Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC South

After debuting this miniseries a few years back, I’m excited to have the opportunity to author the 2024 iteration!

With the NFL draft now months behind us, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next month (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF top-250 rankings;
• The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s continue with the NFC South! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Atlanta Falcons

Buy: Michael Penix, QB (ADP = 209.8, Rank = 210.0)

It’s been a few months so I’m over what appeared to be, at least on the surface, one of the most shocking picks in recent years. At 24.3 years old Penix isn’t exactly a spring chicken entering the league, but this also means he comes largely pro-ready as a “seen it all, done it all, wrote the book” type of guy.

Stats Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Okay, so he’s no Bo Nix (1,936 collegiate attempts… 64 more and he’d get a set of steak knives), but as can be gleaned from the above he got better each year, culminating in nearly 5,000 passing yards as a sixth-year senior. As a Penn State fan and general Big 10 (or whatever it is these days) enthusiast, he was near the only thing that made the Hoosiers watchable, and I won’t hold those years against him.

Starter Kirk Cousins will turn 36 years old in just over a week, and is coming off a major injury. Surprises aside, Penix was a top-ten NFL draft pick. It might be something of a growth fund, but I believe he’ll pay off, providing more upside than others on the back of your bench.

Sell: Bijan Robinson, RB (ADP = 5.3, Rank = 8.2)

If anyone deserves an Arthur Smith-based pass, it’s probably Robinson. Despite averaging 4.6 YPA and 8.4 YPR, the rookie topped out at 300 total opportunities (carries plus targets) and 272 touches. Combined with the moribund combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, the odds were assuredly against the prince who was promised.

But whether it’s the promise of a new coaching staff, more competent play under center, or a long-term future with Penix, Robinson hasn’t missed a beat. And while I don’t take any inherent issue with that, I would personally have Breece Hall ahead of him in the pecking order, and fellow freshman Jahmyr Gibbs was only eight points behind him on 38 fewer touches. If he stays healthy, the venerable Christian McCaffrey also stands as a near-lock to lead the field. Given this, a status as the RB1 could feel slightly unjustified – if you find yourself in this camp, you can still get out for a handsome prize.

Hold: Darnell Mooney, WR (ADP = 207.8, Rank = 173.7)

Once viewed as a promising young talent, Mooney’s value has dropped precipitously since a second-year breakout resulted in his first and only 1,000-yard season. The young receiver had climbed as high as an early fifth-round ADP in August of 2022, which was followed by a steady decrease in value over the next two years. Even a slight market correction in April 2024 has been followed by another small drop to a ranking as the WR82 overall.

Still, it’s at least notable that Mooney appeared to have more success during his early-career breakout with pocket passer Andy Dalton versus with dual-threat Justin Fields, with three of his four 100-yard games and a majority of his targets coming from the Red Rifle. This isn’t to say Fields is to blame either, as he was able to support a top-end pass catcher last season in DJ Moore. Rather, it’s to open the possibility that the two didn’t sync. The numbers from the DLF Player Splits app support this theory. If Cousins returns fully intact, it would not surprise me if Mooney became the second target on the team following fellow receiver Drake London. If you’re not already buying, you should be holding strong.

Carolina Panthers

Buy: Xavier Legette, WR (ADP = 86.8, Rank = 112.5)

You have to give them this, the Panthers are trying! Legette, the last pick in the 2024 NFL Draft’s first round, follows 2023 second-round pick Jonathan Mingo, who followed prior second-round pick Terrace Marshall. New import Diontae Johnson (more on him below) follows 2023 signee Adam Thielen, who somewhat surprisingly turned into the team’s top weapon on offense last season.

https://www.4for4.com/teams/depth-charts.

But after shooing away my initial doubts, I’m coming around on Legette as future alpha. He’s a massive human being, who in addition to the explosion shown below also ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash.

That said, we know why he’s still going as a low-end WR4 – it took him roughly forever and a day to finally break out, but when he did he did it like gangbusters. It’s not ideal, but for a player new to the position it was at least a step in the right direction. Despite the seeming wealth of quality veterans and highly drafted youngsters, the Panthers traded up a spot to ensure they nabbed him, and the early camp reports have been promising. I’d be pushing the hate aside and nabbing him at cost.

Sell: Jonathon Brooks, RB (ADP = 44.0, Rank = 62.7)

And then, of course, we have Brooks. Drafted half a round after Legette in real life, Brooks’ ADP is nearly half his rookie teammate’s. Color me skeptical.

Effectively Roschon Johnson sans a draft day slide, Brooks is nevertheless a one-year wonder, only managing 51 rushing attempts in his first two collegiate seasons. His breakout was great, but it’s at least somewhat reasonable to note that the Longhorns backfield was still something of a committee with CJ Baxter. As I just said with Legette, everyone’s path is different – but Brooks is going off the board as a low-end RB1 and fourth-round pick. With similar question marks, this could represent an opportunity to sell.

Hold: Diontae Johnson, WR (ADP = 64.7, Rank = 73.2)

If dynasty fantasy football had a Haters’ Ball (hat tip to Chappelle’s Show), Johnson might very well hold the seat of honor. To be clear, his sole crimes are commanding targets and vacuuming up receptions whenever he sets foot on the field. Just see the above, which shows a whole heck of a lot of green despite Pittsburgh’s league-worst talent at quarterback in 2024.

While they won’t be confused with the Dolphins or Eagles, the Panthers have some intrigue at receiver. And while I do believe Legette may be the future, it will likely be Johnson who supplants Thielen as the team’s present WR1. Despite a disastrous rookie season from quarterback Bryce Young, Thielen still managed 103 receptions in 2023. If Johnson can effectively provide a “plus” version of his older teammate, holding will have wound up being the prudent move.

New Orleans Saints

Buy: Taysom Hill, TE (ADP = N/A, Rank = 233.5)

Every now and again you see a piece of data such as Hill’s ADP, and wonder why we’re making this so darn hard on ourselves. I’ll keep this one quick – despite his status as a Swiss army knife and part-time tight end, Hill was the 2023 PPR TE12. The year before he was the PPR TE16. He’s very clearly a staple of the offense, and the current drumbeat out of camp asserts that his role is set to grow even larger in 2024.

It’s not conventional, but it works. Hill will get his points one way or another, and due to his diverse utilization there’s a mad scientist argument that he actually possesses more upside at the position than any of his fellow tight ends. I don’t think I’m there, but if I’m passing over his more highly drafted compatriots, I’m looking to snag Hill as a high-ceiling arbitrage bet.

Sell: Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP = 84.7, Rank = 84.3)

What a long, strange trip it’s been. I’ve gone through the game logs and have attempted to make sense of Kamara’s massive ADP bump in November 2023, but am coming up empty. He got the volume (four straight games of 17+ carries), and also had a massive 12-reception game against the Jaguars. But perhaps not shockingly, he was demonstrably inefficient, not supplying a single game above 4.0 YPC until the second week in November.

The market clearly corrected, but Kamara was then further Thanos-snapped into dust in 2024. Yet despite this he’s gained value since February, while fellow veteran Aaron Jones has lost it despite being significantly more efficient. Perhaps it’s the number of games missed by the now-Viking, but I just don’t get it. Kamara hasn’t been good for a few years now, and as a smaller ball carrier it’s hard to see him doing anything but treading water unless he returns to his ways of being (arguably) the best pass-catching ball carrier in the league.

Hold: Kendre Miller, RB (ADP = 135.8, Rank = 132.7)

Still recovering from injury, Miller wasn’t able to perform most testing metrics at last year’s NFL Combine. But his college numbers showed both efficiency and an ability to function as a bell cow, even if the receiving numbers are a bit lower than we’d prefer for future projection.

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Around this time last year, Miller was often being selected in the late first round of 1QB rookie drafts. Now he’s considered more as a throw-in to larger deals, or being worth significantly less draft pick capital. But if Kamara is potentially moving down the ranks, another ball carrier might be moving up. And unless you think it’s going to be the molasses-slow Jamaal Williams, Miller stands as a great hold.

You might be thinking, okay Eric, then why the hate for Brooks above? It’s fairly simple to me -Miller basically was Brooks a year ago, and was probably overvalued then. But he’s since sank like a stone, thereby changing his value trajectory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy: Chris Godwin, WR (ADP = 78.5, Rank = 74.2)

Godwin has been good, but he hasn’t been the same player he was with Tom Brady and Jameis Winston under center. Now 28 years old, it seems as though all benefit of the doubt may have evaporated. With that in mind, it makes me wonder if he’s being unfairly punished by the masses by being forced to stack up against his previous highs.

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference

If you believe Godwin will bounce back as I do, now’s the time to strike. It will very clearly depend on your league setting, but if you can get him for less than the equivalent of a future first-round pick I believe you will have done well. Reportedly looking like his “old self” in training camp, there exists something of a “second career” type of trajectory for the veteran.

Sell: Mike Evans, WR (ADP = 53.7, Rank = 64.2)

Finishing the season as the PPR WR7, Evans clearly outperformed Godwin in 2023. This has perhaps resulted in something of a rare feat – a veteran receiver on the wrong side of 30 who has managed to not only gain value, but maintain it for now half a year. With that said, if Godwin produces as he’s able, this could wind up as something of a zero sum game for Evans. And if he falls off, the fall has a chance to be precipitous given his age. Evans isn’t a screaming sell, being that his fantasy value will continue to outpace his dynasty value for the remainder of his career – but selling now, particularly for rebuilding squads, could be the prudent move.

Hold: Cade Otton, TE (ADP = 213.7, Rank = 207.5)

Statistics courtesy of FFToday

You’re seeing this, right? The tight end position is largely, shall we put it mildly, a bit unfortunate. As such it doesn’t take a whole heck of a lot to be fantasy viable. Otton was merely the TE20 in 2023, but incredibly that was only 20-ish points outside the PPR TE1 realm. As Otton is being selected with an ADP of 213.7, this makes him a strong hold if perhaps not a screaming buy. I don’t know if it will ultimately translate to fantasy stardom, but given the squishiness at the position any improvement from Otton could yield dividends.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

NFC South	Team	Buy	Sell	Hold
Name	ADP	Rank	Name	ADP	Rank	Name	ADP	Rank
Atlanta Falcons	Michael Penix	209.8	210.0	Bijan Robinson	5.3	8.2	Darnell Mooney	207.8	173.7
Carolina Panthers	Xavier Legette	86.8	112.5	Jonathon Brooks	44.0	62.7	Diontae Johnson	64.7	73.2
New Orleans Saints	Taysom Hill	N/A	233.5	Alvin Kamara	84.7	84.3	Kendre Miller	135.8	132.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chris Godwin	78.5	74.2	Mike Evans	53.7	64.2	Cade Otton	213.7	207.5

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