Dynasty Trending Observations: Jonathan Mingo, Justin Fields and Rico Dowdle
Not only do we have more training camp nuggets to parse but now we have preseason games too. It truly is Christmas for dynasty and fantasy football players alike. Below are some of the presents we’ve been gifted and what to do with them.
That’s a Mingo
Jonathan Mingo looks like a completely different player from an outside route running perspective this summer. Made a nice double for a touchdown in 1 on 1 red zone. #Panthers
— Mike Kaye (@mike_e_kaye) August 6, 2024
The start of the Bryce Young era in Carolina last season was an unmitigated disaster. Young had one of the worst rookie seasons for a quarterback in modern history. It was so bad, that head coach Frank Reich was fired midway through the season. The failures at the top had a trickle-down effect on the Panthers’ offense where the team finished second-to-last in offensive DVOA and had exactly one receiver post more than 525 yards on the season (Adam Thielen, who managed to notch a 1,000-yard season).
One of those victims was second-round pick Jonathan Mingo. The 39th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Mingo was tapped to develop with Young. But both ended up disappointing, as Mingo finished his rookie season with 43 receptions for 418 yards and no touchdowns. He barely finished as a top-100 fantasy receiver which is not what you want out of your second-round rookie pick.
Fast forward to this off-season and, while it is early, it looks like Mingo has turned a corner. He’s regularly impressed in training camp and is slated to begin the season as a starter. Is it legit or typical padless hype?
Dynasty Impact: Every year, a player who didn’t perform last year suddenly finds the ability to be good. Sometimes it lasts, sometimes it doesn’t. But there are a few things going in Mingo’s favor that might put him in the former category.
For starters, he’s got a much better coaching staff, one that turned Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense last year into something respectable and had not one, but two, 1,000-yard receivers. Bryce Young also has a year under his belt and won’t be nearly as shell-shocked (we hope) this season.
Mingo’s stock had about fallen off a cliff in the last 12 months.
Between the cheap cost and the upside, it may be worth it to take a flier on Mingo before the season starts. According to our DLF Trade Analyzer, Mingo is currently worth, at most, a third-round rookie pick. I’d much rather have the sophomore receiver, who’s still just 23, and trending up instead of the lottery ticket who is a late-round rookie pick. He is tapped to start, as indicated by his usage in the first preseason game this past weekend, and would be the biggest beneficiary of a Carolina bounceback.
In the Pitts
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin confirmed that there is, in fact, a QB competition between Justin Fields and Russell Wilson.
Wilson, who is dealing with a calf injury, remains QB1.
Fields will start on Friday vs. the Texans, while Wilson will not play.pic.twitter.com/89upXew1x7
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 7, 2024
The Pittsburgh Steelers are really going to see if two wrongs will make it right at the quarterback position this season. It’s now been two seasons since future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger retired and Pittsburgh’s first attempt at finding a long-term replacement failed. They drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft only to ship him to cross-state rivals Philadelphia two seasons later.
Their second attempt will involve a contest between two veterans – one old, one not – to see who can win the job for the foreseeable future. First, they signed Russell Wilson after Denver famously let him go. They then traded a later-round pick for former Bears quarterback Justin Fields. Thus the stage was set for a quarterback battle this off-season.
Wilson was leading the competition before a nagging calf injury kept him off the sideline, so Fields took the field first in the Steelers’ preseason game. His performance was uninspiring which means this competition is far from settled.
Dynasty Impact: Neither Wilson nor Fields presents an attractive choice for either Pittsburgh or dynasty teams and Fields’ turnover issues are not making it any easier. They’ve both cratered when it comes to dynasty value and are, for the moment, valued about equally.
But if forced to choose, at least from a dynasty standpoint, lean toward Fields. Russell Wilson is now 35 years old while Fields is a full decade younger. There’s also the run game that Fields can still utilize as opposed to Wilson who’s lost a step. The turnovers don’t help the case for Fields but he has more time on his side. Again, neither are long-term solutions but if you’re in need of a cheap quarterback, in a superflex league only, Fields would be the preference.
Annexation of (Puerto) Rico Dowdle
Per @jonmachota of @TheAthletic, Rico Dowdle “has to be a favorite to lead the [Cowboys] in rushing”
In my opinion, Dowdle is the cheapest RB in fantasy that is the favorite to lead their team in fantasy points. Has been the most underpriced RB in best ball the whole offseason pic.twitter.com/oANMV8pwTz
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) August 7, 2024
The running back position for the Dallas Cowboys has been a productive one for several years, from DeMarco Murray leading the league in rushing to Ezekiel Elliott bursting on the scene as a rookie to Tony Pollard being an RB1 in a limited role. Now, it seems to be veteran Rico Dowdle’s turn to lead the Cowboys in rushing. The fifth-year veteran with less than 100 rush attempts for his career is projected to lead the running game despite the Cowboys re-signing Elliott in the off-season. And while we don’t know how long it will last, it seems to be the case to start the season.
Dynasty Impact: I firmly believe that there are no long-term solutions to running back in dynasty leagues. Much like the real NFL, running backs experience a ton of turnover. Therefore, you shouldn’t spend a lot of assets on acquiring them. Instead, look for starters where you can and pay a lower price. This would be the case for Dowdle. Using the DLF Trade Finder, Dowdle is going for third-round rookie picks or something similar.
That looks about right. Despite Dallas bringing Elliott back – and him being a Jerry Jones favorite – a mid-round rookie pick is not a lot for a starting running back which Dowdle appears to be after the first preseason game. The Cowboys offense is primed to do well again (assuming they get their studs back on the field) and Dowdle will benefit from that.
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Khalil Shakir, Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford - March 2, 2025
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Cooper Kupp, Aaron Rodgers and Deebo Samuel Moving On - February 16, 2025
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Coaching Changes to Help Brian Thomas Jr and Dak Prescott? - February 2, 2025
