2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!
Riser: Chris Godwin, WR
Fantasy, of course, does not always equate to reality. Even given that the Bucs have somewhat of a unique roster – this is a team that not only conquered the NFC South in 2023, but also won their wild card matchup versus the Eagles and gave the Lions a scare the very next week. Yet despite the real-life talent, they don’t have a single player being selected in the first four rounds of DLF’s startup ADP.
Depth Chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
Current Market Value
Godwin may be a perfect example of Tampa Bay’s “reality trumps fantasy” paradigm. Per the current ADP, he is being selected as the WR43 and 76th overall player in the seventh round of startup drafts. In the 2023 season, he did what he seems to do best over the past few years – operate with a shallow aDOT, secure a bunch of receptions but few touchdowns, and surpass 1,000 yards. Incredibly, he had exactly one more yard and one fewer score as compared to his 2022 season, though notably he accrued 21 fewer receptions. All told this led to a finish as the PPR WR29, which was useful if perhaps not terribly exciting.
In terms of the players surrounding him, it’s an unsurprising mix of aging veterans who likely have some production left, but who would also seem to be on the back nine of their respective careers. Truthfully I don’t have any qualms with this cohort, as rational minds could make fine arguments for the pros and cons of every player listed. For owners participating in startup drafts, this is the ADP zone where solid production could be found cheaply.
Future Outlook
Godwin has been good, but he hasn’t been the same player he was with Tom Brady and Jameis Winston under center. With that in mind, it makes me wonder if he’s being unfairly punished by the masses by being forced to stack up against his previous highs.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Given this, it’s reasonable to question his selection as a potential riser. To that, I would provide a direct comparison to his teammate and fellow receiver Mike Evans, who will turn 31 in just a few short weeks.
Finishing the season as the PPR WR7, Evans clearly outperformed Godwin in 2023. But these are highs Godwin has previously reached as well, with a finish as the PPR WR2 in 2019, followed by per-game averages as the WR15 and WR6 in his following two injury-marred seasons. Early training camp reports on the veteran have been positive, which if they translate into the regular season could yield value dividends. If the aging Evans can still hold court as a near-top-50 player despite his age, there’s no reason Godwin can’t rise to the same heights or higher.
Trade Options/Conclusion
Via the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder, a few somewhat recent Godwin trades are identified below.
- Trade #1: This is a pick ‘em to me, and I can understand the allure of Derrick Henry’s upside as a Raven.
- Trade #2: Here again this is reasonable, as a first-round pick in a superflex league format presents additional options as compared to a 1QB setting.
- Trade #3: I’m not a big D’Andre Swift fan, but even given that this seems like a mammoth overpay for the ball carrier.
- Trade #4: I like Khalil Shakir but would easily take Godwin.
- Trade #5: In a 1QB league setting this trade absolutely confounds me. The prior Jordan Love owner must be a huge Penn State fan.
- Trade #6: I would take Godwin over any future second-round pick.
If you believe Godwin will bounce back as I do, now’s the time to strike. It will very clearly depend on your league setting, but if you can get him for less than the equivalent of a future first-round pick I believe you will have done well.
Faller: Mike Evans, WR
To be clear, dynasty ADP is not a zero-sum game. If one player goes up, another does not have to go down. But with a possible Godwin ascension as described above, coupled with Evans’ advancing age, it would not be surprising to see him lose value.
Current Market Value
Resembling something of a backwards Nike Swoosh, Evans’ ADP evolution is largely understandable. As an aging veteran who produces year in and year out (he’s yet to meet a season where he couldn’t accumulate 1,000 yards), he’s seen an age-related decline while still achieving significant startup capital based on his statistical output. Most interestingly though are the final two data points, which represent Evans’ first seasonal value increase since 2017.
While noting there are a couple of other examples just below him in Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce, Evans is still something of a unicorn as the third 30(+)-year old player selected behind receivers Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Selecting him in a startup draft more or less signals an intent to win now, given some of the youth in that ADP region.
Future Outlook
After dipping his toes into the trade waters this off-season, Evans eventually re-signed with the Bucs on a two-year, $52 million deal. With quarterback Baker Mayfield also retained, and given the target tree largely begins and ends with him and Godwin, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assert 2024 will look fairly similar to 2023.
Still, we all understand the eventual endgame. Aging players who produce still remain doubtful to increase in value, with the cohort in the graph above providing a fine representation of this likelihood. While acknowledging owners’ intents may differ as it relates to procuring productive veterans, the fact is dynasty fantasy football will always be kinder to youth.
Trade Options/Conclusion
Once again, let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for trade options involving Evans.
- Trade 1: I suppose this one depends on your thoughts on Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet, but I could see leaning Evans.
- Trade 2: With Shakir largely a throw-in, this deal will likely depend on each team’s likelihood of contention.
- Trade 3: Charbonnet one again! All told I view this as a reasonable deal that will largely depend on where the 2025 first-round pick lands
- Trade 4: I’m probably leaning Evans here again. The draft picks are largely window dressing, and I’m just not convinced Christian Watson will emerge as an alpha pass catcher on a crowded Packers depth chart.
- Trade 5: I’m going with Evans here again, as Calvin Ridley is no spring chicken in his own right.
- Trade 6: This is the best example of beauty being in the eye of the beholder. Evans is the surest thing of the bunch, while Aaron Jones finds himself in new surroundings, and dynasty owners seem to look for any reason to bump down Kyren Williams.
I’m not seeking to be a “milquetoast yes man,” as Ron Swanson would say. I just don’t have strong feelings about any of these deals. While I’m sure examples to the contrary exist, trades involving Evans are likely to be between contending and rebuilding squads.
Longshot: Cade Otton, TE
Path to Relevance
You see the depth chart above, right?
As noted above, Evans and Godwin are fixtures, but there is a vacuum amongst the depth pieces to the point running back Rachaad White had the third-most targets on the team in 2023. Past that, Otton has displayed a reasonable progression during his first two seasons in the league. While Lions phenom Sam LaPorta might assert otherwise, the tight end position is often a slow burn towards fantasy relevance.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The increase was modest, but Otton still put forth better numbers even with the changing of the guard from the venerable Tom Brady to Mayfield. Somewhat importantly his aDOT increased by nearly two yards in 2023, though it wasn’t ultimately reflected in his YPR. He also increased his yards after the catch per reception by 0.6 yards.
Case Against Him
The 2024 Bucs will need to see lightning strike the same place twice. Mayfield easily put forward the best numbers of his meandering career in terms of completions, yards and touchdowns. Much of this was attributed to “quarterback whisperer” Dave Canales, who left the bay to helm divisional rival Carolina. And while we shouldn’t attribute all of Mayfield’s turnaround to Canales, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith was also able to resurrect his career under the now Panthers’ leading man. With little else having changed, this is a worrisome development for the team’s offense as a whole.
Verdict
Statistics courtesy of FFToday.
You’re seeing this, right? The tight end position is largely a bucket of yuck, and it doesn’t take a whole heck of a lot to be fantasy viable. Otton was merely the TE20 in 2023, but incredibly that was only 20-ish points outside the PPR TE1 realm. As Otton is being selected as the TE32 and 217th overall player per the current ADP, this makes him a strong if perhaps not screaming buy. I don’t know if it will ultimately translate to fantasy stardom, but his path towards relevance is a bit broader than other longshots chronicled in this space.
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