2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker | Credit: Joe Rondone-Arizona Republic

Tim Riordan Posted On July 29, 2024

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Seattle Seahawks!

Riser: Geno Smith, QB

I have already changed my mind twice about Smith this off-season. I was a big fan of Sam Howell coming out of North Carolina and thought he could push to be the starter. After hearing from camp reports that Howell is underperforming, I am not sure there is a scenario where Smith gets benched this year. Offensive line was a huge issue last year and Smith had some injuries he had to deal with.

Smith did not want to take risks on turnovers and would play too safe last year. It lowered the ceiling of all the positional players. His ADP looks like a rollercoaster ride with a steep decline at the end of 2023. It has been moving back up slightly in the last couple of months but I think Smith’s skillset can fit the new offense under Ryan Grubb. It is a more spread and pass-friendly offense trying to create quicker reads to get more explosive plays.

Current Market Value

Smith’s value is listed as QB28, and that seems too low. In a down year, he finished as QB19. Even if you think a couple of rookie quarterbacks will be better, that will only push him down a couple of spots. I understand rankings and ADP look at more than one season, but he is just removed from a top-six quarterback finish. At Washington, Grubb used formations to allow his receivers to get open for easier looks. Seattle has a talented trio of receivers that should all benefit from this offense that pushes the ball down the field more. On top of that, the effort to throw to the running backs should help him not hold the ball too long when the defense is getting pressure. This scheme change could invigorate Smith’s career and should be a good QB2 on your fantasy teams.

June DLF Dynasty ADP.

Future Outlook

There were high expectations for the Seattle offense after Geno Smith had such a great 2022 season. By the numbers, he only had 10 fewer yards per game and the interception rate went down from 1.9% to 1.8%. The problem was the touchdowns and explosive plays were not there. Reports from training camp are that the offense is running smoothly and Smith is taking more of a leadership role. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should take a bigger role in this offense and can help open up DK Metcalf more. I don’t think we will see another top-six finish but it would not surprise me for him to have a top 16 season. There are too many weapons for Smith not to have a nice floor of QB20 which is much higher than his ADP right now.

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Finder.

I know Smith is getting older and had a down year in 2023 but in SF or two-quarterback leagues, some of these trades are giving him up too cheap. Travis Etienne has been a workhorse back for the Jaguars and could lose a little volume and still be a back-end RB1. I hate not getting a quarterback in the deal, but this is one I think you have to do. In the second trade, I don’t think I would trade Smith. Tyjae Spears looks to be on the climb but with Tony Pollard, it could be a split backfield. On top of that Spears does not have longevity with his issues with his knees coming out of college.

In the third trade, I thought I might do this one, but then the details said it’s a 24-team league. In that case, I could not let a starting QB go without getting another. I like Trey McBride, but it would not make sense for the roster construction. Smith for just the 3.03 draft pick is not nearly enough when you must start two quarterbacks. The last trade is tough for me to say no to because I love Terry McLaurin. It is the same reasoning as the McBride trade. Not getting a quarterback in the deal is just too much and Mike Gesicki could have immediate value this year being with Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

Faller: Kenneth Walker, RB

I have been a big fan of Walker since he stepped on campus at Michigan State for his final college season. He had success in his rookie NFL season, going over 1,000 yards. In his second year, the offensive line did not perform as well, and his numbers decreased but he still finished with over 900 yards and eight touchdowns. I was surprised when the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet. I was not as high on Charbonnet and it seemed like a wasted pick.

Others seemed to be higher on Charbonnet. Walker’s ADP dropped when they drafted Charbonnet and then increased at the beginning of the season but fell again when Charbonnet got more snaps at the end of the season.

Walker was a good fit for the Seattle system under Pete Carroll. He was perfect for the downhill running scheme. Now with Ryan Grubb running the offense, it is more fast-paced, and the running backs will be more involved in the passing game. That was not the case in Carroll’s offenses in Seattle.

Pete Carroll had four different OCs during his 14 seasons in Seattle. Here's a look at where the Seahawks ranked during each of those tenures in terms of targets to running backs:

2010 (Bates): T-14th
2011-17 (Bevell): 30th
2018-20 (Schottenheimer): 27th
2021-23 (Waldron): 30th

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) June 4, 2024

Current Market Value

Walker has finished as RB19 and RB18 in his two seasons in the NFL in PPR scoring. So at first glance, you may think that more passes to running backs should put him higher. I worry that with more of a spread-out offense, Walker may lose touches to Charbonnet, and it could be more of a 50/50 split. There are quite a few wide receivers I would put ahead of Walker, along with Josh Jacobs and James Cook. With the uncertainty of the split, I would not be drafting Walker as a top-12 running back.

June DLF Dynasty ADP.

Future Outlook

There was a narrative that Walker was not a good pass-catching back coming out of college. We have seen that he has gotten the opportunity and has been more than adequate in that with over 25 catches both years in the league. The new system will get Walker more targets, especially in the screen game, but I think he is most effective running between the tackles. So he may improve to be higher ranked at running back but I don’t think he will have the volume to reach the RB12 value. If it is a 50/50 split, Walker and Charbonnet are both in RB2 territory.

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Trade Option/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at possible Walker trades in superflex and two quarterback leagues.

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Finder.

There are some big names in the trades we find for Walker. For the first trade, I would keep Walker paired with Caleb Williams. I don’t think the 1.14 is enough with CeeDee Lamb to make up for a premier quarterback prospect in an SF league.

The second trade seems pretty fair and I would take the side of Jonathan Taylor/Amon-Ra St. Brown/Trey McBride. I think Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver, but I trust Jared Goff right now more than Minnesota’s situation at quarterback. Taylor will get most of the carries and you are getting younger with McBride over Mark Andrews.

The third trade I would not do even though you most likely get the shot at either Marvin Harrison Jr, Caleb Williams, or Jayden Daniels. Harrison can turn into an elite receiver, but giving up both Seattle running backs along with two first-round picks is too costly.

In the last trade, I would decide the package is enough to give up Walker. The draft picks don’t mean much to me there. You are receiving the better situation at running back, with Saquon Barkley and a younger player in Michael Pittman. I am not sure Pittman will ever be a top-12 wide receiver, but he is a top-end WR2. You can improve your team immediately while getting a young receiver to build on for the future.

Longshot: Kenny McIntosh, RB

Path to Relevance

The offense with Ryan Grubb should allow for some opportunities for Mcintosh to show off his skill set. The team wants to pass the ball more to their running backs and Mcintosh was good out of the backfield at Georgia.

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

If there is an injury, I could see Mcintosh being utilized like a James White type from New England. That would put him in immediate flex territory for 2024. The Seahawks want a faster-paced offense and Mcintosh’s elusiveness fits into that scheme very well. The change from a more downhill running team should provide more opportunities for Mcintosh.

Case Against Him

Mcintosh will get opportunities this year in this new offense, but will it be enough to be fantasy-relevant? He would need Walker or Charbonnet to have some injuries to make an impact.

Verdict

Coming out of Georgia I liked Mcintosh, but he continued to fall on draft day and did not go to a great situation for playing time. Walker was entrenched as the starter and drafted Charbonnet in the second round. I think Mcintosh has skills that fit this offense well, especially catching the ball out of the backfield. The problem is that being third on the depth chart will make it hard to carve out a consistent role. I think he will make plays but be more important to the team’s success than any fantasy relevancy.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.