Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Jordan Addison, Tony Pollard and Chase Brown
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
This is it for the off-season Mailbag! Many thanks to all those who read, rated, left comments and most importantly, submitted questions since I resurfaced this past January to function as DLF’s Mailman once again. Outputs reflect inputs, and I was fortunate enough to receive some stimulating questions to answer.
With the NFL’s regular season beginning, I’ll be pivoting to my weekly Tactical Transactions series, which I took over last year. The writing style and content is much the same, as I ultimately seek to discern the seemingly ever-fluctuating player values in order to best provide advice on moves to make. I hope you’ll give it a read!
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Addison by Subtraction?
Which side do you prefer for a contending team in a 12-team PPR league – Jordan Addison and pick 3.06, or Derrick Henry and Jakobi Meyers?
For a quick sanity check, let’s start off by seeing what the DLF Trade Analyzer thinks on the matter.
All told this seems about as I’d expect. Despite being only 22 years old, Addison already has PPR WR2 season to his name after supplying a fine 70-911-10 line as a rookie in 2023. When early-round draft picks provide rookie-year production, dynasty value typically follows. With that said, there are a couple of minor red flags in addition to Addison’s recent knucklehead behavior.
Firstly, Addison was a significantly better player (5.3 PPR PPG) when Kirk Cousins was slinging him the rock. This isn’t exactly rocket science, but is worth noting because following rookie first-round pick JJ McCarthy’s recent injury, it’s going to be the Sam Darnold show all season. While it’s possible Darnold can keep the offense afloat better than the dreck under center last season, he’s no Cousins.
Next of course was the injury to superstar wideout Justin Jefferson. In Jefferson’s absence, Addison averaged 3.9 PPR PPG more, showing an ability to function as the team’s alpha pass catcher, but the veteran is back healthy and ready to go in 2024. It would be an upset if he didn’t lead the team in targets by a mile.
Playing better with a better quarterback, or when your target competition is shelved? Not exactly breaking any new ground here, but it’s worth noting nonetheless. If we don’t see a massive progression from Addison in year two, these could be some of the reasons why.
On the other side of the ledger sits Henry, who in my estimation is one of a few ball carriers with a legitimate claim to possessing the ability to finish as the overall PPR RB1. It’s true he’s not much of a pass catcher, but he makes up for it by maintaining his health and availability, and couples this with true bell-cow ability. And though his efficiency waned ever so slightly in 2023, he still managed another 1,100-yard season with double-digit scores.
Importantly, the Titans were a bad football team in 2023, concluding the season with a 6-11 record resulting in the firing of head coach Mike Vrabel. But in this six-pack of victories, Henry carried the rock six more times than in losses, resulting in 8.3 additional PPR PPG. This seems important to mention given Henry’s signing with the Baltimore Ravens, the team that finished with the best record in the AFC in 2023.
While it’s true quarterback Lamar Jackson will get his rushes, his true dual-threat ability coupled with Baltimore’s stud pass catchers in Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers will keep defenses honest. Gone will be the brick walls Henry was running into in years past, but what will continue are robust scoring opportunities. To that point, a lesser talent (no disrespect intended) in Gus Edwards accumulated 13 scores on a mere 198 totes in 2023. While it’s never quite as simple as juxtaposing one player’s stats onto another, this could very well be Henry’s future in 2024.
Panning away from the deal’s two big dogs, I take quite a bit of offense on behalf of Mr. Meyers for his paltry valuation, particularly as compared to a mid-third-round draft pick.
These aren’t the best numbers you’ll ever see, but having over half of a player’s contests result in finishes in the WR2 tier or better is plenty useful. There were assuredly some clunkers thrown in there, but the Oakland offense in 2023 was largely rudderless with neither Jimmy Garoppolo nor Aidan O’Connell instilling much fear into opposing defenses. All told it was enough to shave nearly 400 yards and six scores off of star pass catcher Davante Adams’ 2022 totals as well, so clearly the problem was systemic.
Gardner Minshew is hardly spectacular, but I believe he’ll play with more daring than O’Connell. This should result in better numbers for all the pass catchers, including Meyers. While I acknowledge this is highly subjective, given a more positive future outlook coupled with past production and 27 years of age, I’d have Meyers valued much more highly than the pick.
So in my ledger, the sides are pretty close to even. In order to make a decision I think the subjectivity will have to continue. Questions to consider may include:
- Do you believe Addison’s ceiling is that of a WR1, or more of a tier-two/three player?
- Do you believe Henry has multiple (at least two) high-end seasons remaining?
- Would Meyers enter your starting lineup as a flex-type player, or would he be more of a depth piece?
If, in order, the answers are “not WR1,” “yes,” and “starter” then I think you make the deal. Fantasy windows do not always remain open for long, and I’m a big proponent in doing what needs doing to maximize your chances of taking down the championship. But if you’re more bullish on Addison and bearish on the veterans, then perhaps the latter duo doesn’t represent the missing link. None of us can predict the future, but we can collect the facts, generate opinions and ultimately make an informed decision.
Chasing Pollard
In a 12-team, PPR superflex league, which side do you prefer – Chase Brown and a 2025 third-round pick, or Tony Pollard?
Once again in an effort to supply some context, let’s see what the DLF Trade Analyzer has to say on the matter.
To me, this is about as expected. The veteran Pollard has last a ton of value over the past year as shown below, but even given this, he is still viewed as the best asset in the deal. Conversely Brown has been on an intermittent, if not consistent upward trajectory. These resulting fluctuations have more or less resulted in the two meeting in the middle compared to where each one started.
In my response above, I spoke to asking the relevant questions. And given my thoughts on 2024 pick 3.06, you can likely surmise that said questions will not be accounting for the 2025 third-round pick in this deal (though the superflex format at least enhances the likelihood the pick may pan out). What I’d be wondering is the following:
- Is Pollard as cooked as he looked in 2023?
- Even if he isn’t cooked, will he out of necessity be cast into a 1a or 1b role to best keep him fresh?
- Does Brown win the Bengals’ starting job and maintain it moving forward?
To the first question and its corollary, I’m of the belief 2023 answered the question as to why Pollard never ate into Ezekiel Elliot’s market share more than he did. Even dating back to college, the guy simply wasn’t tasked with shouldering the bulk of the load. At 6’0” and 215 pounds he’s certainly big enough, but it was very obvious that his efficiency waned when he finally received heavy utilization.
Continuing, his new backfield mate Tyjae Spears can provide the same type of dual-threat ability as Pollard. Given his 7.4 YPR as a rookie, there’s an argument to be made he should keep that role at the minimum.
Continuing, a failure to secure robust volume behind the aforementioned Henry is hardly a black mark on Spears’ CV. But when he did receive robust volume in his final collegiate season, Spears made good on it.
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference.
Rational minds may differ, and if nothing else the Titans are financially committed to Pollard. But money is not always the ultimate differentiator – likely the player who sees the most touches will be the one who plays better. And while it’s a small sample size, most recently we saw Spears vastly outplay Pollard in 2023.
As for Brown, the current rumor mill asserts he has a legitimate shot at RB1 duties in Cincy. Last season Joe Mixon was able to turn that opportunity into a finish as the PPR RB6, with Brown largely picking at table scraps to the tune of 58 total touches. While I don’t know that either Brown or his backfield mate Zack Moss will secure quite that same market share, the fact is there is a vacuum that needs filling.
While Brown’s 4.1 YPC as a rookie were fairly pedestrian, similar to Spears he excelled through the air (on an admittedly small sample size). This was something of a revelation as while in college Brown only managed a miniscule 58 receptions across five seasons, though notably he finished his final season with 27 catches for 240 yards (8.9 YPR). I don’t know if this will ultimately stand as an outlier, or if his aerial usage will continue – but it’s something to file away nonetheless.
While the Bengals brought in Zack Moss as competition, it was for a mere $3 million guaranteed across two seasons. As noted with Pollard above, money isn’t everything.
As shown above, Moss isn’t a pushover. He excelled during teammate Jonathan Taylor’s absence, rushing the ball a whopping 89 times over his first four starts. Taylor’s return clearly changed the paradigm, but even when Moss received starter-level volume towards the end of the season and during Taylor’s second absence, he was highly inefficient with it.
This is all to say that being an above-average player does not make Moss an insurmountable roadblock. If Brown performs as capable I believe his ceiling is higher, and he should also have more years left in the league than does Pollard. As noted above the draft pick is largely window dressing, so if you could find a counter with another player on both sides, or perhaps where you give a third and receive a future second (still not ideal but better) then I’d like it a bit more. But even in absence of that, I’d be fine here chasing Chase.
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