Dynasty Trending Observations: Quarterback Landscape Shuffle
It’s hard to believe we’re nearly a month into the season. Dynasty managers now have a better idea of whether their team is rebuilding (or needs to) or should make a push for a championship. Below are a few trends this week that could help you make those decisions.
Sam, I Am
Sam Darnold is good at football 🤌
— J.J. McCarthy (@jjmccarthy09) September 22, 2024
One of the biggest storylines of the first three weeks of this season is the Minnesota Vikings. Considered a team in transition after allowing quarterback Kirk Cousins to walk, they drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of the draft. Then they signed veteran Sam Darnold to be his babysitter. But someone forgot to tell the Vikings they were rebuilding as they’ve won their first three games of the season and Darnold has looked incredible. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all three games – including four in Week Three – and is one of the surprise favorites for MVP.
It’s been a long and winding road for Darnold. The former third-overall pick flamed out as a starter in New York and is on his fourth team in five seasons, filling the veteran backup role in each stop. That was supposed to be the case this year after Minnesota drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. McCarthy was widely expected to sit and learn to start the season but surely would have been in line to start if Darnold and the Vikings played themselves out of the playoffs. Then two things happened – McCarthy got hurt before the season began, ensuring it was Darnold’s team for 2024, and the Vikings started winning. They’re now 3-0 and Darnold has the offense rolling. Darnold’s re-draft managers are thrilled but what about his dynasty managers (if any)?
Dynasty Impact: It’s early in the season but there’s no reason to think Darnold can’t keep this up and be a serviceable fantasy quarterback, even in superflex leagues. He’s been a QB1 in fantasy scoring against good-to-great defenses like San Francisco and Houston already. His main weapon, Justin Jefferson, is healthy and hasn’t missed a beat while Darnold and the Vikings can expect reinforcements down the road when the injured Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson return.
Darnold’s dynasty value was outside the top 30 before the season.
And while it’s improved significantly, and he’s certainly played his way into starting at least another season next year, the big question will be where? Minnesota drafted McCarthy to be the quarterback of the future while on a rookie contract. He’ll be completely healed when 2025 comes around which should make Darnold expendable. I’d be wary of rolling with Darnold if he plays anywhere else besides Minnesota and under coach Kevin O’Connell. Sure, if he lands on a branch of the Sean McVay tree, he could recoup that value. But it would be a gamble.
Standing Pat
Patrick Mahomes is only a streaming QB, not a starter. He has hit 20 fantasy points (4pt) in only 17.6% of his last 17 games. That is an F in our consistency metric.
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) September 23, 2024
While the post above may seem like blasphemy, it’s still the reality of Patrick Mahomes. No one doubts that he and the Chiefs are in the middle of a dynasty as they’ve continued to find ways to win without Mahomes throwing for 300 yards a game, something he’s done three times in his career. Kansas City is 3-0 this season despite Mahomes averaging a career-low 220 passing yards per game, which is nearly 40 yards less per game than his previous career-low set last year. But he’s also thrown four interceptions so far which has him on pace to set a career-high in those too. For fantasy purposes, he’s a low-end QB1 and looks like the streaming option mentioned above.
Dynasty Impact: Mahomes’ decline in fantasy scoring started last season. As mentioned, he averaged a career-low 260 passing yards; the 27 passing touchdowns were his lowest in four years; and his 14 interceptions were a career-high. He still finished as a top-eight fantasy quarterback but even that was a career low.
You can see a slight loss of confidence in his overall dynasty ADP heading into this season and it’s sure to go lower if this trend continues.
It’s not crazy to entertain moving Mahomes to a league mate for a King’s ransom, especially if it can mean multiple pieces for your dynasty team. The price would be even higher in a superflex league but so could the reward. At the same time, there are several quarterback options that are close to Mahomes in fantasy scoring. He’s not the elite option he once was so don’t treat him that way.
QB1 Swap
No team in the Super Bowl era has done what the #Commanders just did: two consecutive games with ZERO turnovers and ZERO punts.
Take a bow Jayden Daniels.
Take a bow Kliff Kingsbury.
Take a bow Terry McLaurin.
Take a bow Washington Commanders.What a night. pic.twitter.com/YlcgqCYEDQ
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) September 24, 2024
Monday night was not a great night for first-overall picks. There was the walking disaster that is Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars who were completely outmatched by the Bills.
Then there’s this year’s first overall pick, Caleb Williams, who didn’t play on Monday night but is looking more and more iffy after second-overall pick Jayden Daniels‘s first three weeks. The post above describes just how efficient Daniels and the Commanders have been so far and there’s no choice but to assign that to Daniels. He’s completed an incredible 80% of his passes while throwing for 221 yards per game and two touchdowns. He’s run for another 171 yards and three more touchdowns. He also has yet to throw a pick or lose a fumble. No matter the scoring in your league, Daniels has been an elite fantasy option.
By comparison, Williams has looked, well, like a rookie quarterback. Touted as the best quarterback prospect since Lawrence, and with a stellar supporting cast, Williams has looked lost at times. Talented but lost. He’s completing a little under 60% of his passes, averaging 210 passing yards, thrown for two touchdowns but threw four interceptions. He’s also lost a fumble and is more like a low-end QB2 in fantasy leagues.
Both quarterbacks have their whole career ahead of them but should we start re-evaluating where they were drafted?
Dynasty Impact: While Williams was the consensus first quarterback taken in rookie drafts and highest in dynasty ADP, Daniels has quickly closed the gap and was doing so even before the season started.
Daniels’s dynasty value is sure to skyrocket after his impressive first month. But don’t jump the gun on acquiring him just yet. Yes, he’s dominating but his biggest obstacle is yet to come when defenses have game tape to study and plan a different way to defend him. Williams’ value won’t move much even with his unimpressive start. He’s a hold and, if a current Williams manager is really antsy, a buy candidate.
