Weekly Matchups: Three Surprise Week Four Starters

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Looking at how teams have performed against certain positions and then targeting or avoiding those players each week has been a huge game-changer in my weekly lineup decisions. With that in mind, this year, I’ll focus most of my attention on that weekly matchup info, giving you a few must-start or must-sit players each week, based on the trends and numbers.

Each week, collecting and studying this information helps me to identify players to target and avoid when putting together my fantasy football lineups. Sometimes, my prior thoughts about a player can make it difficult to follow through and trust the data, but more often than not, the numbers work and the surprise starter actually hits. Here are a few players to take a shot on in Week Four that might normally be sitting on your bench.

Daniel Jones, QB NYG

The Giants and Jones got off to a rough start and after one week, head coach Brian Daboll had to announce that the team would stick with Jones as the team’s starter. Over the past two weeks, thanks in large part to the talent of rookie receiver Malik Nabers, Jones has posted solid fantasy numbers. Jones has finished as a QB1 in each of the past two weeks, posting finishes of QB11 and QB6 and averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game. This week, the Giants face division-rival Dallas, who has allowed back-to-back top-four fantasy performances to Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson. Jackson torched Dallas on the ground, rushing for 87 yards. While Jones has the ability to pick up big chunks of yards on the ground, he hasn’t done that yet this year.

Jerome Ford, CLE

Facing Dallas in Week One, Ford impressed as the workhorse back for the Browns. In Week Two, Cleveland turned their backfield into a committee, adding veteran D’Onta Foreman. Clearly unhappy with the results, Ford regained a large share of work last week, though he struggled after his team fell behind. Now, Ford is set to face the hapless Raiders, who just allowed both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders to finish as top-24 fantasy backs for the week. Ford could be looking at a career-high in rushing yards against this flailing Las Vegas defense, who have allowed a league-high four top-24 games to opposing backs through three weeks.

Tee Higgins, WR CIN

Maybe this one shouldn’t be a big surprise. The veteran Higgins made his season debut on Monday night against the Commanders, finishing with a modest three grabs for 39 yards. Higgins did draw an end-zone target, along with a two-point conversion target that should’ve been flagged for pass interference. While upstart Andrei Iosivas outperformed Higgins last week, I’m expecting the talent to show through and rust to wear off this week. The Bengals, still winless, face off with the Carolina Panthers. Coming off a surprise win against the Raiders, Carolina should be confident that they can play with Cincy. I’m not sure they can stop the receiver position though. The Panthers have already allowed four top-24 fantasy games to opposing wideouts, including two last week to the Raiders. It was interesting that Carolina was able to slow superstar Davante Adams as secondary options Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers stung them routinely. If that repeats itself this week, Higgins is in line for a big day.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 3 QB1s

Season-Long QB1s

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Jaguars and Commanders have each allowed a QB1 performance in all three games this season. Unfortunately for those two squads, this is likely not the week that changes as they are both set to face superstar quarterbacks. Jacksonville will be looking for answers against CJ Stroud and the Texans while Kyler Murray could run wild against the Washington defense.

Three other teams are allowing more than 23 fantasy points to the quarterback position, making them an easy target this week as well. Those teams are the Rams (vs. Caleb Williams), Ravens (vs. Josh Allen), and Cowboys (vs. Jones.)

A whopping ten teams have yet to surrender a QB1 performance through three weeks. Specifically, five of those are allowing less than 15 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Those are situations to avoid and looking at the opposing signal callers this week, most of these should be easy decisions. The Jets (vs. Bo Nix), Steelers (vs. Anthony Richardson), and Seahawks (vs. Jared Goff) are holding enemy quarterbacks under 13 fantasy points per game. Just off that pace are the Bears (vs. Matthew Stafford) and Dolphins (vs. Will Levis.)

Running Backs

Week 3 RB1s

Season-Long RB1s

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

Four teams have already given up four top-24 fantasy performances to opposing backfields. Those teams are the ones to target this week and include the Cardinals (vs. Brian Robinson), Rams (vs. D’Andre Swift), Raiders (vs. Ford), and Patriots (vs. Jordan Mason.) Unfortunately, veteran Austin Ekeler suffered a head injury last week and seems likely to miss this week’s game. That’s yet another push for Robinson to find a place in fantasy lineups. The Cowboys are actually the team allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs, more than six points per game ahead of the next worst run defense. This looks like yet another week to give veteran Devin Singletary a shot as a fantasy starter.

The Saints are the only team in the league yet to allow a top-24 fantasy game. That could be tested this week as they face division-rival Atlanta and Bijan Robinson. Despite the matchup, there’s no way he should be out of fantasy lineups.

Other difficult matchups this week include the Lions (vs. Zach Charbonnet), Steelers (vs. Jonathan Taylor), Falcons (vs. Alvin Kamara), and Chiefs (vs. JK Dobbins.)

Wide Receivers

Week 3 WR1s

Season-Long WR1s

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

As usual, it’s the Commanders at the top of this receiver list, giving up five top-24 performances through just three games. Cardinals rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr is an obvious weekly start, but depth wideouts Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson could be worthy of a flex position against the Commanders. Other receivers to consider getting in your lineups include Chase, Higgins, and Iosivas (vs. CAR), and the easy calls of Justin Jefferson (vs. GB), George Pickens (vs. IND), Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin (vs. PHI.)

The Steelers (vs. Michael Pittman), Seahawks (vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams), and Titans (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle) have yet to surrender a top-24 game to opposing wideouts. On this list, I’m sticking with St. Brown no matter what, but I’m definitely nervous about the rest, including the Dolphins duo with a poor quarterback situation and tough matchup.

George Pickens | Credit: Brett Davis

Tight Ends

Week 3 TE1s

Season-Long TE1s

Most TE1 Games Allowed

In a year in which it has been nearly impossible to find consistent tight end production, the matchups matter more than ever. You can’t just “start your studs” when there are no studs at the position. Three teams have already allowed a trio of TE1 games. The Bills, Packers, and Rams have each allowed valuable fantasy performances to opposing tight ends. This week that means Cole Kmet (vs. LAR) and Johnny Mundt (vs. GB) could once again surprise. It might even mean Mark Andrews (vs. BUF) can produce. Other tight ends with friendly matchups include Hayden Hurst (vs. KC), Dalton Kincaid (vs. BAL), and Mike Gesicki (vs. CAR.)

Several teams have yet to allow a TE1 performance this year. To narrow things down a bit, let’s focus on the four teams that are somehow allowing less than five points per game to the tight end position. I would not want to rely on these veterans this week. Hunter Henry (vs. SF), Jonnu Smith (vs. TEN), and Cade Otton (vs. PHI) are all easy fades. The Buccaneers are also on this list, though I think I’d stick with Dallas Goedert. Coming off a massive Week Three performance, the current TE1 on the season could be in for another big game if receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith miss more time.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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