Dynasty GAAP Memo: Preseason Bear or Bull
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate preseason box scores and how dynasty managers might become ‘bear’ or ‘bull’ on a player as a result.
Background
Over the summer, we are starved for NFL football and the preseason is the appetizer that leaves all football fans salivating for the main course. With that desire, there is the potential for us all to overreact to preseason statistics, playing time, and one play (remember Ameer Abdullah’s preseason run?). Due to Puka Nacua’s 2023 breakout, every league mate and fantasy analyst has a claim “that Player A is the next Puka”. When in all likelihood, most of these players will not become fantasy-viable (let alone set all-time rookie receiving records).
In the investing world, financial analysts try to use all market conditions at their disposal. This is similar to dynasty managers with the preseason as this is the first time we see rookies in NFL uniforms. As an investor (or dynasty manager), the direction of the market is a major force that has a huge impact on your portfolio. The terms “bull” and “bear” are frequently used to refer to market conditions.
- A bull market is a market that is on the rise and where the conditions of the economy are generally favorable.
- A bear market is one that is in decline. This results in a downward trend that investors believe will continue; this belief, in turn, perpetuates the downward spiral.
To summarize, bull-ish = good; bear-ish = bad.
This memo will explore historical preseason performances that might lead dynasty managers to be more bull-ish on a player and how that translates to the regular season (and fantasy success).
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups.
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web.
Analysis
To evaluate historical preseasons, I will go through the last three years (2021 through 2023) of reception and rushing leaders across the NFL preseason. I considered passing yards to evaluate QB. However, we rarely see QBs become fantasy viable without NFL draft capital and the intent of this memo is to explore if finding “diamonds in the rough” is frequent based on the preseason. For each preseason, I will evaluate the top ten performers in both rushing and receptions. I will then highlight any players who became fantasy-viable at some point thus far in their careers or that stood out to me during my review.
Disclaimer: I wanted to use receiving yards. However, I was shocked how hard it was to find historical preseason statistics in an exportable database. Receptions seemed good enough to depict the intent of the memo.
2021 Preseason
Reception Leaders
Amari Rodgers and Josh Oliver are the only names that stand out here as they were both drafted in the third round of the NFL draft. However, Rodgers and Oliver have 249 and 443 career receiving yards to date, respectively, in three seasons.
Rushing Leaders:
Rhamondre Stevenson and Chuba Hubbard obviously stand out here as both are listed as the starters on their current respective depth charts.
2022 Preseason
Reception Leaders:
Isaiah Hodgins had a small little stint with the Giants where his ADP climbed below 200. Since then, he has likely been cut off all dynasty rosters. Greg Dortch is one of my favorite “throw-in players” in deals and has gotten some hype on Twitter/X recently. Every time he has gotten a full-time role, he has presented flex value. Doesn’t hurt that Kyler Murray said: “I feel like Dortch is unguardable,” last month as well.
Rushing Leaders:
DeeJay Dallas and Raheem Blackshear are the two names that stood out here. Dallas had pass-catching upside that never materialized during the regular season. Then Blackshear had a few spot starts for the Panthers and tried his best Mike Davis impression. Neither materialized for dynasty managers and are likely on all waiver wires at this point.
2023 Preseason
Reception Leaders:
My Rashee Rice love is well-documented if you have been following me for a while. I still think he is undervalued in dynasty and his suspension will occur in 2025 after he already cements himself as an elite chain-mover for the Chiefs.
Rushing Leaders:
More blah in this top ten. I’ll highlight Joshua Kelly. He went in the fourth rounds of the 2020 draft and never materialized for the Chargers. He is currently sixth on the New York Giants’ unofficial depth chart. Malik Willis also was interesting as the only QB on the list in 2022 and 2023. However, he continues to be a project in the NFL.
Conclusion
Above, we examined over 60 players who performed well during the preseason. Of those 60 players, there are only three players who became fantasy-viable (Rashee Rice, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Chuba Hubbard). Then a handful of other players who were worth mentioning and potentially rostering depending upon roster size in your league. That’s only a 5% hit rate and should likely indicate that we should be bear-ish on preseason box scores.
In my opinion, the most fruitful statistics are absent in box scores. See below:
- Lack of Playing Time: Similar to veterans, a team does not want to risk injury to players that they see as consistent regular-season contributors. If a player plays long enough to accumulate statistics, that might be an indicator of coaches wanting to see more from that player (and not that his role is cemented).
- When Players Play: The starters often get a drive or two in the preseason. If the player is on the field during the first quarter with and against other starters, that is a more bull-ish situation than a player who played into the second half against and with backups.
- Confirmation of “Camp Hype”: If player A was getting a drum beat in camp, this is a good way of confirming what you are hearing based upon their performance and who they are playing with.
Overall, this is a good reminder to be bear-ish on box score scouting during the preseason. You likely need the context of the data. Although I do love the irony of Jordan Whittington below being drafted by the same team as Nacua a year later. He is likely more Greg Dortch than Nacua, but it’s still fun.
2024 Preseason so far
Reception Leaders:
Rushing Leaders:
“if I’m choosing, I’m not playing.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Running Back Maturity Approach and Second-Year RBs - February 20, 2025
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Buying The WR Dip Or Falling Knife? - November 14, 2024
