The 2024 Perfect Startup Draft: Superflex Zero RB
We continue with our 2024 “Perfect Draft” strategy series, focusing on how to win your startup dynasty drafts. Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:
- Win Now
- Value
- Balanced
- Productive Struggle
- Fake Punt
- Bully QB/TE
- Robust RB
Today, we’re going to continue the series with an analysis of a superflex draft using a zero-RB strategy. When using this strategy, you’re passing on all running backs in the first six or seven rounds while stockpiling valuable quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. This strategy is popular in traditional redraft leagues, but it can be even more valuable in dynasty leagues where the career length of a typical running back is much shorter than the other three main positions.
Instead of drafting one or two studs early in the draft, a zero-RB approach focuses instead on drafting three or four backs in the middle rounds that have unrealized upside. For this exercise, we’re going to follow three different teams through twelve rounds of picks to see how their team develops when starting from different draft slots in the first round.
Using July Superflex ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.
First Round
Early (Team One): Josh Allen, QB BUF
No matter what draft strategy you’re employing, quarterbacks are always going to go early in the first round in superflex drafts. As good as Patrick Mahomes is in real football, Josh Allen has his number in fantasy football. Allen has been the QB1 in three of the last four seasons and it doesn’t seem like he’ll slow down anytime soon.
Mid (Team Two): CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
The middle of the first round is a difficult place to be because you have to decide between taking the sixth or seventh best quarterback or getting your pick of the litter at wide receiver. In this hypothetical draft, the top-six quarterbacks are all off the board so team two had to decide between CeeDee Lamb/Justin Jefferson or Joe Burrow/Kyler Murray.
They decided to go with Lamb who finishes as the WR1 in 2023 with 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. This isn’t an easy call between Lamb and Jefferson, but the QB uncertainty in Minnesota cannot be ignored.
Late (Team Three): Kyler Murray, QB ARI
I’m all in on Murray this season and think he has one of the best chances to finish as the overall QB1 outside of Josh Allen. Murray has finished as a top-12 quarterback each year of his career and has one of the highest-rushing floors of any player at the position. The Cardinals should take a massive jump offensively with a fully healthy Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr, and a full year of Trey McBride starting at tight end.
Second Round
Early (Team Three): Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET
Team three pairs Kyler Murray with Amon-Ra St. Brown at the turn and it’s hard to ask for a much better start than this. ARSB is locked in as a top-five dynasty wide receiver for the next decade.
Mid (Team Two): Dak Prescott, QB DAL
After passing on a quarterback in round one, team two selects Prescott and pairs him with Lamb. Prescott isn’t young anymore, but at only 31 he has plenty of elite seasons left. The Cowboys are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL and Prescott has turned in four top-ten finishes at the position in his career.
Late (Team One): Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
I believe this is the most difficult spot in the entire draft if you’re trying to adhere to a zero RB strategy because Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs all have ADPs between pick 18 and pick 23. The end of the second round is the most likely spot to draft a stud RB in Superflex formats but with this strategy we’re going to pass on one of the top four and instead take Lawrence, the QB14, to solidify our quarterback room for the next decade.
Third Round
Early (Team One): AJ Brown, WR PHI
I was shocked to see Brown falling all the way into the third round with an ADP of 25. This is a no-brainer selection to pair with our two-quarterback start. Brown has finished as the WR8 in each of the last two seasons in Philadelphia and the addition of Kellen Moore at OC should only serve to further unlock this passing attack.
Mid (Team Two): Malik Nabers, WR NYG
Team two is staying in the NFC East for their third selection and taking Nabers out of LSU. He is winning the off-season with plenty of highlight-reel catches constantly going viral. The obvious downside is Nabers has to catch passes from Daniel Jones, but we’re not only focused on the upcoming season. Once the Giants finally decide to improve upon their QB situation, Nabers will skyrocket in value.
Late (Team Three): Jared Goff, QB DET
Team three passed on their second quarterback at the 1-2 turn and it paid off because they get to complete the Detroit stack with Goff and ARSB. Goff is the perfect second quarterback in dynasty; since coming to Detroit, he finished as the QB12 in 2023 and the QB14 in 2022. Goff has limited rushing value, but Ben Johnson and his surrounding weapons help keep Goff atop the QB2 market. Throw in a new four-year contract with $170 million guaranteed and he’s one of the safest picks in dynasty.
Fourth Round
Early (Team Three): Nico Collins, WR HOU
Nico Collins was poised for a breakout but I don’t think anyone saw his 2023 coming. With CJ Stroud in town, Collins caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. Houston has quickly become a crowded receiving room with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, but Stroud just might be good enough to keep them all fantasy-relevant.
Mid (Team Two): Trey McBride, TE ARI
The board isn’t really falling team two’s way and they are unable to secure a second quarterback so instead of reaching, they grab McBride who’s currently the TE2 in ADP. McBride looked great down the stretch once Zack Ertz was finally released; he finished the season with 106 targets, 81 catches, 825 yards, and three touchdowns. If McBride can score around six touchdowns in 2024, he could compete for the crown of TE1.
Late (Team One): DK Metcalf, WR SEA
With only one wide receiver through the first three rounds for team one, it’s time to attack the position heavily and they add AJ Brown’s former college teammate DK Metcalf who’s finished as a top-24 WR in each of the last four seasons and is still only 26 years old.
Fifth Round
Early (Team One): DJ Moore, WR CHI
DJ Moore exploded in his first season in Chicago to the tune of 96 catches, 1,364 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He recently signed a long-term extension to keep him in the Windy City until 2029 and grow alongside Caleb Williams. Team one avoided wide receiver early, and still ended up with an excellent trio of AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore.
Mid (Team Two): Zay Flowers, WR BAL
Flowers looked like the real deal from day one and quickly turned into Lamar Jackson’s #1 option at wide receiver. The upside will always be a bit limited with Jackson at quarterback, but the offense’s commitment to getting him the ball will keep Flowers’s weekly floor high.
Late (Team Three): Tee Higgins, WR CIN
Higgins isn’t the sexiest pick, but he’s due for a bounce-back season after both he and Joe Burrow dealt with injuries in 2023. Higgins signed a one-year contract with the Bengals this offseason but his future with the team is in jeopardy. Even with all the unknown, Higgins is too talented to pass up in this spot.
Sixth Round
Early (Team Three): Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Team three adds another pass catcher to the roster via the tight end position by selecting Pitts. Every fantasy player is chasing Pitts’s rookie season which saw him become the second rookie tight end ever to eclipse 1,000 yards. However, his production has fallen off a cliff since that season. The hope in Atlanta is the addition of Kirk Cousins and the subtraction of Arthur Smith should fully unlock Pitts in this offense.
Mid (Team Two): Jordan Addison, WR MIN
Team two passed on Justin Jefferson in the first round, but decided they still wanted a piece of Minnesota’s offense under Kevin O’Connell. Jordan Addison had an excellent rookie season playing alongside Jefferson with a revolving door at quarterback. There is some uncertainty about how JJ McCarthy will transition to the NFL and Addison’s pending legal situation, but the talent is too immense to pass up in this spot.
Team two is slowly building a young and exciting wide receiver room with Ceedee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison.
Late (Team One): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
The WR onslaught doesn’t stop for team one as they go with Smith-Njigba with their pick at the end of the sixth round. JSN didn’t have the rookie season many were expecting, but a change at offensive coordinator should be able to unlock his potential. The only potential hurdle for team one with this selection is they now have two receivers from Seattle with Metcalf also on the roster. The long-term potential is clear to see, but it may not be realized until Tyler Lockett is gone.
Seventh Round
Early (Team One): TJ Hockenson, TE MIN
Team one finally deviates from wide receiver after four straight selections at the position, but they don’t stop accumulating pass catchers. TJ Hockenson may start 2024 slowly as he works back from a torn ACL, but Hockenson is still one of the best young tight ends in the NFL. Hockenson finished as a top-seven tight end in each of the last four seasons.
Team one also fulfilled the rare quad-stack of players with two-letter first names as they drafted AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and TJ Hockenson. Maybe they’ve unlocked the key to dynasty that everyone else has been missing?
Mid (Team Two): Trey Benson, RB ARI
Team two finally drafts their first running back here in the seventh round when they select Trey Benson from the Cardinals. Benson was the second running back taken in April’s draft and will eventually take over for James Conner. Benson is an explosive back who showed quality pass-catching ability during his time at Florida State.
Late (Team Three): Jayden Reed, WR GB
Reed was one of the hidden gems from a very talented class of rookie WRs in 2023. Reed finished the year with 64 catches, 793 yards and eight touchdowns. As good as he was last season, the Green Bay receiving room is awfully crowded with quite a few players looking to take the next step but not everyone will be able to emerge.
Eighth Round
Early (Team Three): Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
Team three adds another young WR to their stacked room with the rookie McConkey. Every report this offseason is hinting at McConkey potentially emerging as the #1 option for Justin Herbert this season. If that ends up coming to fruition then McConkey will be a steal in the eighth round; there are a lot of vacated targets in Los Angeles with the departure of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Mid (Team Two): Baker Mayfield, QB TB
After missing out on the quarterback position at different spots in this draft, team two finally adds Mayfield as their second option. It’s never ideal to wait until the eighth round to draft a second quarterback in a Superflex league, but there are definitely worse options than Mayfield who’s only 29 years old and recently signed a three-year extension to remain the starter in Tampa Bay.
Late (Team One): D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Finally, after punting the position for seven and a half rounds, team one selects their D’Andre Swift who signed with the Chicago Bears this offseason. Swift finally showed that he was capable of handling a full workload on the ground last year when he logged 229 rush attempts for Philadelphia, but unfortunately for him, the tush push vulture a few of his scoring opportunities. Swift is the perfect running back to target in zero-RB starts because he’s only 25 years old, doesn’t have a lot of tread on his tires, and seemingly has a backfield to himself.
Ninth Round
Early (Team One): Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
After neglecting the position for seven rounds, team one selects a running back with consecutive picks by adding Tyjae Spears to their roster. Spears showed plenty of explosiveness playing behind Derrick Henry a year ago and is also an elite pass-catching option. He will have to compete with Tony Pollard for touches in Teneessee’s backfield, but based on everything we’ve seen Spears should win that competition.
Mid (Team Two): Joe Mixon, RB HOU
Team two makes one of the best picks of the entire draft by selecting Mixon in the ninth round. At this ADP, Mixon is a home-run pick and a priority for anyone employing a zero-RB strategy. Mixon isn’t as young as he once was, but at only 27 he still has a couple of good seasons left in those legs. Plus, the Texans felt strongly enough about Mixon’s remaining worth to offer him a three-year contract this offseason with$16 million guaranteed.
Late (Team Three): Zamir White, RB LV
Team three waited the longest to select their first running back in this draft and they came away with White who should be in line for a massive workload in Las Vegas without Josh Jacobs. In four starts to end the season, White had 84 rushes for 397 yards and a touchdown.
Tenth Round
Early (Team Three): Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
Warren is the poster child for the zero-RB strategy. He’s been excellent in limited action as the 1B option in Pittsburgh and provides stand-alone fantasy value. Warren finished as the RB29 last year and finished as a top-24 back eight different weeks. If Najee Harris ever misses extended time, Warren would be due for a huge workload.
Mid (Team Two): Calvin Ridley, WR TEN
After ignoring the position for a few rounds to solidify the QB and RB rooms, team two takes Ridley to help add depth at the WR position. Ridley had an up-and-down 2023 that was marred with highlight reels of his dropped passes, but he still finished with 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns. Ridley will probably never return to his 2020 form, but there are a lot worse options for WR5 behind a group of young studs.
Late (Team One): James Conner, RB ARI
Many people have been waiting for the day Conner finally falls off a cliff but the 29-year-old seems to have plenty of juice left in the tank. Conner accumulated 1,205 total yards and nine total touchdowns on his way to an RB13 finish in 2023. The Cardinals selected Trey Benson to eventually take over for Conner, but the way he’s playing that might not be right away.
Eleventh Round
Early (Team One): Jameson Williams, WR DET
Team one drafted four stud wide receivers early but now they decided to take a swing on young upside. All the reports out of camp this off-season suggest that this is finally the year we see Jameson Williams take the next step and put it all together. I’ll believe it when I see it, but Williams could end up being a massive value in the 11th round after being selected with the 12th overall pick just three years ago.
Mid (Team Two): MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB
Lloyd was the fourth running back taken in the 2024 draft and all reports indicate that he will have a role in his first season in Green Bay. Josh Jacobs will undoubtedly begin the year as the starter, but his numbers have been dwindling for some time in Las Vegas and the Packers can easily move on from him after this season.
Late (Team Three): Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Team three finishes rounding out their running back room with Chubb. There are obvious concerns with Chubb as he recovers from a gruesome ACL injury early in the 2023 season, but all reports indicate that he will be ready for the season opener. Even if Chubb can only return to 85% of his prior form, he’s still one of the 15 best running backs in the NFL.
Twelfth Round
Early (Team Three): Ben Sinnott, TE WAS
Sinnott is a bit of a luxury pick here with Kyle Pitts already on the roster, but there are still concerns with what we’ve seen from Pitts the last two years. Plus, this is a point in the draft where there aren’t a lot of better options. Sinnott was great at Kansas State playing both tight end and H-back and pops in a lot of the advanced metrics that are important for rookie tight ends.
Mid (Team Two): Justin Fields, QB PIT
After failing to draft their QB2 until the eighth round, team two has to quickly find a high-upside QB3 to round out this position on their roster. After being dealt by the Chicago Bears this offseason, there has been nothing but positive camp buzz surrounding Fields in Pittsburgh. He’s currently competing with Russell Wilson for the starting job, and with Wilson’s nagging calf injury Fields might have a chance. Fields finished as a top-nine quarterback each of the last two years and team two is shooting for upside with this selection.
Late (Team One): Chase Brown, RB CIN
Team one ends their draft with one last running back selection and there may not be a better late-round pick than Chase Brown when employing a zero-RB strategy. Brown showed a lot of potential and big-play ability a year ago for the Bengals. Now, Brown finds himself in a backfield with a lot of touches up for grabs and could easily beat Zack Moss for the starting RB job in Cincinnati.
Team One:
- Josh Allen
- Trevor Lawrence
- AJ Brown
- DK Metcalf
- DJ Moore
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- TJ Hockenson
- D’Andre Swift
- Tyjae Spears
- James Conner
- Daniel Jones
- Chase Brown
Team Two:
- Ceedee Lamb
- Dak Prescott
- Malik Nabers
- Trey McBride
- Zay Flowers
- Jordan Addison
- Trey Benson
- Baker Mayfield
- Joe Mixon
- Calvin Ridley
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Justin Fields
Team Three:
- Kyler Murray
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Jared Goff
- Nico Collins
- Tee Higgins
- Kyle Pitts
- Jayden Reed
- Ladd McConkey
- Zamir White
- Jaylen Warren
- Nick Chubb
- Ben Sinnott
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