The 2024 Perfect Startup Draft: 1QB Zero RB

Rob Willette Posted On August 9, 2024

Over the span of the next few weeks, we’re going to be bringing you our 2024 versions of the “Perfect Draft.” Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:

Win Now
Value
Balanced
Productive Struggle
Fake Punt
Zero RB
Bully QB/TE
Robust RB

Today, we’ll continue the series with a Zero RB in a single-quarterback format. The Zero RB strategy has been a lightning rod for controversy even since it was introduced, largely due to the fact many fail to grasp it conceptually before voicing their opinion.

This is not to say Zero RB is infallible. It has its risks, as does every strategy. It also provides incredible upside. It builds around positions with a bit more stability and longevity (QB/WR/TE) while looking to hit on mid-round values at running back who can either buttress the elite lineup elsewhere or potentially take it over the top with surprisingly strong performances. You do not ignore the running back position; you simply prioritize elsewhere before hammering intriguing options once you are ready.

Using July ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.

First Round

Early (Team One): Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

You are going to notice Jefferson as a constant at the top of drafts regardless of strategy. The strategy here is simple: draft good players. Jefferson is on an historic pace early in his career and has youth and a relatively strong situation on his side. You can nab a true dynasty building block early and Jefferson certainly qualifies.

Mid (Team Two): Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI

With an ADP of 1.06 and surrounded by running backs, Harrison Jr is the ideal target in the middle of round one. He is an elite prospect joining an offense in desperate need of a leading man at receiver. He could easily join the big three of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase a year from now, making him a slam dunk here.

Late (Team Three): Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

Wilson’s career has been marred by the Jetsiness of it all, yet he has maintained his lofty value thanks to performing at a high level despite nightmare circumstances. Still only 24 and with a Hall of Famer back under center – at least for the short-term – Wilson is a great building block for teams drafting late in the first round.

Second Round

Early (Team One): Chris Olave, WR NO

Olave has been an electric receiver in his first two seasons, with his only bugaboo being a lack of touchdowns (nine over two seasons). It is possible Olave is never a prolific touchdown scorer, but his overall package of skills speaks to a player who can make a fantasy impact for a long time. On the back of Jefferson in round one, Olave is a high-end WR2 in round two.

Mid (Team Two): Drake London, WR ATL

Quite possibly the only reason London is available in the middle of Round 2 is due to the abysmal quarterback play in Atlanta over the past two seasons (I am legally obligated to get an Arthur Smith jab in here too). London has looked the part, routinely passing the eye test and producing strong advanced metrics. With the Falcons double-dipping at quarterback this off-season, London could surge into the first round of dynasty drafts come 2025.

Late (Team Three): DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

Smith has not missed a beat despite the presence of AJ Brown, surpassing 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons and establishing himself as one of the league’s top second receivers. He is a steady receiver with one of the best situations in the league, making him an ideal target in this WR-heavy build.

Third Round

Early (Team One): Rome Odunze, WR CHI

A receiver prospect whose talent rivals that of Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers, Odunze is going much later thanks to a crowded receiver room in Chicago. The dip is our gain, as a potentially elite receiver falls to early round three, helping Team One assemble a juggernaut.

Mid (Team Two): DJ Moore, WR CHI

Moore soared to new heights in 2023, posting a 96-1,364-8 line despite the offense around him being in tatters. He too is having his ADP impacted by the depth of his receiving room, but Moore is a staple of this offense who recently signed an extension, tying him to Caleb Williams for the remainder of his prime.

Late (Team Three): Tank Dell, WR HOU

A devastating leg injury truncated Dell’s rookie season, but his early performance sent his stock skyrocketing. He looks like a feature player within an ascending offense, and being attached to CJ Stroud will do wonders for anyone’s value.

Fourth Round

Early (Team One): Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

Early in Round 4 is when the talent at wide receiver starts to dip, providing an opportunity to head in a different direction with an elite quarterback. You could argue Jackson’s shelf-life is shorter due to his proclivity for running, but he is still only 27 years old and has thus far avoided any major injury. The Ravens have built their team around Jackson, and he is one of the few quarterbacks capable of threatening for QB1 overall annually.

Mid (Team Two): Tee Higgins, WR CIN

While there are long-term questions related to where Tee Higgins will be playing, we know when he is on the field he is a fantasy factor. The Bengals are the ideal spot for him; even with Ja’Marr Chase across from him, he can produce big numbers with a healthy Joe Burrow. On the plus side, a move to a different team opens up a bigger target share. Regardless of his landing spot, Higgins is a fine add in the middle of Round 4.

Late (Team Three): Jordan Addison, WR MIN

The off-field incidents are well-known at this point. Addison has to make better decisions if he is to reach his full potential. On the flip side, his price has been depressed and this is a great opportunity to get an incredibly gifted player as your WR4. The reward is too great at this juncture.

Fifth Round

Early (Team One): Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

After going quarterback in Round 4, a move is made to land a top young tight end. The fantasy heartbreak surrounding Kyle Pitts has been well-documented. Context, however, is of course important. Pitts is past 2022’s knee injury and is no longer linked to Arthur Smith. He could return to the value he had after his 1,000-yard rookie season, making nabbing in Round 5 thievery.

Mid (Team Two): CJ Stroud, QB HOU

A sensational rookie season for Stroud has placed him near the elite quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. The biggest mark against him is his reticence to use his legs, though he does have the capability to add value there if he ever chooses. Armed with weapons everywhere and with a coaching staff who quickly earned our trust, Stroud is someone who could be a difference-maker for the next decade.

Late (Team Three): Keon Coleman, WR BUF

Coleman has an excellent shot to be the long-term WR1 in Buffalo, yet fantasy managers are still a bit hesitant to fully buy in. Coleman certainly has his flaws, and those cropped up as people dug into the tape this offseason. The pluses, however, are numerous and tying yourself to a Josh Allen receiver at this point is just good business.

Sixth Round

Early (Team One): James Cook, RB BUF

The first running back is off the board, as ADP has Team One investing in James Cook after loading up early at the other positions. While he is unlikely to ever dominate the fantasy landscape, Cook is a plus receiver and operates as a key cog in an explosive offense. He is a perfect fit as an RB1 on a team loaded at other spots.

Mid (Team Two): Rashee Rice, WR KC

Normally, a second-round receiver who closed his rookie year strong and has the best quarterback on the planet throwing to him would not be available anywhere near Round 6. Of course, Rashee Rice’s off-field antics have led to a dip, yet they make him a worthy selection here. His upside dwarfs those around him and rounds out this receiver group beautifully.

Late (Team Three): TJ Hockenson, TE MIN

A serious knee injury suffered late in 2023 has depressed TJ Hockenson’s stock, but this is still the rare tight end who is featured in the offense’s weekly game plan. A PPR machine, Hockenson should return to the elite at the position once he is fully recovered.

Seventh Round

Early (Team One): Christian Kirk, WR JAC

He is never a pick that gets people excited, yet Christian Kirk consistently churns out strong numbers. A sturdy veteran complements this core well, and despite feeling like a man approaching 30, Kirk is still only 27. He has a good chance to remain Jacksonville’s top target at receiver, even with the addition of Brian Thomas Jr.

Mid (Team Two): Chris Godwin, WR TB

After two perfectly fine yet uninspiring fantasy seasons, Chris Godwin has fallen into the boring old veteran bucket we so often send players into once they reach their late 20s. The Buccaneers have indicated Godwin will get more slot work in 2023, a position he thrived in during his best seasons. A well-utilized Godwin has an excellent shot to be a key supporting player for fantasy teams during the latter years of his career.

Late (Team Three): Caleb Williams, QB CHI

If investing in a quarterback in a single quarterback format, you want one with a tangible path to become elite. Williams combines a palatable price tag with an immense ceiling. The Bears – all of a sudden – have an excellent supporting cast and Williams should provide enough value with his legs to develop into an annual QB1. He makes perfect sense late in this round.

Eighth Round

Early (Team One): Xavier Legette, WR CAR

Xavier Legette is not for everyone, but he is still a first-round receiver with a clear path to targets early and often. Any sort of rookie year breakout will cause his stock to soar, and few in this area provide the potential for such upward mobility.

Mid (Team Two): Tyjae Spears, RB TEN’

While we do not get to see Tyjae Spears as the clear lead back with Tony Pollard in town, we do know he will be heavily involved after a very promising rookie year. Spears caught 52 passes last season and should benefit from what we can assume will be a more pass-friendly offense. We do not need excellence out of our running backs in this build; we just need a tidy floor, and Spears’ skills in the passing game should provide us with such.

Three (Team Three): Jaylen Warren, RB PIT

A darling for the Zero RB crowd, Warren is a natural fit here. He operates in a committee, which obviously suppresses his value, yet he could well push past Najee Harris in total touches this season. An explosive runner who is a big part of the passing game, Warren provides the floor discussed with Spears.

Ninth Round

Early (Team One): MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB

My preference in a Zero RB is to take shots on some running backs whose theoretical upside is high. While MarShawn Lloyd has obstacles in his way, he is a very talented runner who lands with one of the league’s best and youngest offenses. A smash pick here.

Mid (Team Two): Blake Corum, RB LAR

Blake Corum has impressed Sean McVay early, creating a buzz around a relatively high pick who nonetheless is stuck behind 2023 breakout star Kyren Williams. Corum offers immediate contingent value behind Williams and also has a great opportunity to carve out a long-term role in this offense. While the immediate returns are tough to see, Corum checks a lot of boxes when it comes to what we are eyeing with this strategy.

Late (Team Three): Brian Robinson, RB WAS

Whether redraft or dynasty, Robinson is likely to be the apple of many Zero RB drafter’s eye. Robinson was effective if unspectacular in 2023, providing the Commanders with a back capable of getting what was blocked for him as he showed more skill as a receiver than we had previously seen. Despite the presence of Austin Ekeler, Robinson could work as the lead man in Washington and is probably a better player than the fantasy community gives him credit for.

Tenth Round

Early (Team One): Aaron Jones, RB MIN

Despite heading into his age-30 season, Aaron Jones looked anything but washed during Green Bay’s late-season surge. The performance convinced the Vikings to invest in March and Jones now has an excellent opportunity to provide big short-term value, a boon when you are bargain shopping at the position.

Mid (Team Two): James Conner, RB ARI

Lost in a 4-13 season was the performance of James Conner, who was one of the game’s better running backs despite little fanfare. Trey Benson lurks, but he should be a change-of-pace option out of the gates as Conner handles what should be close to a three-down role. Conner is heading into his final years but could be a strong value for an offense we feel is back on the up.

Late (Team Three): Raheem Mostert, RB MIA

Mostert’s 2023 season saved many a team that punted the running back position. His touchdown sorcery is sure to hit a snag in 2024, but he is still a key cog within an explosive offense. Mostert’s style should allow him to age gracefully, giving dynasty managers a potential RB1, at least for a season.

Eleventh Round

Early (Team One): Jaylen Wright, RB MIA

A fit all too obvious it felt destined to never be, Jaylen Wright lands in Miami and gives the Dolphins another track star on turf. While the depth chart is crowded, it should sort itself out by 2025 and neither De’Von Achane nor Raheem Mostert have been the model of health. He is a swing for the fences and an ideal bench player for a Zero RB roster.

Mid (Team Two): Zack Moss, RB CIN

A forgotten man after a lackluster tenure in Buffalo, Zack Moss was reborn in Indianapolis. He ran tough and did all the little things that endear a running back to a coaching staff. The Bengals noticed, handing Moss a nice chunk of change in free agency. While Chase Brown is the more explosive player, Moss’ reliability should allow him to see significant work in one of the league’s best offenses.

Late (Team Three): Dontayvion Wicks, WR GB

Just one of the many intriguing players in Green Bay’s wide receiver room, Dontayvion Wicks had a strong rookie year and established himself as a dynasty darling despite depth chart blues. Each Packer receiver could post a big season if there is any attrition via injury and Wicks has the tools to be a long-term starter attached to Jordan Love.

Twelfth Round

Early (Team One): Jerome Ford, RB CLE

A second-year back who posts over 1,000 total yards would normally have more hype, yet Jerome Ford is still available in Round 12 despite a clear avenue to touches in 2024. He provides the potential for immediate returns given Nick Chubb’s road to recovery, and should be part of this Browns backfield for the final two years of his rookie deal.

Mid (Team Two): Ben Sinnott, TE WAS

Team two waited on tight end, making the investment into Ben Sinnott a logical one. He was a strong prospect who received day two draft capital and could start for the Commanders from day one. It would be of little surprise if Sinnott quickly establishes himself as a dynasty TE1, making him a strong option in Round 12.

Late (Team Three): Devin Singletary, RB NYG

Zero RB often leads to a meat-and-potatoes approach at running back, and few runners are as meat and potatoes as Devin Singletary. He does everything adequately, yet few things explosively. Of course, he has a clear path to touches in New York and always piles up reasonable numbers at the end of the year even if it is not pretty. He is quality depth who could easily hit the starting lineup on many fantasy rosters.