Dynasty Trending Observations: Wide Receiver Holdouts and Jahan Dotson on the Move
Rookie drafts are done, cuts are being made, both in real life and on dynasty teams, and the only thing left to do is play the games. But before we do, there are a few loose ends to tie up before the season. Below are a few of those developments and what you should do with them when it comes to your dynasty teams.
Holding Pattern
It's a deadline-driven business. And if Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, and/or Ja'Marr Chase will have new deals by Week 1, the clock is ticking toward midnight. https://t.co/ja8NduL0b7 pic.twitter.com/U9NsX5yl41
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 21, 2024
Never has the NFL been so flush with talented and elite wide receivers. In just the past five seasons, there have been players entering the league who would be the best (non-Jerry Rice edition) at the position in any decade of the league’s existence. They’ve made Pro Bowls, Super Bowls, All-Pro teams and more.
Of course, that talent commands respect and, just as important, money. Already we’ve seen huge extensions for world-class receivers like Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But several receivers are still waiting to cash in including Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk. All three have taken various stances in the hopes of getting a new deal. In Aiyuk’s case, it’s a saga that has lasted all off-season. But just because Chase and Lamb haven’t been in the news as much, doesn’t mean their situations are any better. And as the post above explains, the clock is ticking to get deals done with these receivers but what do their hold-outs and future plans mean for their dynasty value?
Dynasty Impact: While the league has seen its share of holdouts before, there’s been nothing like this off-season with the number of truly elite players coming up for an extension. The trio of Chase, Lamb, and Aiyuk make up a quarter of the WR1s in dynasty at the moment and all three could potentially miss time in the short-term or play for another team altogether in the long term.
As mentioned above, there are several examples of star receivers specifically holding out and what happened to them after. There’s Terrell Owens who held out early in his Eagles tenure that ended in an ugly divorce but also saw Owens turn in several 1,000-yard seasons with the rival Cowboys. There was Michael Thomas who went on to turn in his best season as a pro immediately following the contract he signed as a result of holding out. Injuries derailed the rest of their career, not any contractual obligations.
The point is these holdouts shouldn’t affect your valuation of any of these receivers. They’re all in their prime and will produce no matter what team pays for their services. Don’t let the short-term outlook affect your long-term plans.
Business Gardner
#RAIDERS QB GARDNER MINSHEW TRAINING TO ‘HIGHER’ BY CREED, HE MAY JUST WIN THE MVP THIS YEAR.
AN AMERICAN HERO
🐐🐐🐐
(Via @DraftKings)
pic.twitter.com/msh69YfDCD— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) August 21, 2024
Now that the Raiders have named a starting quarterback, the memes have been unleashed, including the one above. Granted, Gardner Minshew may not lead the Raiders to a Super Bowl but he can at least get them hyped up. For Minshew, it’s a shot at redemption after bouncing around the league. He’s always been just good enough to fill in but not good enough for a team to invest a lot of time or money. He’s now on his fourth team in six seasons after accumulating a 59/24 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 49 games. In his most recent stop in Indianapolis, he filled in for rookie Anthony Richardson for most of last season, throwing for over 3,300 yards and 15 touchdowns and almost led the team to the playoffs. Minshew now starts the season as a starter for the first time since 2020 when he was in Jacksonville. So how good can Minshew be for dynasty teams now that he’s starting again?
Dynasty Impact: While some dynasty players may have preferred Aidan O’Connell – the younger of the two – be named the starter over Minshew, the latter is still a decent dynasty play (in Superflex leagues). Consider the supporting cast around him including an older but still good Davante Adams, first-round tight end Brock Bowers, and more. He also plays behind an ascending offensive line led by one of the best tackles in football Kolton Miller.
Minshew is also cheap. According to our DLF Trade Analyzer, Minshew would cost as little as a third-round rookie pick in Superflex leagues.
If your dynasty superflex team is in need of a second quarterback, Minshew is a prime target for this year and, potentially, beyond.
Last Jahan Hero
Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia Eagle, has a nice ring to it@JahanDotson | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/Xj1ZE9b7kL
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) August 23, 2024
It may be hard to believe now but Jahan Dotson was being talked about in the same circles as Drake London, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson. Dotson was taken just a few picks after those three and was expected to be just as productive. As we know, it wasn’t meant to be. While Wilson and Olave have both turned in consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and London appears poised to break out now that he has a quarterback, Dotson has been stuck in neutral in Washington. He’s barely eclipsed 1,000 career yards in his first two seasons, totaling 84 receptions for 1,041 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s failed to finish in the top 40 in fantasy scoring and never eclipsed Curtis Samuel in the Washington pecking order. New head coach Dan Quinn foreshadowed Dotson’s exit when he said the team was still looking for a WR2 and the Commanders made it official just days later.
For Dotson, he’ll get a fresh start in Philadelphia albeit in a reduced role. The Eagles passing attack is pretty squared away with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith at the top followed by tight end Dallas Goeddert. The Eagles passed to their running backs a lot as well with both D’Andre Swift (49) and Kenneth Gainwell (37) seeing more targets than the next wide receiver Quez Watkins (21).
But the Eagles did swap a third-round pick for a fifth in order to acquire Dotson so they might have a bigger plan for their third receiver than they previously had.
Dynasty Impact: We’re at the point of Dotson’s dynasty career, and any change in scenery would have been viewed as positive. His ADP steadily declined over the course of a year to a career-low as the 2024 season approached.
Heading to a better team with a better quarterback will help Dotson more in real life than in dynasty leagues. For example, he’d be hard-pressed to get to 500 receiving yards again with all of the mouths in front of him to feed in Philadelphia. Additionally, Dotson goes from a team that passed it the second-most last year (37.4 pass attempts per game) to the 21st-most (33.2). He is still a hold in deeper dynasty leagues but nothing more.
