from Andrews than a month’s worth. In addition to seeing much less attention this year, Andrews has been much less efficient as well. His 10.8 yards per reception is nearly two full yards less than his career average of 12.7. All this while the Ravens’ offense is top five in both scoring and offensive DVOA. It’s certainly not the bounce-back season Andrews dynasty managers were hoping for after he missed the last six games of the 2023 regular season and had his worst statistical season since his rookie year.
If it weren’t for the league-wide decline in fantasy points for tight ends, the Andrews drop-off would be even more stark. He was a top-five fantasy tight end each season between 2019 and 2022 and even finished in the top 12 last year when he missed over a third of the season. If his current statistical trends continue this year, he’ll finish outside the top 40. Yikes.
Dynasty Impact: It’s possible that the decline should have been expected given Andrews turned 29 at the start of the season. Yet, there are other examples of older tight ends, years older than Andrews, who are still fantasy-relevant.
Or maybe it was the rise of third-year tight end Isaiah Likely that should have prompted a long look at Andrews. But despite a huge Week One stat line for Likely that saw him catch nine balls for 111 yards and a touchdown, LIkely and Andrews have almost the same production since then.
No, it may just be Andrews’ time as an elite tight end option is over and the rest of the league – both real and dynasty – know it. If you’re a current Andrews dynasty manager, you should trade him for what you can. Our DLF Trade Finder shows him being traded for veteran running backs before his zero-point game in Week Four.
In the Wick of Time
Dontayvion Wicks scored 22.3 fantasy points in Week 4 with Christian Watson injured early.
80% route participaiton
24% target share (led team)
35% air yards share (led team)Will rank as a WR2 for me next week if Watson out.
Available in 87% of Yahoo leagues.
Must add, y'all.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024
Unlike Packers offenses of years past, where there would be a single dominant receiver with the rest of the pass catchers left to pick up the scraps (think Davante Adams or Greg Jennings), this version of the Packers has a surplus of potentially elite pass catchers. From second-round picks like Christian Watson and Jayden Reed to mid-round picks like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, each could be a WR1 depending on the week.
At least, until recently. With the recent injury to Watson (what else is new?), a receiver is emerging as quarterback Jordan Love’s favorite, and it’s probably the least likely of the bunch. Wicks, a fifth-round pick in 2023 has been a lot of attention lately and rewarding his dynasty managers, most recently with five catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 13 targets. And with Watson expected to miss some time with another injury, it creates an opportunity for other Packers receivers to solidify a prominent role on the offense, namely Wicks. But how do we assess his, and the other Packers, dynasty value?
Dynasty Impact: Between the lack of high-end draft capital and the Packers’ ability to spot talent in any round of the NFL Draft, it’s been difficult for any Packer receiver to differentiate himself from the others. Indeed, their dynasty values have been painfully close during their short careers.
But if Wicks can continue to dominate Love’s reads, he’ll end up being not just the best of the bunch but a value. Viewed as the least valuable among the other Packers receivers, he could be the cheapest to acquire at the moment. Currently valued as a mid-round rookie pick, that price tag will go up with another big game. But it might be worth it to get the top Packers receivers earlier rather than later.
Off the Achane
Weeks 1-2:
De'Von Achane fantasy league-winner, great pick you smart person youWeeks 3-4:
De'Von Achane, sweet second-round pick you absolute idiot loser— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 1, 2024
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Dolphins, Miami fans, and their dynasty managers. After another off-season full of hope, that optimism was quickly obliterated once Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion. Besides being a very serious injury, and one that Tua should consider retiring from, it also derailed an entire franchise’s plans. Without a suitable backup that can move the offense in place of Tua, no Dolphin looks to be fantasy-relevant or at least as relevant as they are with Tua under center.
And while the passing game would appear to suffer the most, it could be argued that the running game will be impacted more. They were already suffering from the injury bug themselves when Raheem Mostert got hurt in Week One and hasn’t played since. One would think that the opportunity waiting for second-year back De’Von Achane would be his ticket to elite fantasy status, but he’s looked pedestrian. Gone is his nearly eight-yards-per-carry that he averaged last season and replaced by a very poor 3.1. He’s scored just once and has yet to notch a 100-yard game. Luckily, Achane’s receiving numbers are supplementing his weak rushing numbers, already totaling 20 receptions for 187 yards. But it shouldn’t be a surprise that even those are declining since the Tua injury.
Dynasty Impact: It’s early in the season but even if Achane rebounds, his start should be a reminder of how fickle running backs can be in dynasty leagues. Considered an elite dynasty running back in the off-season, he (and his production) have been brought back down to Earth. Couple that with the Tua injury and the fact that Miami will inevitably mix it up as to who’s leading the rushing attack and it doesn’t look great for Achane and his dynasty managers.
His current value on DLF still reflects his pre-Tua injury value but if you can get anywhere close to it, I would pull the trigger.
