Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week One

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

DYNASTY FIVE

Likely Story

Save all your “likely” puns. No one saw this coming. Only in Week One could a game featuring Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce (and Taylor Swift) and many others end with Isaiah Likely stealing the show, and nearly the win.

In the 2024 NFL opener, Ravens “backup” tight end Likely went off, leading the team with nine receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. Likely came within inches of a last-second, game-winning touchdown before stepping out of bounds as time expired.

There may have been some frustration from fantasy managers because Likely couldn’t finish the job or because the tight end was sitting on the fantasy bench, but it’s hard to view this as anything other than a promising sign of things to come. One of my favorite parts of the opening weeks of a new season is learning which players will transform into fantasy stars. Last year brought us players like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, and Likely is the early favorite this season.

This performance is not a total surprise, considering how well Likely played last season when Mark Andrews was out of the lineup. Using the DLF Player Splits App is a reminder of how Likely’s production spiked when the team needed him.

So, is this a fluke or can we expect Likely to continue to perform as a top-twelve tight end? While the disappointing performance of Mark Andrews is sure to turn around, the Ravens’ wide receiver depth continues to be a concern, beyond Zay Flowers. This makes me think we will continue to see Likely as one of the focal points of their offense. The Ravens used 12 personnel, which includes two tight ends on the field, as their base offense. Even when they shifted to 11 personnel, Andrews played only two snaps more than Likely.

We are still working on our updated September dynasty ADP, but expect Likely to see a massive rise from his TE19 August ADP. In my dynasty rankings, I moved Likely up to TE13. It’s reasonable to now consider Likely among the dynasty TE1 range.

Injury Woes

Unfortunately, this section will likely be a regular recurring portion of this weekly dynasty recap. The preseason had been relatively kind to dynasty managers when it came to injuries (sorry, JJ McCarthy managers and Vikings’ fans) but that all came crashing down in this opening weekend.

• It began on Friday evening in the game’s final drive as Packers quarterback Jordan Love was tackled awkwardly as he attempted to lead a game-winning drive. Love immediately grabbed his lower leg and was forced from the game, relieved by newly-acquired backup Malik Willis. We eventually learned that Love had suffered a knee injury that would keep him out between three and six weeks. According to reports, the team is not planning on signing a veteran replacement, which suggests they expect Love to return sooner rather than later. With Willis expected to start, the Packers’ offense will be difficult to trust in the coming weeks. This team was already a challenge for fantasy managers because of the depth of weapons but this is a new wrinkle that will push Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, et al to fantasy benches for the time being.
• The first Sunday of the season ended with some bad news and multiple players left the Lions/Rams matchup with injuries. Most notable for fantasy managers was sophomore receiver Puka Nacua, who seemed to reaggravate the knee injury he was dealing with during the pre-season. After briefly returning to the field, Nacua was carted off prior to the second-half start. As of this writing, we are still waiting on an official report, but DLF injury expert Jeff Mueller suggested on Twitter that he expects this to lead to a multiple-week absence, at best. Following Nacua’s departure, the Rams got rookie Jordan Whittington much more involved in the offense. While he wasn’t able to finish the job, Whittington is a waiver wire target this week.
• While Love and Nacua stole the injury headlines, other key fantasy assets came away from Week One hobbling, including Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson, Vikings wideout Jordan Addison, and Browns tight end David Njoku. The Vikings were already missing tight end TJ Hockenson, so if Addison misses any significant time, we could see wide receiver Jalen Nailor become fantasy relevant. The lack of tight end depth in the dynasty space makes the potential loss of Ferguson and Njoku sting even more.

Questionable QB Play

My friend and fellow DLF Podcast co-host reminded me as we watched the Sunday slate that, in general, the defense is always ahead of the offense early in the NFL season. That was evident in the play of quarterbacks around the league in Week One. It is no surprise how bad many of the quarterbacks around the league often play, but that felt like a widespread epidemic in Week One.

Bad decision after bad decision punctuated the difference between the quarterbacks we saw in the Thursday and Friday night island games and the main slate of Sunday quarterbacks.

This tweet from Marcus Mosher shows how bad things were for Sunday’s signal callers.

Net passing yards from Sunday afternoon.

The average is 168 pic.twitter.com/EEhrL07ZtJ

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) September 9, 2024

We saw especially poor performances from Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Will Levis, Bryce Young, and Deshaun Watson. The latter has come under fire once again due to the combination of his off-field history, horrendous contract, and pathetic play on Sundays. Of course, this poor quarterback play overall makes it difficult to rely on the offensive teammates of these quarterbacks, eliminating options for weekly lineup decisions.

Rookie Standouts

It might have gotten lost in the quiet performance of star rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr, but overall the first year pass-catchers got off to an amazing start in Week One.

This note from Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points shows just how involved most of the rookie wideouts were in their respective debuts on Sunday.

5. Target shares among rookie WRs:

Marvin Harrison Jr: 9.6%
Malik Nabers: 18.4%
Rome Odunze: 13.8%
Brian Thomas Jr.: 21.1%
Xavier Worthy: 11.1%
Xavier Legette: 24.1% (led team)
Keon Coleman: 21.7% (led team)
Ladd McConkey: 28% (led team)
Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.3%
Adonai Mitchell: 26.3%

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) September 8, 2024

While Harrison’s one-catch performance is frustrating, there is no reason to believe that will last. On the other hand, Nabers, Coleman, and McConkey are each in position to become the top target for their teams.

Dynasty managers are already accustomed to investing heavily and even overvaluing rookie pass catchers and this hot start should quickly push much of this group up rankings and ADP lists.

JAMO Breakout

If you invested a first-round rookie pick in Lions speedster Jameson Williams two years ago, you have certainly been frustrated and disappointed ever since. After Sunday night, that feeling might finally be shifting. Williams was the Lions’ first-round selection in 2021 and seemed to be a perfect fit. His top trait, burning speed, was the only thing missing for the quickly improving Detroit offense.

Despite this seemingly perfect fit, the past two years have been a waste. Williams’ early career has been derailed by injuries and a suspension and has led to quiet performances and diminished dynasty value.

On Sunday night, in the Lions’ overtime victory over the Rams, we were reminded just what Williams can do. The receiver was seemingly always open, sprinting with a hand up on a crossing route. Williams finished with five receptions for 121 yards and a score. His nine targets, along with the 5/121 line were all new career-high marks, but it still felt like his night could’ve been even bigger. That’s what will push dynasty managers to quickly reevaluate Williams’ outlook and value. Unfortunately, I have been a doubter of Williams, so I wasn’t able to benefit from his huge 2024 debut performance, and now the asking price will be much greater than it was two days ago.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

This past weekend, I had the opportunity to hang out with fellow DLFers Dan Meylor and Matt Price as we drafted an FFPC main event team in Las Vegas before enjoying the first football Sunday of the year.

If you’re not familiar with the FFPC opening weekend format, it is very interesting and offers some unique challenges that most leagues don’t. Main Event drafts are held online on the days and weeks leading up to the Week One kickoff on Thursday night. Following the Chiefs/Ravens game, more drafts were held Thursday night and Friday. Then, even more followed up on Friday’s Packers/Eagles contest.

This all means that hundreds of FFPC Main Event teams are formed knowing the results of the first two games of the season. As you can imagine, that knowledge greatly impacts the draft value of players, with disappointments falling and surprises ascending draft boards.

In this specific instance, Ravens tight end Likely was the key beneficiary, moving from a 12th-rounder prior to the Thursday opener to a second or third-round selection later in the weekend. Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, and Xavier Worthy were other notable climbers. Jordan Love tumbled, while Josh Jacobs, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce each lost value after their slow starts. Dan, Matt, and I spent hours discussing and debating how to attack the draft, which was shaken up in a major way by the Thursday and Friday games.

As we wandered through the hallways of the Planet Hollywood hotel and casino, we perused the abandoned draft boards displayed in the hallways. It was a stark reminder of just how quickly player value can change in fantasy leagues. While the FFPC Main Event is a redraft league, it made me realize that we do the exact same thing in dynasty leagues. In fact, this article began with my declaration that Likely is now a dynasty TE1, not the TE19 overall we thought he was last week.

That quick pivot due to injury or a surprise performance, either positive or negative, is something we see in dynasty leagues throughout the year. Once the season begins, dynasty managers often unconsciously shift to a redraft or even “one week at a time” mentality versus the long-term, only upside matters mindset of the off-season.

This is not an indictment of the shift, but rather a reminder to consider players’ value change on a case-by-case basis in an attempt to find a balance between winning each week and building a truly competitive dynasty team.

Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week One