Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Three
Life in the NFL happens fast. Injuries come and go, but a lot can change in the dynasty valuation of a player in a matter of weeks. This series discusses key details in a player’s current recovery tract and injury projections for the implications on that player’s dynasty value. Be sure to check out Kyle Trimble’s weekly injury round-up for immediate injury information.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
The first topic is the most difficult to discern after Tagovailoa suffered his fourth concussion in two years. He has already been placed on IR and will miss the minimum four games, but the key question will be: how does that team move forward and how does he move forward after this most recent incident? Initial reports have surfaced that he does not plan to retire, but I do believe there is still a chance that he and his family discuss retirement, especially as the time approaches when he will be meeting with neurologists to determine clearance to return versus other options. It is a very sensitive and a very delicate situation for this young man, so I think content surrounding the topic needs to respect that aspect as best as possible while also acknowledging that this is a very volatile situation in dynasty.
Ultimately, you must decide what to do with him on your teams. I would not recommend acquiring or “buying low” at this time, but if you currently roster him and believe that he will come back, it is certainly valid to hold instead of selling for a third or fourth or some other very cheap asset. If he does return to the NFL, I expect it to take a while for clearance while keeping in mind that his last concussion in December of 2022 required five weeks for clearance on February 1, 2023. If he returns this season, it will likely be in the third quarter of the season and near fantasy playoffs. I have no idea what he will decide to do and unfortunately this situation makes all of the Dolphins fantasy assets volatile given the shaky quarterback options on the roster. Aside from fantasy, I’m rooting and praying for this young man, particularly for full health and healing.
Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
Placed on IR prior to week two, I do believe his Achilles tendinitis will require more than just four weeks to go through the required stages in order to return to play. Of note, he had his worst day of practice in regards to pain levels on the Thursday before week two, indicating that this was slowly getting worse over the last few weeks, necessitating the shutdown on IR. The tendon will have to heal and reduce in inflammation, he will need to ramp up his strength training, ramp up his workload in explosive movement patterns and speed and agility, and increase volume and intensity in football-specific drills prior to returning.
This is why I believe it will require at least until after the 49ers’ week nine bye, with a chance to return week 10 which would give him approximately eight weeks to go through each stage for safe return to play without his Achilles tendinitis flaring back up. I do believe that will be enough time for him to heal with a legit chance of returning to his prior elite-per-touch form. However, I also believe that the bigger picture will be in mind for SF, leading them to split the workload 50/50 or 40/60 between McCaffrey and Jordan Mason upon McCaffrey’s return, preserving him for the NFL playoffs. I think the elite 1.01 utilization will be long gone, and the trade value will likely indicate this as well.
Mason becomes a very intriguing dynasty buy with likely staying power through 2025 as he enters next season as a restricted free agent. I would recommend trading McCaffrey away, but not for fifty cents on the dollar. I would rather hold him on my roster and bank on that return of elite-per-touch form once he is back to playing instead of trading him away for a huge discount. Gauge value but do not panic. This injury should not be a dynasty value tanker for him, though many are treating it that way.
Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
Early reports coming out after his surgery have indicated that his timeline should remain in the 6-8 week range considering there was no extra ligament damage or secondary damage outside of the fibula fracture. The timeline is still a fairly optimistic one, but I do believe as return in week nine or 10 is possible, with an expected production dip of close to 20%. It would also take him several weeks to ramp back up to his prior efficiency and utilization, placing a near full return at or after fantasy playoffs for this season. This would be increasingly risky in dynasty considering the Chiefs attempted to sign Josh Jacobs and reportedly were interested in other running backs as well, potentially due to the known injury risk that Pacheco carries.
If you were to buy low, now is the perfect time to do so, but if you were hoping to sell it likely makes more sense to hold and wait until closer to his potential return now that we know his projected timeline and that his season is not over. His value is likely at the lowest right now, and inevitably when reports surface that he is set to begin practicing or is close to an actual NFL return, his value should increase again. If that does occur as projected, that would be the best window to sell, unless you can actually get a good deal right now where you are not selling at a huge discount. Either way, in dynasty I would strongly recommend selling, but I would prefer to bank on a value bump later on and sell closer to his projected return date instead of right now. I anticipate Kansas City pursuing a replacement running back in 2025.
Joe Mixon, RB HOU
While reports have not been completely clear on the specifics of his injury, there have been multiple reports indicating his injury is not major. I lean towards it being a high ankle sprain which will likely cost him one to three weeks plus another two to three weeks of 15-20% production dip. Now would be a good time to attempt to buy at a discount, especially if you have a contending roster. Mixon is signed in Houston through 2025 with an out into 2026, and fits the offense very well as seen in his first two games. I expect him to return to his prior form by mid-season and produce as a contending running back through 2025.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
The Rams are in a dire situation with nine total players already on IR, with a pending decision on whether or not to place Kupp on IR too. If his injury is worse than the team is letting on, then I would expect them to place him on IR by the Saturday deadline. However, if this is solely a high ankle sprain without ligament damage, I expect them to keep him off of IR but have him return close to week seven, after their week six bye. This would give him adequate time to heal and return with minimal reinjury risk or production dip.
His return may even coincide with Puka Nacua’s return, but I would anticipate Kupp returning close to his prior role in earning a 39% TPRR, 7.22 ADOT, 20% end zone target share, and high PPR upside. Even if he returns at 80% of those numbers, he will largely pay off at price. Consider inquiring on any injury discount, as many managers may be scared off of him given his past injury concerns or the risk of the Rams packing it in if they start the season in losing territory.
Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Speaking of injury risk, Nacua entered the season with high injury risk and even injured his right knee in camp prior to the season. He reinjured it, this time spraining his PCL, which can often lead to lingering discomfort and joint laxity throughout the majority of the season. We saw a similar situation play out with Ezekiel Elliott in his last season with Dallas prior to leaving for the Patriots. The hope here is that the sprain was closer to mild than moderate and heals with rest and recovery while being placed on IR.
In theory, he has a decent chance of returning to play close to week seven after their bye. My recommendation would be to hold as of right now, but if he returns, plays well, and sees a value increase back up to WR1 value in dynasty, I would recommend pivoting to another WR1 upside player who has less injury risk. Keep in mind here that Matthew Stafford is essentially playing on a re-structured one-year deal with the Rams, so the quarterback situation could be slightly volatile for Nacua in dynasty. I like the eventual value pivot once he returns to form.
Marquise Brown, WR KC
Betting on himself on a one-year deal in Kansas City unfortunately did not pan out after he suffered yet another injury. This sternoclavicular ligament repair should not lead to issues in the future, as recurrence and long-term production regression are not common after these surgeries, but his volatility of total injury risk plus contract uncertainty places him at high risk in dynasty value. He is the type of asset who I would pivot off of for another very cheap asset. You likely will not gain much by stashing him.
Hopefully this information is helpful in terms of dynasty outlook on these injuries. Hang in there, week two was fairly brutal in terms of high-tier players suffering injuries. There is a long season ahead of us and I will continue to cover the Dynasty Injury Forecast every three weeks in-season. Feel free to follow me @jmthrivept for injury content.
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week 16 - December 21, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Ten - November 9, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven - October 19, 2024
