Dynasty Trending Observations: Muddy Running Back Situations
It’s here! It is the start of the NFL season which means every dynasty team has a chance at a championship. But before we start the games, there were a handful of posts this week that could alter your plans for a playoff push.
Chief of Staff
Josh Jacobs: Chiefs tried hard to sign me, but no way was I going there. https://t.co/I9MMaQMSaD
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 30, 2024
Just when Isiah Pacheco dynasty managers thought they had a bona fide RB1 on their team, the Chiefs had to go out and muddy the water. First, they signed veteran back Samaje Perine who head coach Andy Reid said could play in Week One, diminishing any pass-catching potential Pacheco may have shown.
Then comes this mini-bombshell that the Chiefs tried to sign the top running back on the market this off-season, Josh Jacobs. As the post mentions above, it was only Jacobs’ refusal to sign with his former team’s rival that prevented it but the fact that Kansas City was in the market is not a great sign for Pacheco’s dynasty prospects.
It’s quite the about-face for the former seventh-round pick. After surprising the league, and dynasty managers, by becoming the lead back his rookie season, Pacheco ascended to RB2 status his sophomore season with over 1,100 total yards and nine touchdowns. He was on track to be even more productive this season when it seemed as if the Chiefs had full faith in his ability to lead the running back room when they didn’t draft a running back.
They also failed to sign a running back but it wasn’t for lack of trying which changes what we know about the Chiefs’ feelings towards Pacheco.
Dynasty Impact: Like most (all) running backs, Pacheco’s shelf life is short. Yes, he’s the starting running back on the most potent offense in the league but it doesn’t make him irreplaceable. The biggest indicator of any running back and their long-term value is what their team does with them. If the Chiefs were to extend Pacheco before his contract runs out after the 2025 season, you would feel much better about keeping him on your dynasty team. And while there’s still time for them to do that, the fact that they were considering contingency plans puts a damper on his long-term viability in Kansas City. He would be a sell for me while his value is at its peak.
Cin-City
Zack Moss is listed as the RB1 and Chase Brown is the primary kick returner on the Bengals' official Week 1 depth chart.
Panic.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 3, 2024
While it’s not quite the development in Cincinnati we were hoping for, the running back situation was still one of the unanswered questions heading into the season. The departure of Joe Mixon meant a starting job was available in the Bengals backfield. In one corner was 2023 fifth-round pick Chase Brown who saw 44 carries his rookie season in a backup role. In the other corner was free agent acquisition Zack Moss, fresh off a career-best season that saw him total 794 yards on the ground and five touchdowns while filling in for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Not exactly a heavyweight battle but it’s the battle we’ve been given.
But the winner will get a plum job as a starting running back and provide some value for dynasty teams. Mixon, as the starting running back in Cincinnati, was a top-15 running back in five of the last six seasons and only wasn’t in that sixth season due to an injury. And this while Mixon was a very ordinary running back with a career 4.1 yards-per-carry average.
Dynasty Impact: With both backs being very ordinary themselves, there was no clear-cut choice. All year, they’ve flip-flopped as to who is the more valuable dynasty asset.
If this were any other position, Brown would have the advantage as he’s a whole three years younger than Moss. But the prospect of being a starter immediately would tip it to Moss. Moss has shown that he can start and produce while in Indianapolis. Brown is still an unknown with less than 50 professional carries to his name. Go with Moss as a better (and cheaper) option for your dynasty backfield.
Ratter’s Degree
*Whispers* both @MikeGolicJr and I are intrigued by Spencer Rattler…and #TheAgenda 🐍🐍🐍
Discussed the Saints on the pod today…
📺: https://t.co/yvUjEDUPo6 pic.twitter.com/HGfVNcr711
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) August 29, 2024
If Spencer Rattler‘s dynasty value could be charted in college, it would be a roller coaster. He managed to win the starting job at Oklahoma in his (redshirt) freshman season then held off future first overall pick Caleb Williams for the starting job in 2021 and was looking like a Heisman Contender. Then the wheels fell off. He played poorly, lost his job, and transferred to South Carolina for his final two seasons of eligibility. He ended up being drafted in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft after once being tapped as a first-round pick.
So with expectations being lowered, Rattler has taken advantage, throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown in preseason and solidifying his place as the primary backup in New Orleans. It’s a job that may take on more prominence if Derek Carr can’t get his act together. To be clear, Carr is completely passable as an NFL quarterback but it’s clear he’s not leading New Orleans to a Super Bowl anytime soon. So the Saints may see what they have in Rattler sooner rather than later.
Dynasty Impact: Rattler’s journey will have an impact on superlex leagues as those teams should always be on the lookout for a potential starting quarterback. Rattler is still an afterthought if we’re looking at DLF’s Trade Finder for recent trades involving the Saints’ rookie.
