Six Off-Season Dynasty Risers

Ryan McDowell

The off-season is quickly coming to a close. The pre-season slate is over and teams have narrowed their rosters to 53 men, as hundreds of players found themselves out of work earlier this week. Dynasty players know as well as anyone just how long the off-season really is, but it can be easy to lose perspective regarding how players are valued during the spring and summer months.

Off-season events including free agency, the NFL Draft, training camp, and preseason games all impact how players are valued in dynasty leagues. The six players below are among the biggest dynasty risers of the off-season, found when comparing our February and August ADP data sets.

Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL

The Cowboys young wideout is the top non-rookie riser, moving up 70 spots in ADP since February. After an almost non-existent rookie season, Tolbert played a much larger role in the Dallas offense last season. While Tolbert played all seventeen games last year, he managed just 22 receptions for 268 yards. That is what led to his afterthought of an ADP in February. Dallas parted ways with veteran Michael Gallup, who later retired after spending some time with the Raiders. Gallup’s departure opened the door for Tolbert to claim a larger role, which he has done as he appears to be the team’s WR3 behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Tolbert is still a value, falling in the long-shot range outside of the top-200.

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Gus Edwards, RB LAC

After missing all of the 2021 season and nearly half of 2022, veteran back Gus Edwards came back to lead the Ravens running backs in rushing. As a 29-year-old back with an injury history, Edwards was not being viewed as a valuable dynasty asset and entered the off-season with an ADP of 199 overall. When the free agency window opened, Edwards was surprisingly among the first backs signed, inking a deal with the Chargers, who were ready to move on from long-time starter Austin Ekeler. Although the Chargers have multiple other options, including JK Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal, that hasn’t slowed Edwards’ value growth. He’s now the RB42 and 133 overall, a jump of 66 spots. Considering how run-heavy the Chargers offense is expected to be under new coach Jim Harbaugh, Edwards is an excellent target for running back depth on contending dynasty squads.

Jonnu Smith, TE MIA

After a pair of disappointing seasons, veteran tight end Jonnu Smith bounced back in 2023, finishing as the TE17 and posting a handful of TE1 performances during the season. Even more impressive, this came as part of a Falcons team with Kyle Pitts also taking tight end work, along with subpar quarterback play. During free agency, Smith bolted from Atlanta, signing with the Dolphins. With Mike McDaniel leading the way, Miami’s offense is always going to be one that fantasy managers are willing to chase. Smith’s ADP was just 279 overall in February, among the final players in the entire pool, but now he’s gained 59 spots, sitting at the 220 spot as the TE31. The lottery ticket is a cheap one but does offer access to that high-powered Miami offense. Smith could be a surprise low-end TE1 this season.

Rico Dowdle & Ezekiel Elliott, RBs DAL

Tolbert was not the only Cowboy to gain significant value this off-season. The running back duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott both make the list as well. Dowdle gained 57 spots and is currently the RB51, while Elliott is up 46 spots as the RB57 and 168 overall. Even though we are just days ahead of the kickoff of the 2024 NFL season, there is still no real clarity as to how this backfield will shake out. Following the departure of 2023 disappointment Tony Pollard, the Cowboys are going cheap at the running back position, a strategy many dynasty managers should be able to understand. Dallas also added veteran Dalvin Cook to the mix, though he’s expected to begin the season on the taxi squad.

Zack Moss, RB CIN

As the backup to Jonathan Taylor last season, the Colts needed Zack Moss to step up and he delivered with the best season of his career. That performance earned him a nice payday from the Bengals, who then traded away veteran Joe Mixon. Moss got a nice payday and is the presumed starter, although second-year back Chase Brown has earned a ton of pre-season buzz. Moss began the offseason with an ADP of 187 overall, but has moved up 55 spots. That makes him the RB41 in our August ADP. The Bengals are another team full of dynasty goodness and even if Moss ends up in a timeshare with the youngster Brown, he can easily live up to this eleventh-round ADP.

Ryan McDowell
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