The 2024 Perfect Startup Draft: Superflex Fake Punt

Over the span of the next few weeks, we’re going to be bringing you our 2024 versions of the “Perfect Draft.” Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:

• Win Now
• Value
• Balanced
• Productive Struggle
• Fake Punt
• Bully QB/TE
• Robust RB

Today, we’ll continue the series with an analysis of a superflex draft using Ryan McDowell’s “Fake Punt” strategy. With this strategy, we start out building our team similar to a “productive struggle” strategy. In that strategy, we’re focusing on young, ascending players, especially at the wide receiver position. But, as we hit the middle and the end of the draft, we start targeting some win-now veteran players.

There’s a real balance to this. You have to be willing to take some lumps with some risks but you’re also putting yourself in a position to be competitive. Let’s be honest. Tanking any season and building a team with nothing but unproven rookies and young players is hard and frankly, kind of boring. This strategy allows you to build for the future but also compete as soon as year one. In essence, I believe this strategy is one of the best at building a team from day one that looks like a roster you’d have after five or six years – well balanced and competitive for the long haul.

Using July Superflex ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.

First Round

Early (Team One): Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

Young quarterbacks are going to fly off the board in this format and it’s hard to argue against the value Hurts has brought to the table during his career. He’s loaded with an embarrassment of riches on offense and looks like a “set it and forget it” option for years to come.

Mid (Team Two): CJ Stroud, QB HOU

Wow. What a debut for Stroud! Even better, he gets Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon added to an offense that was already explosive. Stroud is young, mature and has shown he can perform at an elite level – perfect to build around at the start of a roster construction.

Late (Team Three): Jordan Love, QB GB

Speaking of sparking debuts, how about Jordan Love’s first year as the starter? Now with a new contract that makes him one of the highest paid players at the position, Love is locked into QB1 status and an easy choice late in round of one of a new 2QB startup.

Second Round

Early (Team Three): Caleb Williams, QB CHI

Let’s keep the train rolling with Williams here. A team with Love and Williams to start a new league with is likely locked and loaded at the position for the long haul. Williams has a lot to prove in the NFL but I can’t remember a rookie quarterback more set up for success with the weapons around him than Williams.

Mid (Team Two): Jayden Daniels, QB WAS

There is clearly some risk with taking Daniels in round two but quarterbacks are going to fly off the board and this strategy has us taking some risks early and often. He’s a high ceiling option who would pair nicely with Stroud. Should he hit his potential, you could be the envy of the league.

Late (Team One): Trevor Lawrence, QB JAX

In some regards, Lawrence has been a bit of a disappointment. However, when you’re deemed as the “next big thing,” anything other than total dominance is going to be scrutinized. He fits nicely here and could be a value as the QB14. Yep, when you consider 13 other quarterbacks could be off the board here, this isn’t bad at all.

Third Round

Early (Team One): Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

With quarterback now safely secured, we can focus on positional players. Wilson is poised for a massive breakout now that Aaron Rodgers is healthy. The fact he put up any kind of production at all with the mess at quarterback the Jets have rolled out recently is flat-out amazing. If that’s his floor, I’ll take it.

Mid (Team Two): Malik Nabers, WR NYG

Nabers is about as sure as you can get for a rookie and getting him in the third round seems to be a logical direction for a team using this strategy of targeting massive youth early on. Daniel Jones may not be the answer but Nabers looks like a dynasty staple in the making.

Late (Team Three): Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

I’m a little surprised to see Waddle still on the board late in round three but this team won’t complain. Sure, he’s the WR2 on his own team but that won’t last forever and his new contract all but ensures the Dolphins will find even more ways to get him the ball.

Fourth Round

Early (Team Three): Drake Maye, QB NE

And now we can really secure quarterback for team three with Maye. There are questions about the team around him but Maye looks the part. Even better, this dynasty team can let him sit for a year since they already have two starters. If he hits, he’s a great trade chip down the road as well.

Mid (Team Two): Rome Odunze, WR CHI

We keep targeting young players and Odunze fits the bill. Keenan Allen won’t be around forever and even though DJ Moore is the alpha, Odunze is a solid dynasty option moving forward.

Late (Team One): JJ McCarthy, QB MIN

This team can shore up quarterback as well – the most important position in this format. McCarthy, like Maye, is likely going to sit for a while. However, our roster construction allows us to take a shot here.

Fifth Round

Early (Team One): Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR

It’s time to look at some younger position players and Brooks is staring us straight in the face. If he was healthy right now, he’d easily be gone a round or two earlier. Since we’re going to focus on some short-term veterans later in the draft, we can afford to wait and see on Brooks.

Mid (Team Two): Brock Bowers, TE LV

Bowers seems like a logical pick to make here as we’re focusing on youth. He could very well be the next big thing at tight end and while I personally think he may be overvalued, I have a hard time believing he’s a bad selection at this point.

Late (Team Three): Kenneth Walker, RB SEA

Here’s another solid pickup in round five. With Pete Carroll and his running back carousel finally out of the way, it’s time for Walker to shine. I have a feeling the days of getting him this late in a draft will be over after this season.

Sixth Round

Early (Team Three): Xavier Worthy, WR KC

Since we targeted quarterback early, it’s time for one more shot at a young player and we shoot for the moon here. If Worthy works out, this provides massive value. If he doesn’t, we should be able to pick up some veteran receivers to make “a miss” something more palatable.

Mid (Team Two): Jordan Addison, WR MIN

Addison clearly has some legal troubles and we have to hope those are behind him. If there wasn’t concern around his behavior, there’s just no way he’s still here in round six. Again, much like Worthy, we can take a chance on a young player knowing we may not have to rely on him early if he’s suspended or can withstand the loss if he can’t get his off-the-field transgressions fixed.

Late (Team One): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA

JSN was one of the bigger disappointments last season but he’s having a stellar camp, by all reports. As we pivot to the next phase of our draft, he seems like a worthy young player to take and hopefully build around.

Seventh Round

Early (Team One): Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

Wait. What!?! I thought we were focusing on youth? Well, that’s the beauty of this strategy. The expectation is we now have a solid 5-6 players to build around so we can start adding some “win now” pieces to help us not only compete later but compete now as well. Kupp looks to be healthy and while he has a lot of company with Puka Nacua in tow, he’s still a solid player to add.

Mid (Team Two): Alvin Kamara, RB NO

He may not be the player he once was but getting a bona fide RB1 in round seven is hard to pass on.

Late (Team Three): Mike Evans WR TB

Well, at least we know we can expect a 1,000-yard season, right!?!

Eighth Round

Early (Team Three): Diontae Johnson, WR CAR

We continue to hit the veteran barrel and find Johnson sitting here. Adam Thielen (another great target later in this draft) is still going to soak up some targets but the Panthers want their passing game to revolve around Johnson as well. He seems like a solid “win now” value and a player young enough to contribute for a while as well.

Mid (Team Two): Derrick Henry, RB BAL

Henry is the perfect player to add with this strategy. Sure, he’s on the back forty of his career but he’s still a battering ram and an easy player to plug into your lineup each and every week, especially now that he’s on an offense that will want to run the ball like crazy and one that will actually have the lead a lot as well.

Late (Team One): George Kittle, TE SF

Finding a veteran tight end who you can start every week this late in the draft is a luxury. While other teams are taking chances on rookies who are likely going to flame out, we continue to add proven production for a well-balanced team.

Ninth Round

Early (Team One): David Montgomery, RB DET

And here comes the run on veteran running backs. While we know Jahmyr Gibbs is more explosive, I believe there’s simply more value in Montgomery, who had 13 touchdowns last season. When you consider there will have been around 100 players taken prior to this pick, this seems easy.

Mid (Team Two): Joe Mixon, RB HOU

His best days may be behind him as well but it’s hard to look at Mixon in Houston and believe he’s not going to give you RB2 numbers with RB1 weekly upside at least for a season. He’s a perfect complement to a roster full of young players.

Late (Team Three): Najee Harris, RB PIT

He’s clearly never going to be the player many expected him to be and is battling Jaylen Warren for playing time but he’s a veteran runner who finished last season well. He’s also built for the weather in Pittsburgh and makes for a pretty easy value here late in the draft.

Tenth Round

Early (Team Three): David Njoku, TE CLE

This team needs a tight end and Njoku is perfect for this strategy. He should be solid for the next few years and this team can focus on finding a younger player at the position later on down the road. Njoku had some crazy games last year and while that can’t be expected this season, he’s still a solid option.

Mid (Team Two): Geno Smith

Grabbing Geno for this team makes sense if Jayden Daniels fails to impress. Regardless. this team now has three quarterbacks to cover bye weeks and play matchups with. While Smith isn’t an elite option, he’s a clear value all the way down here in round ten.

Late (Team One): James Conner, RB ARI

Conner has been left for dead for about three years now and all he does is produce. It would be great to have Trey Benson on this roster as well to cover for an injury but even if Conner has an exact replica of his season from last year, this is a great value pick in round ten.

11th Round

Early (Team One): Raheem Mostert, RB MIA

All he does is score touchdowns. While expecting 18 (!) again this season is ridiculous, Mostert can go bananas in any week and few players have that kind of upside way down here in round 11.

Mid (Team Two): Aaron Jones, RB MIN

Speaking of upside, here we have Jones. While this could be a quick burn for him in Minnesota, he’s a solid option for a team that didn’t load up on running backs early. This is a perfect pick for someone who used the fake punt strategy and proof it can honestly work.

Late (Team Three): DeAndre Hopkins, WR TEN

Yes, he’s hurt. Yes, he’s old. However, I’ve learned to never underestimate him because he still has an insane amount of talent. You can’t get many WR1s on their own team this late and while Calvin Ridley is a great player, he’s still not Hopkins.

12th Round

Early (Team Three): Nick Chubb, RB CLE

Check, please. I’m on record saying the dirt being thrown on Nick Chubb is premature. If I’m right, this is a home run.

Mid (Team Two): Adonai Mitchell, IND

You don’t have to take ALL veterans late in the draft and Mitchell happened to be here for this team, who could still use another receiver. Since we’re so well-balanced, a best player available approach is easy to use here.

Late (Team One): Rashid Shaheed, WR NO

Ditto here with Shaheed, who just got a new deal and looks to be a bigger part of the offense this season.

Here’s how it ended up. Each team has a solid corps of youthful players but could also compete to win this season. This is a draft strategy that has some risk to it but can be clearly used to your advantage as well.

Team One

QB Jalen Hurts
QB Trevor Lawrence
QB JJ McCarthy
RB Jonathan Brooks
RB David Montgomery
RB James Conner
RB Raheem Mostert
WR Garrett Wilson
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Rashid Shaheed
TE George Kittle

Team Two

QB CJ Stroud
QB Jayden Daniels
QB Geno Smith
RB Alvin Kamara
RB Aaron Jones
RB Joe Mixon
RB Derrick Henry
WR Malik Nabers
WR Rome Odunze
WR Jordan Addison
WR Adonai Mitchell
TE Brock Bowers

Team Three

QB Jordan Love
QB Caleb Williams
QB Drake Maye
RB Kenneth Walker
RB Najee Harris
RB Nick Chubb
WR Mike Evans
WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR Diontae Johnson
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR Xavier Worthy
TE David Njoku