Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Two
Football is back! And while a single data point is better than no data points, this was an incredibly weird week from which to draw conclusions. To that point, the offensive fireworks fizzled hard – excluding Monday Night Football (this article is authored every Monday afternoon), a whopping 17 NFL quarterbacks were held to 200 passing yards or fewer, with only two signal callers achieving 300+ passing yards. Further, there were only six 100+ yard runners, including Lamar Jackson who is not, in fact, a ball carrier. So while there may still be some actionable information as we seek to discern the signal amongst the noise, as far as I’m concerned NFL week one comes complete with a monstrous asterisk.
Disclaimer time! Now that real, live football is upon us, I need to clarify the overarching rationale behind my advice. As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Therefore and for example, when I say a player is a “buy high,” it’s not solely due to the week he just had. Instead, guidance will also take into account his current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he performed.
Much as in previous iterations of this weekly series, I will list one player apiece who I’ve bucketed into the following categories:
- Buy low
- Buy high
- Sell low / Drop
- Sell high
- Add (Big Bucks)
- Add (Pennies)
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week two:
Buy Low – Taysom Hill, TE NO
Week 1 Line: 1-1-0 (2 targets), 5-35-0 (rushing)
As the to-date PPR TE22, Hill wasn’t out there winning weeks. But the Saints-Panthers contest was a very effective microcosm as to exactly why we shouldn’t regard these single data points as gospel. To that point, New Orleans jumped out to an early and insurmountable 30-0 lead, eventually defeating hapless Carolina by 37 points. Apart from quarterback Derek Carr’s sudden turn into efficiency and Alvin Kamara’s RB1 lockdown, I’m not taking too much away from a blowout that resulted in 11 Jamaal Williams carries.
Back to Hill. There was both good and bad – starting with the latter, he only played on 21 of 66 offensive snaps, while watching fellow tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson corral touchdown catches. Johnson’s return to fantasy relevance isn’t terribly surprising given the prior viability he displayed, but Moreau could function as a fly in the ointment if he continues to siphon away looks.
So what’s the good here?
Simply put, Hill continued his Swiss Army knife utilization with five carries and two targets. When juxtaposed with his playing time, this means he earned an opportunity once every three snaps. Will that pace continue? I’d say it’s highly unlikely, but it once again shows that when it comes to tight ends, Hill possesses a level of upside unmatched by the rest of his positional cohort. Still essentially free of charge, there’s nothing but potential benefit here.
Buy High – Zay Flowers, WR BAL
Week 1 Line: 6-37-0 (10 targets)
Continuing with elite opportunity shares, we’ll pivot to the ascending second-year Ravens receiver. And while tight end Isaiah Likely stole the show, I believe it’s Flowers who possesses the most predictable path towards continued target hogging.
Statistics courtesy of 4for4.com.
As shown by our friends at 4for4, Flowers was a near full-time player who managed to parlay 71 snaps into 12 total opportunities. Solely in the passing game Flowers was the recipient of just under a quarter of the team’s targets, which doesn’t include four additional opportunities negated by penalty (two defensive pass interference calls and two receptions overturned). To be clear, there were a lot of empty-calorie (read: low aDOT) receptions, but yards after the catch are a staple of Flowers’ game, and he still received a few deep shots against a stingy Chiefs defense. When (not if) he converts those looks, PPR WR1 viability is possible.
Sell Low/Drop – Dalton Schultz, TE HOU
Week 1 Line: 3-16-0 (3 targets)
This is what rock bottom looks like.
We knew that the off-season addition of receiver Stefon Diggs, coupled with the healthy return of Tank Dell, was likely to yield a more diverse target tree as compared to the 2023 season. And while, once again, we should exercise some caution in extrapolating across a full season, it’s hard to ignore a minuscule 9.4% target share achieved by the veteran tight end. To further emphasize that point, Schultz was tied for fourth in looks with running back Joe Mixon, while Diggs, Dell and Nico Collins combined for nearly two-thirds of the intended passing volume.
I don’t think Schultz is a cut candidate just yet, as we know many players could be just an injury away from better statistical output. But in the absence of that, he may slowly become a roster clogger outside of very deep leagues (Schultz is currently signed with Houston through his age-30 season). If you could add him to the back end of a larger deal, or find an owner looking to prospectively buy low, you might receive value now that won’t be there in a few months.
Sell High – D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Week 1 Line: 10-30-0, 0-0-0 (1 target)
It’s not as if we didn’t already know this, but as was made evident in Friday Night Football (still a bit weird to type that) and despite a late 2023 malaise the Philadelphia Eagles are still a pretty darn good offense. And while I won’t rule out a seismic turnaround from the NFL Draft’s #1 overall pick, the other side of this coin is that the Chicago Bears… are not. At least not yet.
That’s going to be a problem for Swift, who has already proven to be a poor fit as a workhorse, instead needing to rely on efficiency, receptions and scoring plays for fantasy output. Unfortunately for the veteran, he provided none of the three in week one.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Continuing, the Bears displayed a diversity of utilization in their carries. While Swift led the way at running back, all told he received only 45% of the team’s carries, while quarterback Caleb Williams, two wide receivers and two backup ball carriers secured the rest. If Swift doesn’t start catching the ball more (Williams only targeted a running back once), and/or if the Bears offense fails to get right, RB3/4 output isn’t outside the range of outcomes.
Add (Big Bucks) – Alec Pierce, WR IND
Week 1 Line: 3-125-1 (3 targets)
Take notes Schultz, as this is how you make good on three targets!
It’s probably important to remember that Pierce is a large, fast boundary receiver. And while those prototype physical abilities were wasted with the popgun-armed Gardner Minshew, second-year signal caller Anthony Richardson is a different type of dude. With continued progression from both players, it would not be surprising to see Pierce build off a quietly solid rookie season (41-593-2) and prove that his second year was not reflective of what he brings to the table.
Metrics courtesy of MockDraftable.
Volume may be tough to come by, as the Colts attempted a mere 19 passes and are clearly a run-first operation. Rookie Adonai Mitchell represents yet another hurdle, and actually out-targeted Pierce Sunday. But playing more snaps than any receiver not named Michael Pittman, Pierce has the potential for DeSean Jackson-lite production in 2023, with single plays affording the ability to win weeks. Only drafted in one of the mocks comprising the August ADP, I’d be a buyer for 25% of my FAAB stack.
Add (Pennies) – Jeff Wilson Jr, RB MIA
Week 1 Line: 5-26-0, 0-0-0 (0 targets)
“You can’t make the club from the tub.”
Sometimes the best ability is availability. And with teammates Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane already banged up, some bets could be hedged. And given his somewhat surprising active status while rookie Jaylen Wright was a healthy scratch, Wilson could very well be the next man up.
Dating back to his time as a 49er, Wilson has always shown an ability to put forth solid production over short spurts as a bell cow ball carrier, with a lifetime 4.5 YPC average. He’s also shown juice as a pass catcher, with an aggregate 8.0 YPR. There are no guarantees here, as it’s entirely possible neither Mostert nor Achane miss any time – but health has been an issue for both players over their respective careers. Should he be forced into action, Wilson has significant upside in Miami’s explosive offense. I’d spend 3-4% of my FAAB with the knowledge I could drop him if the workload doesn’t materialize.
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