2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Overvalued Players, Round One
Executing mock drafts are some of my favorite activities to do in the off-season. Rather than focusing on traditional 10-team or 12-team mock drafts you can find anywhere, I like to bring something different to the table as well. This week, I started a mock draft with a simple concept – choose the player on the board you think is overvalued in terms of their ranking, ADP or overall status within the dynasty community. While these players certainly don’t belong on any kind of “do not draft” list or are even unliked by those who selected them, they could represent players who are simply not deemed as a value where you currently have to select them. In other words, the risk just may not be worth the reward. The rules for this exercise were simple – you can take any player (rookie or veteran) and not worry about format (2QB, 1QB, etc.). Simply choose a player you believe is taken too highly. No participant could make two picks in a row so we could get some variety as well. I asked each person to justify their selection and I’ll add my own commentary as well.
With all that in mind, let’s get to it.
1.01 = Jayden Daniels, QB WAS
Commentary given: Rushing potential is mesmerizing but struggles processing and operating from the pocket and his slighter frame could have a Justin Fields-like trajectory. His inability to avoid sacks despite his physical traits is a massive red flag as well.
My thoughts: I was surprised to see Daniels taken at 1.01 but I can see the logic. There’s a little bit of a “one-hit wonder” factor to him and while his ceiling is very high, he’s simply this year’s Anthony Richardson (more on him in round two as a spoiler alert). I like Daniels but I’m concerned about Washington throwing him into the fire and hoping he can carry the franchise too early. We’ve seen far too many quarterbacks get “David Carr-ed” over the years and Daniels could fit that mold if he’s given too much responsibility early.
1.02 = Sam LaPorta, TE DET
Commentary given: I can’t get on board with him at cost (19th overall) when Trey McBride can be had 14 picks later, Kincaid 26 picks later, and Andrews 27 picks later (based on July 1QB ADP).
My thoughts: Boy, what a breakout we saw from LaPorta, who looks like the next big thing at the position. I wouldn’t have put him on this list but I see the justification here. You can easily get a WR1 and McBride a round or two later and that’s enticing. Anyone who takes LaPorta in a start-up draft must simply be ultra-confident in their ability to play “catch-up” moving on in the draft. This pick is not for the faint of heart, that’s for sure.
1.03 = Travis Etienne, RB JAX
Commentary given: I just don’t see him as the RB6. His numbers last year were inflated by scoring 11 touchdowns but his yards per carry average dropped from 5.1 to just 3.8 last season. The Jags have
stated multiple times they want to ease up on his workload this season and utilize multiple running backs – that’s bad news for a player who had a grand total of TWO 100-yard games last season.
My thoughts: This was my selection, so my thoughts are above. Again, I just see too many red flags to jump on board with Etienne. Of all players who have been offered to me throughout my own dynasty leagues this off-season, his name has been seen the most – that tells me all I need to know about the fear the community has with him moving forward.
1.04 = Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
Commentary given: Solid but not a spectacular prospect. Two tiers down from the elite prospects of recent years. He lands on what is likely a bad offence while also going to miss the early part of the season recovering from an ACL. RB10 feels like an outrageous price to pay.
My thoughts: I agree with this assessment as well. It looks like he’s going to miss the first month of the season and reports are indicating Chuba Hubbard is looking fantastic at camp. Do I believe Hubbard is going to render Brooks useless? Of course not. However, he’s probably good enough to make this into some kind of committee and people are paying workhorse RB prices for Brooks at the moment.
1.05 = CJ Stroud, QB HOU
Commentary given: I love this kid as a player but without the rushing upside, he’ll never pay off his current ADP. I know all about the weapons and the talent, but look back in history at strict pocket passers and you’ll see a need for 40+ TDs to be in that top-three finish, that’s too big of a bet to make for me.
My thoughts: This one may be the most controversial of the entire round. While Etienne has been offered to me the most the off-season, the player most have wanted back from me in my different leagues is Stroud. He would have to repeat last year’s performance to justify the selection you have to use to get him but I wouldn’t count it out. There is clearly a risk here, though. At this point, you’re paying elite-level prices for a player who has one good season.
1.06 = Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
Commentary given: Philly doesn’t throw to running backs and Jalen Hurts is a near lock for double digit rushing touchdowns. He’ll be a solid RB2 that will cost you mid-RB1 prices.
My thoughts: I will admit I am very concerned about Barkley this season. The quarterback sneak is here to stay in Philadelphia and that could take 4-5 scores away from Barkley right away. The Eagles also have an embarrassment of riches on offense and don’t need to rely on him to be the engine to make the team work. The first month of the season is going to be very telling to see just what we can expect from him moving forward and I believe it could be one of the defining stories of the fantasy season.
1.07 = D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Commentary given: Has never produced even a single high end RB2 season yet is being valued as an RB2. On his third team in 3 years. Struggles running between the tackles and his calling card is his receiving ability yet he’s at best the fourth target on his team.
My thoughts: In my 18 years with the site, I’ve been wrong a lot. However, I’ve never been a Swift fan and have felt he’s always been overvalued. In fact, he would have been my top choice on this list each of the past two seasons. He’s talented for certain but I just don’t see him as a player you can feed the ball to enough to justify what has always been a lofty ranking. Things have settled a lot now that he’s on his third team in three years but he’s still not a target for me, either.
1.08 = Nico Collins, WR HOU
Commentary given: I like Nico, just not at current cost. After finishing as WR85, WR76, the Texans finally got their quarterback. It resulted in a WR11 finish. All positive. However, the Texans have added weapons, such as Stefon Diggs, a target hog who gets hangry when not peppered properly. And, Tank Dell is returning. Dell bested Collins in most receiving metrics when they were on the field, including target share, by a small margin. Again, I like Nico but cannot in good faith to my dynasty squads pay the ceiling price when disappointment at cost is more likely the outcome. Collins is the current WR14 in start-up drafts and is likely to fall below that in fantasy finish over the next few seasons. I’ll gladly wait until that price falls before seeking to acquire.
My thoughts: I agree with this one as well. At this point, his lofty ranking is making both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs into bargains. Heck, even John Metchie can be had for next to nothing.
1.09 = Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI
Commentary given: I love me some Maserati Marv but being ranked and drafted as the 7th player overall when he’s never played a down in the NFL is too risky for me. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Puka Nacua and other established young players are going later and there’s just all risk and no reward at his current ADP.
My thoughts: This was mine as well. I do believe Harrison is a “sure thing” and believe he’ll be a WR1 right out of the gate. However, there’s no reward in taking him seventh overall and that’s a pick too valuable to risk on any rookie, in my mind.
1.10 = Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
Commentary given: No production in college, didn’t register a breakout age and plenty of time spent on the trainer’s table. Currently valued ahead of proven veterans such as Cooper Kupp and Amari Cooper and solid assets such as Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson. An easy no click for a player with way more risk than reward.
My thoughts: I’m still not on board the McConkey train and don’t see what everyone else does, either. Still, he has been the best Los Angeles receiver at camp and Justin Herbert needs someone to throw to suddenly. I don’t have any shares of McConkey at this point but I’m intrigued. This is just a tough player for me to evaluate one way or the other.
1.11 = Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
Commentary given: Is being valued as a truly elite TE yet only put together a small stretch of production that coincided with Dawson Knox being injured. He profiles best as a high slot player but so do the Bills best receiver in Samuel, Shakir and Coleman. I like the potential but there’s a lot of risk and with his current price there no allowance for that risk.
My thoughts: I couldn’t have said it better myself. Dynasty managers are ramming this square peg into a round hole and attempting to convince themselves he’s somehow an elite-level player. He may be but we just haven’t seen it for a long stretch. I’ll be passing on lesser players at tight end and focusing on other positions in my drafts.
1.12 = Drake London, WR ATL
Commentary given: Valued on the WR1/2 cusp, London is a player who is poor at separation and below average after the catch – not an ideal recipe for a player many are predicting to become a breakout star. There’s been as many people land on the moon (six) as London has touchdowns in 33 career games. If he’s not used as a big-slot wide receiver he’ll never reach his ceiling, a bet I’m unsure of with Kyle Pitts poised to break out in this tight end friendly scheme.
My thoughts: London is another intriguing player on this list. I don’t know what to think of him, either. However, I lean on him being valued relatively accurately at the moment. The Falcons quarterback situation was a hot mess last year and I just don’t think he had much of a chance so far in his career. This one is going to be interesting.
I’ll be back with round two later this week!
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
- The Dynasty Aftermath: Season Recap - January 7, 2025
- The Dynasty Aftermath: New Year’s Dynasty Resolutions - January 1, 2025
- Lineup Advice: Championship Week - December 28, 2024
