Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
Welcome to the ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ series where each week I’ll be focusing on one position to analyze four players and what we should be doing with them. For this week’s edition we’re back to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey, RB SF – League Dependent
2023 was another stellar year for McCaffrey as he led all running backs in PPR points per game with 24.5, 3.3 PPG higher than the next player. As long as he’s been healthy, McCaffrey has been a cheat code for fantasy players. Few have consistently given an advantage at their position like he has. Headed into his age-28 season, McCaffrey has shown no signs of slowing down but is also at the point where the dynasty community will begin to question the future due to his age. Is he still worth investing in?
The Move – What you’re doing with McCaffrey comes down to if you think you’re a top team in your league or not. If you think you are, then you should want him as no one else projects to have the positional advantage that he does. Hold the shares you have and you can try buying with a young WR like Chris Olave who is close in value according to the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer. If you’re not a top team, sell McCaffrey for that young WR like Jaylen Waddle but try to also get a rookie draft pick added on.
Travis Etienne, RB JAC – Hold
In 2023, his second full season of play, Etienne improved upon what was an already impressive first year of play in 2022 by upping his PPR PPG from 12.1 to 16.6. Specifically, he took on a much larger role, accumulating 340 total opportunities. But, with those increased opportunities came a loss of some efficiency on a touch-to-touch basis though this was made up for in the increased targets and success at the goal line. The Jaguars have spoken about wanting to reduce Etienne’s workload a bit but have made little effort to do so. Will we see a repeat year from him in 2024?
The Move – Everywhere you look, Etienne is being valued properly as he sits just outside the truly elite tier of running backs but he tends to start the next tier. He projects to have a large workload in 2024 and is a talented player but one has to wonder if his decreased efficiency in 2023 will continue with the large workload and if we’ve already seen his best. For that reason, I’m just holding Etienne for the time being. Paying the prices it would cost to acquire a running back who’s not separating himself from the fringe RB1s is not something I’m interested in.
Tyjae Spears, RB TEN – Buy
Spears had an inspiring rookie season in 2023 despite playing behind Derrick Henry. Spears averaged 8.8 PPR PPG despite his backup status on the back of his 14.7% target share and was one of the more efficient running backs in yards per touch. This off-season Henry left for the Ravens but the Titans brought in Tony Pollard on a fairly substantial contract. A backfield of Spears and Pollard is an interesting one as they have similar skill sets. Will Spears be able to earn a larger role than the one he had as a rookie?
The Move – There’s a real possibility Spears outperforms Pollard. Earlier in the off-season before free agency, Spears’ dynasty value got a bit too high and didn’t account for any competition signing to the Titans. But, since Pollard signed, his value has come back down to a point where he has a worthwhile price as a low-end RB2. Send Josh Jacobs or D’Andre Swift for Spears with a rookie pick added on.
Devin Singletary, RB NYG – Buy
Singletary entered the 2023 as Dameon Pierce’s backup but that didn’t last long. Singletary quickly proved to be the more effective running back for the Texans and took over as starting running back in week nine. From that point forward, he averaged 13.4 PPR PPG on 19.6 opportunities per game. This off-season Singletary reunited with his old head coach Brian Daboll with the Giants on a three-year contract worth 16.5 million dollars. With Saquon Barkley leaving the team, Singletary finds himself in line to be the Giants starting running back. How will he fare on the Giants?
The Move – Singletary might be the cheapest RB2 you can find currently. With just rookie converted wide receiver Tyrone Tracy Jr and unimpressive sophomore Eric Gray behind him, Singletary projects to have a large role for the Giants. Just on volume alone, even if the Giants offense is as bad as it projects to be, Singletary can return value for competing teams. The Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer has Singletary worth about a third-round rookie pick, his teammate Wan’Dale Robinson, or Dalton Schultz, all of which I would send for him.
It’s time to start thinking about what your week one lineup will look like. Find the trade that helps you get prepared.
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