Ambiguous Backfield Breakdowns: Los Angeles Chargers
Welcome to the Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown series. In this article series, I examine a handful of NFL backfields that have sparked conversations in the fantasy football world and go through each player and their outlooks for this season.
This week, the focus will be on the Los Angeles Chargers, featuring Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins and Kimani Vidal. New head coach Jim Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman have a history of implementing run-heavy schemes into their offenses, and based on the off-season moves made, that is what these coaches want to do with this Chargers offense.
With no clear-cut starter, the question is, how should fantasy football managers approach this backfield?
JK Dobbins
Dobbins’ career thus far has been held back due to injuries. After an incredibly efficient rookie season in 2020, where he averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 134 attempts, he unfortunately tore his ACL, sidelining him for the entire 2021 season. In 2022, he returned but was different from the player before, not reaching his efficiency from his rookie season. Then, in 2023, after preparing for a bounce-back season, he tore his Achilles. Dobbins was let go by the Ravens and the Chargers picked him up. The question must arise: is he worth acquiring in fantasy?
Dobbins’ ADP is not in a place where you are drafting him to depend on him at all. According to DLF ADP, he is going as the RB59 in superflex start-up drafts, which is barely inside the top 200 overall. When looking at the Dynasty Trade Analyzer tool, his value is around a late third-round rookie pick. The fantasy football world does not value Dobbins very highly, and he is easy to acquire in leagues.
Is his declined cost worth it? His fantasy football outlook for this year is quite intriguing. Based on the history of Achilles injuries and how they impact the running back position, it would be wise to bet against Dobbins. Look at how Cam Akers‘ career has played out since his two unfortunate Achilles tears. He has shown flashes occasionally, even in his latest performance in the Hall of Fame game, but overall, he could have been more relevant. Dobbins’ odds of finding any real success for fantasy, especially this season, seem incredibly slim.
However, at his declined price point, he may be worth acquiring. In his range of drafts, the other options available are players such as Michael Wilson, Malachi Corley, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Elijah Mitchell. These players all have a path to relevance, but none as clear as Dobbins, who, if healthy, could dominate the rush share on a good offense with two coaches who are masterminds in developing a run scheme. Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal could be good players, but neither would likely match the talent of a healthy Dobbins, who, as a rookie, was averaging six yards per carry in a Greg Roman offense in Baltimore.
Gus Edwards
The 13-touchdown man moves from Baltimore to pair up with his former Ravens teammate Dobbins on a two-year, 6.5 million dollar deal with the Chargers. After a successful 2023 season as a Raven, what should fantasy managers expect from him as a Charger?
Unfortunately, he has not had the best of starts with Los Angeles. He suffered an undisclosed injury early in June and was expected at training camp. However, based on the most recent reports, he still needs to appear. Harbaugh has been limited in explaining Edwards’ injury, saying: “He’s working through something” when asked about his status by the media a couple of days ago.
Before camp, I would have told you Edwards will probably lead this team in rush attempts, but this injury not only negatively impacts his chances of developing rapport with his new offense, but it also gives Dobbins and Vidal immense opportunity to showcase their skills and earn more touches during the season.
Edwards is currently valued as the top Chargers running back, drafted at RB44, which puts him at 152 overall on DLF’s ADP tool, and his trade value sits at around a late second-round rookie pick for next season. While that is a low cost, his injury brings up much concern; it would be wise to turn to other options around him and scoop up Vidal or Dobbins a little later. Yes, the potential to lead the team in touches is there, but the injury he’s dealing with significantly hurts his chances.
Kimani Vidal
In his fourth and final college season with Sun Belt, the 5’8″ 215-pound Vidal put up 1,661 rushing yards on the ground, flashed a reliable receiving ability with 18 receptions for 201 yards, and scored 15 touchdowns. The Los Angeles Chargers drafted him in the sixth round, and he now has an opportunity in a questionable backfield to become a relevant fantasy football option.
As a sixth-round rookie, we should not have expected much different, but with his pass-catching talent, he could work his way into a role in the offense if he flashes enough at camp. If Edwards or Dobbins were to underperform or even miss time with injury, Vidal could get thrust into a massive role. Doing well with that opportunity could lead to a tremendous season for him as the year progresses.
Looking at his ADP, he is behind Edwards as the RB45, valued as a late second-round pick for next season. He is a rookie and is significantly younger than Edwards or Dobbins, which makes him an exciting asset in the dynasty. However, I see a more challenging path to volume than with Dobbins or Edwards. So, as a result, while I will take some dart throws at him, he is the one of this group I will likely have the least of due to having the most demanding path but nearly being the most expensive of the three backs in the dynasty.
Conclusion
To conclude, this backfield is incredibly confusing for this year, and any of these three players could lead it. All three backs have odds stacked against them. However, if forced to make a decision, Dobbins would be the player I am drafting the most due to his cost being so cheap compared to Edwards, who is dealing with what seems to be a severe injury, and Vidal, a sixth-round rookie who has not made much noise at camp thus far.
Thank you for reading this article. See you next time!
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown: Cincinnati Bengals - August 24, 2024
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdown: Washington Commanders - August 15, 2024
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdowns: Los Angeles Chargers - August 7, 2024
