Dynasty Fantasy Football: Aging Veterans to Sell
In case you didn’t know, DLF has a YouTube channel! We post FREE video content over there at least five days a week covering dynasty trades, strategy, and player analysis. For my videos specifically, I write out a script to read when I record, but I realized that script could be turned into written content for anyone who doesn’t want to watch YouTube to read too! So, without further ado, here is an “article-ized” version of one of my recent videos covering tips to become an expert dynasty player!
It might sound counterproductive as a contender to trade away aging but productive players, but sometimes there are players whose values might just be higher than the production they’re going to offer you… or not offer you. So I have five aging veterans I’m looking to sell before the start of the year.
Austin Ekeler, RB WAS
Ekeler is now acting as the RB2 or RB1b for the Washington Commanders, and I’ll be honest – I just don’t want Austin Ekeler on any of my dynasty teams, period. He wasn’t all that good last year and I don’t expect him to be any better this year on a new team.
In 14 games played last year, Ekeler averaged 85 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game on 16 touches per game. That’s a 17-game pace of 1,300 yards and seven touchdowns on 280 touches, which is horribly inefficient, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 8.5 yards per reception. Because of that, he only averaged 13 fantasy points per game as the RB21 overall. What really saved his fantasy performances were touchdowns and massive target numbers.
In fact, of 14 games played, he either scored over 20 PPR points, thanks to either scoring twice or seeing 7+ targets in those games, or scored under 12 PPR points. There was no in-between for Ekeler – and that’s while playing 65-75% of snaps in a fairly mediocre offense.
So now in Washington, he is not the best running back on the team, Brian Robinson is, so I expect Ekeler to take a backseat in snaps and touches and I don’t expect him to average 5.5 targets per game like he did last year. He will play fewer snaps and Jayden Daniels is a mobile QB who can scramble rather than check down, not to mention that Brian Robinson is also a very capable receiver, so Ekeler might just be playing the Antonio Gibson role as a receiving-only, handcuff running back, who if you’re lucky might get you 8-10 fantasy points some weeks.
That’s just not a player I want on my team, especially as a contender because I might get tricked into playing him more than I should and he could wind up losing me weeks because of it.
From DLF ADP, he is the RB37 overall, around other veterans like James Conner and Raheem Mostert, both of whom I’d much rather have as a contender, or other dart throws like Zack Moss, Jerome Ford, Kendre Miller, Gus Edwards, Devin Singletary. Again I’m taking all of them over Ekeler.
I would instantly accept a random future second in any draft class, or try to use him to upgrade another position into a higher tier like at tight end or wide receiver. I just do not want Austin Ekeler on any contending rosters and do not want to take him into the season where he could plummet in value more than he already has.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
I will also include Nick Chubb here, more just because the injury seemed so devastating last year and we know that even if running backs return a year after a huge knee injury, they’re never really the same, especially when that running back is currently 28, turning 29 in a few months. And Chubb will also be a free agent at the end of the year, so who knows what his situation will be.
We’ve seen how quickly things can fall apart for running backs as they age out or add injuries to that age – look at Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, just numerous examples of Father Time winning.
So again, like Ekeler, if you can flip Chubb for James Conner, Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson, Tony Pollard, anyone like that to help you compete I think is way better for 2024 and beyond that holding onto Chubb and hoping he returns to form.
Keenan Allen, WR CHI
The next player on this list is Allen, and I hate that this is where I’m at because he has been one of my favorite players in the league for a very long time, but the move to Chicago just took a lot of wind out his sails from a fantasy perspective.
This has nothing to do with Allen’s talent or my expectation that he’s going to fall off a cliff, that’s not even a concern for me based on what I saw from him last year – he’s still Keenan Allen. But Chicago just has so much going on right now. DJ Moore had a massive breakout season and then signed a long-term deal, they drafted Rome Odunze, they signed D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett, and even though Caleb Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects of all time, he’s still a rookie and maybe he doesn’t pan out or doesn’t have a strong rookie season.
And then there’s Allen himself, a 32-year-old wide receiver on the final year of his contract, so who knows where he’ll even be playing next year if he stays in Chicago or signs with another contender to chase a Super Bowl. There’s just a lot going on right now for me to really believe strongly that he will be a major contributor to my contending rosters like he has in years past.
I think at best, you’re hoping for DeAndre Hopkins or Calvin Ridley production on their new teams, which is a 1,000-yard receiver, 7-8 touchdowns, but 13ish PPG as mid-WR3s last year… that’s not all that inspiring or different than a lot of other receivers right now – and again, I think that’s what you’re getting AT BEST from Allen.
Let’s hope he isn’t the new Tyler Lockett getting pushed out by the flashier and younger rookie, averaging 12 FPPG as the WR39 last year. Or maybe a major role shift, a la Brandin Cooks on a new team, averaging under 11 PPR points as the WR45. Or, god forbid, he’s the new Michael Thomas and gets completely phased out of his offense for younger, better players and he struggles with injuries as he has in the past, he still scores 8-10 PPG. What is that doing for you?
Allen is around the WR50 in DLF ADP and on KeepTradeCut, which I think is also a testament to how many good receivers are in the league who can all score relatively similarly. But a vast majority of them are three, four, five years younger than Allen and possibly in better situations for higher-end production too.
I don’t think it would take much to turn Allen into Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper, or maybe even Cooper Kupp. Or just re-roll the dice entirely on someone like Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, or Ja’Lynn Polk where maybe they give you similar production, but due to their age, their values can rise and rise dramatically. Allen is only going down from here.
Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
Alright, now the next player is the biggest name on this list and I’m probably going to ruffle some feathers with this one, but hear me out on the process here: Saquon Barkley has now entered a very interesting and quite frankly dangerous range of dynasty value for a 27-year-old running back.
I did a study back in February around running back value cliffs and when the best time to sell running backs is in dynasty, and the TLDR on that study is that running backs aged 27 or older who are valued as dynasty RB1s have a 25% chance of producing as an RB1 that season AND *maintaining* value in the next off-season.
And this is exactly where Barkley is right now. He is 27 but valued as the dynasty RB6 from DLF ADP and RB8 on KeepTradeCut, which means there is a 50% shot on him even finishing as an RB1 this year and another 50% shot that he *MAINTAINS* this value next year because he’ll never gain value from here on out because of his age. You’re just hoping he maintains it by producing.
And I just want to point out that Barkley has not finished higher than RB5 in a season since his rookie year in 2018 when he was actually the RB1 overall. In 2019, he was the RB7, 2020 he tore his ACL, 2021 was a bad year coming back from an ACL injury, in 2022 he was the RB5, and then last year was the RB9 in PPG and the RB13 overall because of three missed games. So, over the past five seasons, he has out-produced his RB6-8 ADP once. Just once.
We are entirely banking on the fact that he will be so much better in Philadelphia just because it’s a better offense. But is that really going to be the case? I mean we just watched D’Andre Swift put up almost 1,300 yards and 6 touchdowns on 270 touches. That was good for RB20 in fantasy last year. And sure, the dude had notoriously bad luck with getting tackled on the 1-yard line, but even if we give him five more touchdowns to put him at 11 total, that still only gets him to RB13 overall – which is right where Barkley was last year! And not to mention that 11 touchdowns would be the second-most Barkley has had in a season.
Jalen Hurts is still there and still going to take away touches on the goal-line. The tush push is still legal. The Eagles drafted Will Shipley, who is already getting rave reviews out of training camp, especially for his receiving ability, and the Eagles still have Kenneth Gainwell, again most known for his work as a receiver out of the backfield. So we’re really hoping that Barkley can be very efficient and score touchdowns, which he probably will be and I’m sure he’ll be a top-ten fantasy running back this year – but that still doesn’t really live up to his RB6-8 dynasty ADP when you factor in risk due to his age.
If we were to get notified tomorrow that every single top-ten dynasty running back tore his ACL in practice, whose value would drop the most? Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, right? Because they’re the oldest and now we’re talking about 28–29-year-olds coming off of major knee injuries – that’s exactly what happened to Nick Chubb.
But Bijan Robinson’s value wouldn’t change much. Jahmyr Gibbs’ value wouldn’t change much. Even guys like Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, De’Von Achane, Kenneth Walker, and Jonathon Brooks, all of those guys would lose value in the short term, but they’d have every opportunity to gain it back later because of their age. Barkley doesn’t have that luxury, and also doesn’t have the elite league-breaking production that McCaffrey offers either that makes his price more tolerable because he can just drop 30 points without scoring a touchdown, and he can do that basically every week – that’s the difference between them.
So if you’re a contender who has Barkley, I would be actively trying to pivot to a younger running back who is also just as productive.
I would pay the age tax of a dynasty WR2-3ish to move to Jahmyr Gibbs or Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson.
I would side-grade to Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, or De’Von Achane.
I would even entertain a tier-down to Isiah Pacheco or Jonathon Brooks if you got another big piece on top that helps you elsewhere.
I would rather sell Barkley at a premium and then re-invest in older running backs like Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, or Alvin Kamara at MUCH cheaper prices because realistically, they all can score within points of each other and that isn’t making a difference for your starting lineup, but it is making a difference for the overall value and health of your dynasty team because of what you were able to sell Barkley for.
Davante Adams, WR LV & Stefon Diggs, WR HOU
The last two players I want to sell as a contender are Adams and Diggs, but I actually covered why I want to sell them in a previous video just a couple of weeks ago, so you can check that video out right here!
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