Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC East
After debuting this miniseries last year, I’m excited to have the opportunity to author the 2024 iteration!
With the NFL draft now months behind us, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple of months (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.
In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!
Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:
- Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF top-250 rankings;
- The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
- Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
- Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.
With that said, let’s continue with the NFC East! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.
Dallas Cowboys
Buy: Jake Ferguson, TE (ADP = 106.8 Rank = 129.0)
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Receiver CeeDee Lamb is the clear lion in this offense (see what I did there?), but if you squint and look a little more than halfway down, you’ll see it was Ferguson who had the team’s second most targets. And with those looks he held a very singular purpose – run a short pattern (aDOT of 5.1 yards) and make some things happen after the catch (6.0 YAC per reception). He also managed to convert five of these receptions into scores en route to finishing the season as the PPR TE9.
With the Cowboys slated to essentially run it back in 2024, I don’t foresee anything changes. And with another year in the league and system (Ferguson is still only 25 years old), it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see some progression here. With a firm place in his team’s offense, there’s room to go for the TE13 by DLF’s ADP.
Sell: Brandin Cooks, WR (ADP = 141.7, Rank = 168.2)
It’s somewhat weird writing this for what seems like the first time in ages, but for once I don’t consider Cooks to be a “buy.” After going over 1,000 yards for a whopping four different teams in his career, the veteran couldn’t get “one for the thumb” in 2023.
If you started Cooks in week 6 and 10 it was likely due more to blind faith or having no better options, as he spent the majority of the season as a weekly PPR WR4 or worse. While it could perhaps be noted he ended the season stronger than he started it, that was a low bar to clear. Now on the wrong side of 30, the arrow is pointing down – Cooks might not be worth a ton but if you’re able to cash out for the equivalent of a mid-round startup pick, I think it’s a sensible move.
Hold: Rico Dowdle, RB (ADP = 167.8, Rank = 193.2)
When I said the Cowboys were effectively running it back, I mean they’re really running it back – like to 2022 and before. While Tony Pollard was left to walk, Jerry Jones did the Jerry Jones thing where he reunited with one of his favorite toys, Ezekiel Elliott. Yet despite the once and likely not future king’s return, it’s been Dowdle who has been getting press as the team’s likely RB1.
Perhaps the August ADP will display some movement, but Dowdle has basically held court over the past few months following the NFL Draft. Even if the Dallas backfield winds up being something of a 1a/1b scenario, he should still be able to outplay his current valuation. I’m not going out of my way to buy him because I won’t discount Mike McCarthy stubbornly sending Zeke out there for three yards and a cloud of dust, but I’d be happy to have him in a key bench spot with room to grow.
New York Giants
Buy: Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (ADP = 162.7, Rank = 157.5)
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com
Following rookie first-round pick Malik Nabers, this is one of the squishiest depth charts in the league. And while I’m still somewhat bullish on Jalin Hyatt (more on him below), I’m a bit surprised it’s not Robinson filling in the team’s #2 slot. After all despite missing two games and parts of another, he was only one target off the team lead in 2023, putting forth five games of double-digit points.
Is that great? Of course not, but we’re grading on a curve here – the 2023 Giants rolled out “Tommy DeVito” under center for 178 attempts, and never gained any continuity with both Daniel Jones and backup Tyrod Taylor missing time. On any given week, the team’s signal callers were providing a modest (heavy quotation fingers needed) 44.9 PPR points to its pass catcher. Even prime Calvin Johnson would have problems getting numbers.
If Jones returns to his 2022 form, then perhaps the clouds will lift. And if Robinson can indeed function as the team’s WR2, there will be meat on the bone. For the cost of the WR75, it’s a worthy venture.
Sell: Eric Gray, RB (ADP = 235.3, Rank = 248.8)
There’s truthfully not much to say here. Gray only managed to sequester 17 carries as a rookie, and then the G-Men went out and drafted Tyrone Tracy in the 2024 NFL Draft’s fifth round. It’s not stellar capital, but Gray himself was a fellow fifth-round pick just the year prior.
Sometimes you have to buck convention and sell for pennies on the dollar. But a few pennies are better than one or no pennies. You’re likely not selling him as a standalone, but if you can include him as part of a larger deal as potential window dressing (perhaps to the Devin Singletary owner), it could be a smart move.
Hold: Jalin Hyatt, WR (ADP = 211.5, Rank = 171.7)
Hyatt had an objectively poor rookie season, finishing as the PPR WR100. I’ve touched on some of the potential reasons why above, but the simple fact is he just didn’t produce. This saw his ADP drop around 60 spots since last year’s draft, and around the same since the inception of the 2023 regular season.
That said, Hyatt did his thing, averaging 16.2 YPR and nearly 10 YPT. He flashed against the Patriots with five receptions for 109 yards, and all told nearly half his yardage came from 40+ yard receptions. If you’re not buying the dip, you should hold – as noted above Jones is returning healthy and should provide an upgrade under center. While Hyatt still might be at his pinnacle in a best-ball format, an increase in splash plays has the potential to win weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy: Johnny Wilson, WR (ADP = 239.8, Rank = N/A)
As shown above, Wilson is a large, athletic man. He didn’t get the draft capital as a sixth-round pick, never really broke out and never dominated in college. But the Eagles have been able to maximize a similar tower-esque human being in AJ Brown. I’m not saying Wilson is Brown, because he’s not – but the rumors out of Philly assert that Wilson is already stating his case for the team’s WR3 spot. On an offense where the next man up could provide fantasy viability, this makes Wilson a buy for the price of free.
Sell: DeVonta Smith, RB (ADP = 23.3, Rank = 19.5)
I have nothing inherently against Smith, who is clearly a very good football player. But for a second-round pick in a startup draft, I’d like a bit more consistency. The highs are nice, with four WR1 weeks, and eight weeks in the WR2 or better. But the lows are staggeringly low, with six contests ending with a WR4 finish or worse. I’m not running to my league’s trade bait page, but consideration should be given to other players in this range.
Hold: Saquon Barkley, RB (ADP = 24.3, Rank = 28.8)
Apparently the Eagles represent something of the Staples “easy button” out of all the teams in this division, as I don’t find myself having to grind to make a reasonable case for any of these three players. This extends to Barkley, who in going from the outhouse (Giants) to the penthouse (Eagles) now represents one of the few ball carriers with overall PPR RB1 upside. To that point, even with quarterback Jalen Hurts crushing it with 15 rushing scores, the duet of D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell still scored 310 PPR points, which would have finished last season as the PPR RB2.
I’m not saying Barkley is going to do the work of these two men, but the facts are clear. First and foremost, from a talent level he’s simply on a different plane of existence. Secondly, Swift and Gainwell combined for 382 touches – while Barkley has something of a checkered injury history, he has two seasons of over 350 touches. So even if only takes a strong majority of the available looks, he has the potential to do more and make good. Though he’s now 27 years old, age matters less at a position where we’re typically seeking immediate viability – given this I’m holding Barkley where I have him.
Washington Commanders
Buy: Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP = 77.7, Rank = 77.0)
I like to include fancy charts and graphics to state my point in this space. But when it comes to McLaurin, I feel a picture of Rodney Dangerfield would suffice. Why can’t he get any respect?
Though the ceiling hasn’t yet materialized, the floor has been legit as a top-30 pass catcher in each of his five seasons in the league. The best laid plans of mice and men often fizzle, but #2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft Jayden Daniel should immediately slot in as the best signal caller with whom McLaurin has been paired. If Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme involves more than wind springs for the veteran, and Daniels indeed plays to his draft capital – PPR WR1 viability is on the table. Given that he’s going as the WR42 per the ADP, this potential makes him a solid buy.
Sell: Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP = 123.3, Rank = 129.0)
To be clear, I very much enjoy Ekeler. Instead of dismissing the concept of fantasy football, the former Charger and now Commander embraces it, not only partaking himself but offering weekly insights on his Ekeler’s Edge video podcast. The guy is great, no further questions asked.
But when it comes to what he did on the field, 2023 wasn’t it. Though it’s true LA was essentially rudderless under the stewardship of Brandon Staley, Ekeler’s YPC average fell a full yard from 2022, and he also received his fewest targets since 2020. On the aggregate he still got his (near) 1,100 yards, but to reference the famous phrase it was like an unseasoned dish – it may have filled you up, but it didn’t taste good.
Perhaps commensurately, Ekeler currently stands as the player who has lost the most value over the past year per DLF’s Change in Player Value App. Still, despite his now 29 years of age he is going as an early 11th-round pick in startup drafts. I’m rooting for Ekeler to find the fountain of youth, and perhaps a step back to a “1b” role similar to when he was with Melvin Gordon could help his cause. Still, I just have a hard time seeing him as more than a depth piece at this stage in the game. As such it might be prudent to get out.
Hold: Brian Robinson, RB (ADP = 108.3, Rank = 106.7)
On the backswing of the pendulum sits Robinson, who in 2023 led the team’s running backs with over 1,000 total yards and nine touchdowns on his way to a finish as the PPR21. While perhaps not great, it was definitely bankable production.
With the Commanders getting blown out in each of the season’s final five games, I think it’s fair to posit Robinson didn’t get the run of which he’s capable. And while the 2024 iteration may not be an immediate contender, it’s hard to imagine them being worse. If Washington can even just keep the games competitive, Robinson has the potential to be amongst the league leaders in touches – barely going a round ahead of Ekeler, this makes the third-year player a fantastic hold, if not an outright buy.
The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.
| Team | Buy | Sell | Hold | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | |
| Dallas Cowboys | Jake Ferguson | 106.8 | 129.0 | Brandin Cooks | 141.7 | 168.2 | Rico Dowdle | 167.8 | 193.2 |
| New York Giants | Wan'Dale Robinson | 162.7 | 157.5 | Eric Gray | 235.3 | 248.8 | Jalin Hyatt | 211.5 | 171.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Johnny Wilson | 239.8 | N/A | DeVonta Smith | 23.3 | 19.5 | Saquon Barkley | 24.3 | 28.8 |
| Washington Commanders | Terry McLaurin | 77.7 | 77.0 | Austin Ekeler | 123.3 | 129 | Brian Robinson | 108.3 | 106.7 |
| NFC East | Team | Buy | Sell | Hold | ||||||
| Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | Jake Ferguson | 106.8 | 129.0 | Brandin Cooks | 141.7 | 168.2 | Rico Dowdle | 167.8 | 193.2 | |
| New York Giants | Wan’Dale Robinson | 162.7 | 157.5 | Eric Gray | 235.3 | 248.8 | Jalin Hyatt | 211.5 | 171.7 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Johnny Wilson | 239.8 | N/A | DeVonta Smith | 23.3 | 19.5 | Saquon Barkley | 24.3 | 28.8 | |
| Washington Commanders | Terry McLaurin | 77.7 | 77.0 | Austin Ekeler | 123.3 | 129 | Brian Robinson | 108.3 | 106.7 | |
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