Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Justin Jefferson

When evaluating rookie values after the NFL Draft, we try and keep to the mantra “talent over situation”, or as I call it, the ‘AJ Brown lesson’. In 2019 Brown came into the NFL draft as most evaluators’ top wide receiver. Unfortunately for us all, Brown was drafted by the Tennessee Titans. In superflex rookie drafts, Brown fell to the late first round. We immediately were taught a lesson that even if a situation seems bad, talent can win out.

Taking this a step further, does the same mantra work for non-rookies? Do we hold onto our belief in a player’s talent even if the situation has taken a turn for the worse? Kyle Pitts is a prime example of this. He was a highly-rated prospect. Even though he didn’t quite meet expectations in his rookie year, he still had a very solid season, but then Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder happened. I don’t need to remind anyone what happened last year. While Pitts’ value did take a hit it still held rather strongly with the knowledge that this can’t go on forever.

Let’s take this a step even further. What happens when a superstar finds himself in a much less ideal situation than he has been in? Do we actually lower our value on a stud wide receiver because of the loss of his All-Pro quarterback? I am honestly very curious to go into the DLF Trade Finder and see if losing Kirk Cousins and having to deal with either Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy has had any effect on the trade value of…

Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Jefferson’s ADP has stayed strong, falling from WR1 all the way down to WR2 in July ADP, behind only CeeDee Lamb, with his overall spot just dropping that one spot in overall ADP. Trade value doesn’t always hang in lockstep with ADP so let’s go to the Trade Finder and see what the market for the former WR1 looks like.

16 team, 1QB, .5PPR, start 8.

This is a mixed bag of feelings. In a 16-team league depth is absolutely essential, but when you are only starting eight players you always want the stud. When taking the whole picture into view and the players involved in the trade this feels very easily Jefferson. I am honestly a little surprised at how high Luke Musgrave’s value is. I love Jaylen Waddle and know he will bounce back from his not-stellar season last year and I am sure Zamir White will be startable for this season but if you can move these three pieces for the stud that is Justin Jefferson you should do it.

12 team, superflex, PPR start 10.

Rookie fever feels very real here. Whenever trading away a stud, I want to make sure that at least one piece coming back is solid enough that I know I have at least one piece that won’t bottom out in value. We believe Rome Odunze should be great and those picks have the sky as a ceiling with all the hope that comes along with rookie picks but we have all seen things go differently than we have expected. Even if I plan to blow up my roster and do a complete rebuild this is not the way I would go about it. And even if I was rebuilding and someone offered me Jefferson for that package I would still take it and build my team around Jefferson.

12 team, superflex, ppr, TE premium, start 10.

This one is tugging at my heartstrings. First of all, you usually need to overpay to get the stud in the trade but the package side has more value. Second of all, you usually need to pay a tax when receiving a quarterback but not sending one away but the QB side is more. Then add in my Kyler Murray love and this gets very difficult. Honestly, I think I take the Murray side here. I am a big believer that Murray is a top-tier quarterback and Christian Kirk is a very startable wide receiver. Regardless of the direction of your team, in a superflex league, it always feels nice to have that stud quarterback as the building block for your team.

Justin Jefferson is very good at football. And we have seen him thrive with every level of quarterback play. While Darnold and McCarthy will be a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, I am not worried about Jefferson and his production. Looking at a lot of the trades in the Trade Finder it looks like there are plenty of people out there that might be a little scared and willing to trade him away at a little bit of a discount. Go and see what you can do!