Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown: Washington Commanders
Welcome back to the Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown series. In this article, I examine a handful of NFL backfields that have sparked conversation in the fantasy football world, going through each player and their outlooks for this season.
This week, we will examine the Washington Commanders’ backfield, highlighted by Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. After letting Antonio Gibson go in free agency, the Commanders agreed to sign former Chargers running back Ekeler to a two-year contract worth over 11 million dollars. How will the touches be split between Ekeler and Robinson, and who is the player you want in fantasy football?
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler has had a stellar career in fantasy football due to his elite electricity and volume in the passing game. However, last year, things were different. He struggled with injuries, and his play on the field seemed less efficient than in years past. Many believe he is now washed, but is that the case?
In DLF ADP, Ekeler is going outside the top 110 picks in a dynasty superflex draft as the 30th running back off the board. You can easily trade for him in most dynasty leagues with a second-round pick. His value is dramatically low compared to what it was in years past, and it is acceptable for a win-now roster to add him to your team.
We have all seen the one run he pulled off last season against the Packers. He did get good yardage, but he looked extremely slow. This play has been played so much that many people believe that was Ekeler for the entire season.
While he was ineffective in the run game compared to years past, he still positively impacted the Chargers, especially as a receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the second-highest yards after catch per reception in his career at 10.5, and he finished in the top ten among running backs in yards created per touch and yards per route run. When he was healthy on the field, he made some excellent plays. The biggest problem for Ekeler was injuries that slowed him down and a lack of touchdowns. He only scored six this past year when he scored 18 in 2022 and 20 in 2021. If Ekeler hit those touchdown marks this past season, he would have been able to finish as a top-five running back yet again.
Ekeler did play solid football last year when fully healthy, but this new Commanders offense brings reasons to be concerned. Firstly, a running back who is nearly 30 years of age off a bit of a down year on a new team could not have a worse history for fantasy purposes. It commonly does not end well, so history is already against him. Secondly, Ekeler is playing with quarterback Jayden Daniels, who not only could steal significant rushing attempts and red zone carries but he also refused to dump off the football to his running backs in college, giving them around an eight percent target share in his final college season. Lastly, Kliff Kingsbury gave his running back room a below-average target count in all his years coaching the Arizona Cardinals. So, while there is potential for Ekeler to carve out a role, I would not expect upside with the target count, which would cap Ekeler’s potential fantasy output and also give him a shallow floor weekly due to an inconsistent target share.
Brian Robinson
Robinson had one of the wildest starts to his NFL journey. He started his rookie season with a fantastic preseason, and the lead role could have been his. Then, out of nowhere, he was a victim of a violent crime and got shot. He had to miss several weeks before being able to play his first NFL regular season game in week five. He played out that season and was still recovering to total health as he played. His second year showed improvement not just as a rusher but as a receiver. His yards after catch and yards per route run were among the top of football at the running back position in 2023. With Ekeler now in the backfield, what will this season bring?
His DLF ADP currently sits at RB33, just a handful of spots behind Austin Ekeler. He is also worth around a second-round pick in dynasty trades. At this ADP, while I see the argument and the path for Robinson, I also think he is not a bad selection. Due to his age and a wider range of outcomes, I would rather have him than Ekeler.
Robinson has a broader range of outcomes because he is simply the more versatile player, and Ekeler has significantly more volatility due to his older age. Per PFF, among running backs with 20 or more targets last year, Ekeler was second in the NFL in yards after contact per reception, but Robinson was first. Robinson was also first in yards per route run among this sample of running backs. He caught 36 of 43 passes thrown his way last year, even with former Commander Antonio Gibson seeing nearly 60 targets. If Ekeler is still a solid pass-catching running back, he will take away Robinson’s targets and leave Robinson with a minimal role, but if Ekeler ends up hitting the cliff that many running backs hit in his age range, Robinson could be in for a massive workload as both a runner and a pass catcher. An outcome where Ekeler gets put into a similar workload seems much less likely.
Conclusion
This backfield will have some value this year in fantasy football, but you have to plant your flag on which one you want. Brian Robinson would be my pick. Not only is he younger and potentially has more juice than Ekeler, but he also has the potential to take a three-down role, which is less likely for the former Charger. He also goes a little later in drafts, making him even more desirable.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article. Best of luck in all your fantasy football adventures this year!
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown: Cincinnati Bengals - August 24, 2024
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown: Washington Commanders - August 15, 2024
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdowns: Los Angeles Chargers - August 7, 2024
