2024 Dynasty Breakouts and Disappointments: Who is This Year’s…?
Dynasty managers are far too keen to focus on the future and ignore the past. Understanding history can help you identify trends, and reasons for success and failure – providing key information to help us predict future performance.
In this article I will be reviewing the key player performances from 2023 and applying theory to predict the potential 2024 equivalent outcome. Last year provided a couple of unique, outlier performances in Puka Nacua and Sam LaPorta, which are unlikely to be repeated in the near future – hence they are omitted from the predictions for 2024.
2024 version of 2023 Jordan Love
Last year was the coming-out party for Love. He finished as the QB5 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) in his first full season as a starting quarterback. Love was efficient as a passer, making the most of his young weapons while delivering good rushing production with four touchdowns on the ground – providing a balanced output for fantasy production.
Out of the potential contenders to predict the 2024 version of Love, the focus is on second-year quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson already displayed excellent fantasy production when healthy and while Bryce Young could make the leap, it would be a huge turnaround from a disappointing rookie season.
Will Levis is the player I predict will make strong progress and replicate Love’s 2023 success. Levis was below average last year, however he flashed rushing upside and passing efficiency (including a four-touchdown performance against Atlanta). While a QB5 finish will be difficult to achieve, Levis is set up for a true breakout in 2024 – with improved weapons and a new offensive scheme under head coach Brian Callahan, making him an interesting target in dynasty.
2024 version of 2023 Bryce Young
2023 was a disappointing rookie season for Young, who finished as the QB23 overall and an impressively bad QB42 in FPPG. While the talent is there for the first overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, the situation in Carolina was difficult with a lack of weapons and surrounding talent, resulting in a poor rookie season and question marks over his future dynasty outlook.
When thinking about the 2024 version of Young, the pathway to follow is a first-round draft pick, who will struggle to deliver in fantasy due to a tricky situation and lack of offensive playmakers. One of the clear contenders is Bo Nix, who should struggle in his rookie season, however I think the talent gap as a college prospect between him and Young is significant enough to discount this projection.
Drake Maye is my selection, as a rookie who will underperform as a talented rookie in a difficult situation. The writing could be already on the wall, with reports of a similar performance to 2024 late-round quarterback Joe Milton and the potential of veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett becoming the starting Patriots’ quarterback to begin the season. The offensive talent surrounding Maye is lackluster, and a repeat of Young’s rookie season is on the cards – with the silver lining that Maye is cheaper to acquire now (QB18) than Young at this time a year ago (QB14).
Young’s rookie season was a disaster, with over 60% of his game charting as QB3 or worse (Credit: DLF Game Log App).
2024 version of 2023 Kyren Williams
Williams was a fantasy superstar in his surprising second-year breakout, finishing as the RB7 overall and a highly impressive RB2 in FPPG. The fantasy production was propelled by a shaky backfield starter in front of him (Cam Akers), excellent volume and an unsustainable 15 touchdowns on 260 touches – making this a difficult task to find a similar unheralded player, in a strong offense, who could become an RB1 with volume and touchdown efficiency.
Players like Zach Charbonnet and Kendre Miller would fit the bill if not for the excellent backfield partners in their current situations, where their true breakout is unlikely for the next couple of seasons. A logical choice based on a player likely to have an excellent 2024 in an ambiguous backfield would be Tyjae Spears, albeit he would need an injury to land the starting full-time role over the recently acquired Tony Pollard. Spears is in line to breakout, however that could be due to different factors than Williams, with production through receiving output and explosive plays.
Chase Brown is the player I’m opting for, as a second-year running back, in an ambiguous backfield with Zack Moss – who has delivered an average career, with a possibility of a reduced role through ineffectiveness or injury, as a player who has yet to play meaningful snaps for a full season. Brown possesses a skillset and college profile to be a volume player in the optimal situation. While it will take an outlier performance to match Williams’ 2023 season, Brown has the capability to pay off as a true breakout candidate at a cheap cost in dynasty.
2024 version of 2023 Austin Ekeler
After finishing as the RB2 and RB1 in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Ekeler finished a disappointing RB21 in FPPG, during his age-28 season. While niggling injuries could be a factor behind the performance, this could also be due to the age cliff, for a player with a fair amount of mileage on the clock and on the downside of his fantasy career.
Who is the next aging running back to hit the wall and suffer a significant performance dip? While Alvin Kamara was still strong in FPPG, the explosiveness and efficiency took a dip in 2023. Another contender would be Aaron Jones, a 29-year-old who has battled injuries throughout his career, although he actually finished worse than Ekeler as the RB26 in FPPG last year. Another option would be James Conner, although despite his age was able to produce an RB1 finish in FPPG.
Despite being an extremely popular asset, Derrick Henry is the most logical pick as a player who could fall off the cliff of fantasy production. Henry will be 31 in January, recently moved to the first new team of his career in Baltimore and last year produced his lowest touchdowns per game and touches per game since he became a starting running back. While his career has been an outlier, time and usage could be catching up with Henry and an Ekeler-type 2023 could be upon us, making him risky to fully rely on in dynasty.
Henry has been a true workhorse at his peak, but looks like the days of extreme usage are over (Credit: DLF Game Log App).
2024 version of 2023 DJ Moore
2023 was finally the year Moore fulfilled his early career promise and delivered an excellent fantasy season, finishing as the WR9 in FPPG. The move from a myriad of quarterbacks in Carolina to the sporadic playmaker Justin Fields in Chicago was a huge factor in Moore’s ascension. Also being the clear target in the offense and playing from behind most weeks were positive factors for his true breakout.
One of the most hyped 2023 wide receivers who is working with a new quarterback is the Falcons’ Drake London. The upgrade in surrounding talent and offensive scheme sets him up to succeed, however this is a loaded offense with other breakout capabilities in Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, where I struggle to see a WR1 ceiling in 2024. Another possibility when predicting this year’s Moore is George Pickens, an upcoming talent who has flashed brilliance. There is a wide range of outcomes, but again WR1 feels like a leap too far.
Terry McLaurin is the player I can picture making the true breakout like Moore, with the addition of Jayden Daniels at quarterback and no real competition for volume, on a team projected to be playing from behind and a facilitative pass environment. Many could consider a WR1 finish outside of his capabilities, however McLaurin was the WR14 in 2022. With a little luck in the touchdown column (Moore’s highest touchdown total was in 2023), McLaurin can make a similar impact this year.
2024 version of 2023 Quentin Johnston
In what could be described as one of the most underwhelming rookie seasons of the modern era, Johnston’s fantasy finish as the WR88 in FPPG was extremely disappointing. Johnston produced a historically bad Reception Perception profile, charting at first percentile in man and zone coverage success and second percentile in press coverage. Johnston was used inadequately based on his skillset, with the majority of his play on the outside of the formation and in press coverage.
One option to be a huge disappointment is Brian Thomas Jr, a raw talent and late breakout at LSU, where his explosive 2023 production came in an extremely facilitative passing environment. Despite the concerns, I think Thomas Jr can win in a number of ways and alignments at this level. Another contender would be Xavier Legette, who only began to shine during his fifth year in college and joins a high-risk situation in Carolina. There are numerous reasons why Legette could struggle as a rookie, including question marks over the aforementioned starting quarterback Young.
The most logical choice to repeat Johnston’s disappointing rookie season is Keon Coleman. Similar to Johnston, his college tape showed excellent highlights at the high end but inconsistency overall. Due to athletic limitations, Coleman is best deployed as a big-slot wide receiver. The fear would be if Coleman is miscast as an outside wide receiver, much like Johnston’s rookie season. This is a likely occurrence, due to the other key Buffalo wide receivers projecting as stronger slot options and limited size to play on the outside (Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir). If the usage is like Johnston’s in 2023, Coleman will also be set up to fail this season.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
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