Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week Four

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind. 

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

DYNASTY FIVE

Here are the five dynasty related stories that have my attention coming off another week of NFL action.

Jayden Daniels, QB1?

One of the best parts about the early part of a new NFL season is learning exactly how the new crop of rookies will perform. Some become major disappointments, while others turn into the next superstars of the league. The latter is what we are witnessing with Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. Through four games, Daniels has already produced three top-five weekly fantasy finishes, showing improvement as a passer each week. Along with leading the league is completion percentage, Daniels also has the same number of rushing touchdowns as Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor.

Daniels began the week as the QB10 in our DLF Dynasty Rankings and the QB11 in our September ADP data but he is sure to be one of the top risers in every form of dynasty rankings. In my superflex rankings, I recently moved Daniels up to my QB2 spot. Some would suggest this is too reactionary, based on just four weeks of information, but Daniels’ ascension is as much about the other struggling quarterbacks as it is the Commanders’ impressive start.

So many of the top-ranked dynasty quarterbacks, including Anthony Richardson, Patrick Mahomes, and fellow rookie Caleb Williams have started poorly and are losing value. Speaking of Mahomes, I recently polled my Twitter followers, comparing Daniels to the veteran. The results speak volumes…

Which QB do you prefer in a dynasty league?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 29, 2024

Is Garrett Wilson Good?

It’s probably time we start asking ourselves. Well, let’s be fair. Yes, the Jets receiver is good. He’s the WR1 for a playoff hopeful team, playing alongside one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. It seems like that would be enough to help Wilson live up to his lofty dynasty value. That just hasn’t happened yet though.

Wilson was a top-50 dynasty asset before he ever stepped on the field in 2022 and after a slow start to his career, Wilson carried a top-20 overall ADP into his first NFL off-season. He’s been a top-20 asset and among the WR1 ranks ever since. Since early in 2023, Wilson has even been a first-round pick. That’s 20 consecutive months but over that nearly two calendar year period, Wilson has managed just one top-12 fantasy performance.

I’ve heard all of the excuses, and as a fan of Wilson, I’ve made them myself, too. Yes, I know how bad Zach Wilson was and the Jets offensive coordinator only has his job because of Aaron Rodgers. Ultimately, none of that matters and it doesn’t make up for the disappointing fantasy performances Wilson continues to stack up on a weekly basis.

A quick look at the DLF Trade Finder shows that Wilson is still carrying significant value. He was recently flipped for Nico Collins in one deal and Jordan Love in another superflex trade. I expect that 20-month streak to end as the calendar turns to October and dynasty managers are spooked by Wilson’s slow start, so now is an ideal time to move Wilson for his name value and lofty ADP before both of those begin to erode.

Rice Cooked

Last week in this space, I shared my excitement for Chiefs’ second-year receiver Rashee Rice, who was one of the top stories of the early season. Unfortunately, Rice makes another appearance for all of the wrong reasons. Mid-way through the first quarter in Sunday’s Chiefs-Chargers matchup, Rice suffered a knee injury following a Patrick Mahomes’ interception. The exciting young wideout had to be helped from the field and was soon carted to the locker room and quickly ruled out for the remainder of the game.

Post-game comments from Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid were not encouraging as reports began to flow that the team expected tests to reveal a season-ending torn ACL for their best offensive weapon. Although the fantasy community is still awaiting the official report, all indications suggest Rice’s season has come to a way-too-early end.

Our injury expert, Jeff Mueller, shared some of his thoughts about Rice’s injury, and let’s just say it was not encouraging…

This isn’t the most helpful update but reading between the lines, I’ll speculate:

1. Surgery is definitely needed

2. Potential for multiple surgeries needed? (Ex: Nick Chubb)

3. Likely need to get swelling down/ROM increased before surgery occurs, hence “windows” discussed https://t.co/ZdkkULy8LP

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 30, 2024

My typical move and advice for dynasty managers would include attempting to buy low on the injured player. Rice’s specific situation might be a bit different. First of all, buying low is simply not as easy as it used to be. Years ago, once a player suffered a serious injury, his value would be decimated, making him an easy player to take a risk on through trade. Now, dynasty managers have become savvier and understand that elite dynasty assets are worth waiting for, meaning that value dip doesn’t really happen. Also, Rice still has that off-field issue hanging over his head which could mean a league-imposed suspension on top of his long recovery from injury. Because of this, I plan on holding off on trade attempts until we learn more, both about the injury and Rice’s off-field issues.

A Fields Day

Just a few days after reports of lingering injury issues for veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, current Steelers starter Justin Fields put on a show. The former Bears quarterback eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark for just the second time in his career, along with 55 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. That wild stat line sent me searching…

Justin Fields’ day:

312 passing yards, 1 passing TD
55 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs

He’s the 9th player to ever go for 300/1 & 50/2 in a game.

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 29, 2024

After four straight solid performances from Fields, including this week’s QB1 finish, it would be a surprise if Fields relinquished Pittsburgh’s starting job anytime soon. Following the trade that sent him from the Windy City to the Steel City, Fields’ dynasty value was wiped out. Fields’ 1QB dynasty ADP slid more than five rounds in just one month and fell even further in subsequent months as he went from a top-12 dynasty quarterback to outside of the top 200 players overall.

Now, Fields is back on the rise. As mentioned earlier, the failings of the majority of quarterbacks early in the season are giving an even larger boost to the ones who are performing, and that includes Fields.

CMC, Down and Out

Because I typically treat this article as a weekly recap from a dynasty point of view, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to be mentioned. McCaffrey’s saga has been confusing and frustrating, with the past four weeks feeling more like months. Set to make their 2024 debut on Monday night back in Week One, McCaffrey was a surprise scratch and it soon became clear that the team knew all along McCaffrey’s injury was more serious than any of us knew.

One month into the season, McCaffrey is not close to playing and just got back from a European treatment in hopes of getting back on the field soon. Instead, the latest report tells us that McCaffrey is now dealing with Achilles tendonitis in both legs.

Here’s more from Jeff about his outlook for McCaffrey…

Headline is scary and majority of people will be scared off, but:

1. Not surprising that his other side got inflamed/overworked while pushing through prior Achilles tendinitis. Altered biomechanics.

2. If this was a huge issue, CMC would not have ramped up his rehab today.

I’m… https://t.co/e6pPkClV6m

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 30, 2024

So, what does this do to CMC’s dynasty value? We’ll know for sure in the coming days, but it obviously won’t be good. This past off-season, McCaffrey became the first ever 28-year-old running back to appear in the first round of our monthly ADP data. As amazing as he’s been throughout his career and especially during his 49ers’ tenure, this was enough to scare me off.

I do expect McCaffrey to fall out of the top-12 dynasty running backs with his return nowhere in sight and would strongly consider selling if the return is anywhere close to his pre-season value. Recent trades from the DLF Trade Finder suggest possible targets include Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Jonathan Taylor, or a future first-round rookie pick. I would gladly take any of these in return for McCaffrey right now.

Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week Four