If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

We’re back for another season and can’t wait to get started. This weekly, in-season series has endured quite a few changes over the years, including multiple name changes. I obviously feel all of the information included is valuable to dynasty managers, perhaps the most useful and therefore important in the moment is the weekly matchup numbers.

Looking at how teams have performed against certain positions and then targeting or avoiding those players each week has been a huge game-changer in my weekly lineup decisions. With that in mind, this year, I’ll focus most of my attention on that weekly matchup info, giving you a few must-start or must-sit players each week, based on the trends and numbers. All stats and info used in the article are provided by Fantasy Data.

Note: With Week One of the 2024 NFL season upon us, all data found in this week’s article comes from last season, Weeks One through Seventeen. Understandably, much about individual teams has changed over the off-season, so we’ll treat this week as a starting point.

Looking back at the number of top-24 wide receiver fantasy performances allowed by each team, I noticed some worrisome numbers for top wide receivers. I won’t be benching most of these wideouts on my own fantasy teams and won’t suggest you do that either, but I have toned down my expectations for these four receivers.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL

It has been another strange and tumultuous off-season in Dallas. The Cowboys spent much of the off-season with each of their top three stars being disgruntled with their contracts and expecting a huge payday. After CeeDee Lamb seemingly threatened to hold out if not rewarded with a new deal, the two sides came to an agreement, but quarterback Dak Prescott, along with defensive superstar Micah Parsons, are still waiting. Lamb missing the majority of camp probably doesn’t matter, but it can’t be viewed as a good thing. Lamb and the Cowboys face off with the Browns this week. Cleveland allowed just seven top-24 games to wideouts last season, the second-fewest in the league. This game is also tied for the lowest expected point total for the week, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

DK Metcalf, SEA

The only team to allow fewer top-24 performances to wideouts than Cleveland was the Broncos, who did it just six times. This week, that has me slightly concerned with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I’m really excited about the changes made in Seattle this off-season, but this is another game with a relatively low-scoring total (41.5 points) and Seattle is a six-point favorite. If the game plays out that way, we could see the Seahawks lean on the running game to ice the game away.

Drake London, ATL

The hype train has run wild for all things Falcons this off-season, which started when the team dumped the Arthur Smith/Desmond Ridder duo, replacing them with veteran coach Raheem Morris and rehabbing quarterback Kirk Cousins. That led to Drake London and Kyle Pitts consistently gaining value throughout the past few months. I am fully on board with that, but the season could get off to a slow start as Atlanta meets the Steelers, who allowed only eight top-24 performances last season.

George Pickens, PIT

In that same Steelers/Falcons matchup, the opposing WR1, George Pickens, also has some concerns. The Falcons matched Pittsburgh last year, allowing eight top-24 receiver games. Pickens also now has the Arthur Smith problem as his new offensive coordinator and Russell Wilson throwing the ball. The good news is Pickens will get a massive share of the Steelers’ passing game, but that might not be enough to make him a consistent fantasy producer.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Season-Long QB1s

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders were by far the worst team in the league last year when it came to opposing quarterback production. Washington allowed 13 QB1 games in their first sixteen games. That’s atrocious. That’s also what led to the team making a change to their coaching staff, bringing in former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Washington’s secondary has to be better, but I will still be targeting them early this season until they prove otherwise. In Week One, this means Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield becomes a must-start in superflex leagues. Mayfield enjoyed arguably the best year of his career last season, posting eight QB1 games. Only five quarterbacks in the league had more. Tampa Bay will have a new look on offense as well after former offensive coordinator Dave Canales landed the Panthers head job. Former Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen will now have the same role for the Bucs.

The Jaguars were a distant second here, allowing ten QB1 games. In the opener, it will be a battle of Florida teams when Jacksonville and Miami meet up. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a notoriously fast starter and the Dolphins once again added another speedy playmaker, this time at the running back position in Jaylen Wright.

The Ravens surrendered only a pair of QB1 games last season but did suffer a loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. Mahomes has faced the Ravens defense four times in the regular season, posting at least 25 fantasy points in each contest. Obviously, we are firing up Mahomes and as many Chiefs as possible, regardless of opponent.

Just as you are surely starting Mahomes no matter what, there’s no way you feel confident inserting Saints quarterback Derek Carr in your Week One lineups. That becomes even more true when realizing that the Panthers, New Orleans’ Week One foe, gave up just three QB1 performances last season. Admittedly, that was largely due to how pitiful the Panthers’ run defense was and the fact that they were often falling behind early. Regardless, I hope you have better options than Carr this week, and every week.

Running Backs

Season-Long RB1s

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

The Seahawks allowed a league-high 19 top-24 running back performances this season. Like the previously discussed Commanders, this poor defense ultimately led to a coaching change. Also, like Washington, Seattle had defense in mind when hiring former Ravens coordinator Mike Macdonald. Again, we assume improvement will be made, but I will keep starting Seattle’s running back opponents when possible. This week, that means firing up Javonte Williams, and maybe even Jaleel McLaughlin in deeper leagues. Williams struggled at times last season as he battled back from his 2022 knee injury. Now, he’s presumably fully healthy and fantasy managers should always want a piece of Sean Payton running backs.

James Cook (vs. ARI) and Joe Mixon (vs. IND) are other strong options in this opening week. The Cardinals and Colts each allowed 18 top-24 games to running backs last season, while Cook and Mixon should each see a large majority of their respective backfield’s touches.

As if we needed another bad sign for Kyren Williams. The breakout star of last season has had a rough few months. On top of an injury, which is always a concern for Williams, the Rams added former Michigan back Blake Corum via the draft, and then head coach Sean McVay dropped the bomb last week that Williams would be returning punts. The collective fantasy community panicked. Now, Williams and the Rams face off against the Lions, who allowed just six top-24 games to running backs all of last season. Still the dynasty RB6 per our August ADP data, it is likely difficult to bench Williams in the early part of the season, but expectations do need to be adjusted.

Wide Receivers

Season-Long WR1s

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

Wow, I had forgotten just how bad things got for the Eagles defense. Philadelphia allowed an unreal 25 top-24 fantasy performances to opposing wideouts. No other team even gave up 20, but more on them later. The Eagles face off with fellow NFC powerhouse Green Bay on Friday night. It will likely be an ongoing difficult decision each week this season when it comes to which Packers wide receiver is the right one to start. This week, the answer might be all of them. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs should all be in your fantasy starting lineups in what will be one of the best matchups of the season.

NFC East rival Washington is next on the list, allowing 19 WR1 and WR2 games, making veterans Mike Evans and Chris Godwin excellent options this week, regardless of those defensive changes made by the Commanders.

Tight Ends

Season-Long TE1s

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

In some good news for NFL defenses, no team stood out in a negative way based on opposing tight end fantasy numbers. The Bengals and Jets each allowed ten TE1 games, while the Cardinals, Broncos, Texans, Rams, and Eagles each gave up nine top-12 performances to tight ends.

If you remember last year, Hunter Henry went off for the Patriots and finished as the TE1 in Week One. Facing the Bengals this week, Henry could have another big performance. You were already starting George Kittle, but a matchup against the Jets makes that an even easier decision.

The Titans allowed just two TE1 games all season. As one of the many teams to make a coaching change during the off-season, with a new focus on the offensive side of the ball, this one will be difficult to replicate. That could still be bad news for Cole Kmet. With a studly trio of wide receivers, expectations for Kmet were already trending down. The Bills and Cowboys were next, allowing three TE1 performances, but that’s not enough to sit Trey McBride or David Njoku.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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