Dynasty Trending Observations: Diontae Johnson, Kadarius Toney and Dalton Kincaid
Training camps are open across the league which means roster moves will start ramping up. While not as thrilling as draft season for dynasty leaguers, it’s still a happy time of year. Below are this week’s more notable developments that could alter your dynasty rosters.
Johnson Sense
"As we build our offense, we really try to feature someone.
And for us right now, 'where is Diontae Johnson at?'"
– Dave Canales pic.twitter.com/s5fbolhbCi
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) July 24, 2024
For those dynasty managers who have held on to Diontae Johnson his entire career, they’ve truly ridden a roller coaster. Drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Johnson had a respectable rookie season (by third-round pick standards), totaling 59 receptions for 680 yards. He then ascended to the title of Pittsburgh’s top receiver with 88 receptions for 923 yards before finally reaching Pro Bowl status in his third year with 107 receptions for 1,161 yards and a top-12 fantasy finish.
Johnson’s quarterback during this three-year run was veteran Ben Roethlisberger. But Roethlisberger retired before Johnson’s fourth season and the difference was very apparent. Even though Johnson led the team in targets in 2022 with 147, he failed to top 900 yards and famously didn’t score a touchdown that year. Then last year, between the continued lack of a viable quarterback and the emergence of second-year receiver George Pickens, the wheels really fell off. Between injuries and falling behind the rest of the offense, Johnson finished with just 51 receptions and 717 yards in 13 games for his worst fantasy season since his rookie year.
Needless to say, a change of scenery was needed for both Johnson and the Steelers. And if the post above is any indication, a bounce back is coming.
Dynasty Impact: The fact that Johnson’s dynasty value is at a four-year low is certainly an issue. However, being the top target on a team – any team – should mean his value will increase.
Take last year’s Panthers team. First-year quarterback Bryce Young had one of the least inspiring rookie seasons but all that did was force the Panthers to bring in quarterback whisperer Dave Canales as head coach. Canales turned around another former first-overall pick’s career (Baker Mayfield) and is hoping to do it again in Carolina.
Even if you kept last year’s offense as a baseline, their top receiver – Adam Thielen – totaled 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and was a solid WR3 for fantasy teams. If Johnson just does that, it would boost his current dynasty value and make him a target if you’re in need of some receiver depth.
Lost Kincaid
Great Bills beat writer @JoeBuscaglia on TE5 & top-50 pick Dalton Kincaid: pic.twitter.com/RiiWlTNeZS
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) July 25, 2024
The expectations were always going to be high for Dalton Kincaid. The first tight end taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since Kyle Pitts also landed in one of the best situations for a rookie pass catcher, teaming up with quarterback Josh Allen. And on paper, it wasn’t a bad rookie season. Kincaid turned 73 receptions into 673 yards and two touchdowns to finish as a top-15 fantasy tight end.
But Kincaid was fighting off veteran starter Dawson Knox for targets all year. Kincaid saw a reprieve for about a month when Knox went down with an injury – and, not surprisingly, had his best four-week stretch of the season – but Knox came back and ate into Kincaid’s target share.
Heading into the 2024 season, the Bills are lacking pass catchers after letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency and trading away Stefon Diggs. They’ll be running it back with both Knox and Kincaid at tight end just to ensure they have enough people to catch the ball. That will lead to another small timeshare where Kincaid doesn’t have the job completely to himself, as evidenced in the post above. So how do we assess his dynasty value?
Dynasty Impact: While it is a bit disconcerting that the Bills have kept Knox around, it may be better for Kincaid in the long run. Entering the draft, there were concerns about his age and injury history so a rookie season where he didn’t go all out is not a bad thing. And despite the targets Knox saw, Kincaid was still productive, albeit maybe not what would be expected of a first-round pick.
Currently, our eighth-ranked tight end is in that spot, and that feels right. The players ahead of him have a much clearer path to targets this season. He’s also right in the middle when it comes to the different ages of the top-eight tight ends.
Most importantly, quarterback Allen isn’t going anywhere. Kincaid will be tied to him as long as he’s as Bill which will be at least the next couple of seasons. Don’t let training camp reports like the one above scare you from treating him as a top-ten tight-end asset.
Toney Up
Something noteworthy: Kadarius Toney is getting plenty of repetitions with the projected starters.
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) July 26, 2024
Kadarius Toney dynasty managers have seen a lot in their brief time with him on their team, from being a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to being traded less than two years later to now being a two-time Super Bowl champion. But this latest version may be the best yet, at least for fantasy football purposes. It’s been nothing but positive developments for Toney in camp this year. From getting reps at running back to the post above about playing with the starters it looks like, at long last, Toney might see regular playing time. And not on just any team with any quarterback but the greatest signal-caller of this generation in Patrick Mahomes. But that can make things tricky when assessing his dynasty value. To go from being worthless (from a fantasy football perspective) to seeing touches on a high-powered offense is rare.
Dynasty Impact: From a dynasty standpoint, Toney’s value has never been lower.
It got there after years of promised touches that never materialized. And while there are no guarantees that’ll change, Toney seeing this kind of attention early in camp is notable. Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Toney could be had for super cheap. If your rosters are deep enough, he’d be worth a later-round rookie pick flyer or as a throw-in to a bigger deal.
