2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Philadelphia Eagles

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks!

Let’s jump into the Philadelphia Eagles!

Riser: AJ Brown, WR

The Eagles are one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the NFL, so their fantasy-relevant players are already very expensive in dynasty leagues. With that being said, Brown’s ADP is still too low, despite being a top-ten pick. I expect him to join the elite tier of dynasty wide receivers this season.

Current Market Value

AJ Brown’s July DLF Dynasty ADP.

Brown is the number ten player overall in dynasty startup drafts and the seventh wide receiver off the board. He’s being selected after the elite four receivers, as well as Marvin Harrison Jr and Puka Nacua. He’s also being selected after several running backs in startup drafts.

Brown’s DLF Quarterback Rankings.

You don’t often see such an early pick have this much of a discrepancy between the ADP and the rankings. The DLF Expert Rankings have Brown ranked in the top five and before any other positions are selected. This is the tier of wide receivers Brown belongs in, and this is where he should be drafted in one-quarterback leagues.

Future Outlook

Brown’s 2023 game log from the DLF Gamelog App

Brown had a dominant start to the season, finishing as a top 12 wide receiver every week from week three through the week 10 bye week. After the bye, the Eagles offense took a massive step in the wrong direction. They lost five of their final six games, failing to score 20 points in four of those weeks. As the offense stepped back, so did Brown’s production. He finished as the WR5 with 289.6 PPR points.

The problem with the Eagles offense was the lack of a passing game. D’Andre Swift is not a bellcow back and he struggled with the volume the Eagles needed to give him. This year, with Saquon Barkley in the backfield, the Eagles offense should take another step forward.

Brown is a throwback wide receiver. He’s a bully out there who uses his size and strength to get the ball. DeVonta Smith is a great wide receiver, but he just isn’t the same as Brown, and Brown will always be the WR1 of this pair. Even with a great WR2 last season, Brown was sixth in the league in first-read target share at 46.6%, per Fantasy Points Data. Smith was 31st among qualifiers at 25.6%. Brown was also sixth in team receiving yards share (35.8%) and eighth in target share (27.4%). Brown is the alpha receiver in this offense, and should be drafted like he is one, despite the presence of Smith.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at possible Brown trades in superflex and two quarterback leagues.

Recent Brown trades in Superflex Dynasty Leagues from the DLF Trade Finder App.

Of course, Brown is not a cheap asset to acquire in dynasty fantasy football leagues, but compared to some of his peers, he is a good value. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb will all fetch a higher price tag. Looking at the trades above, it seems like it isn’t difficult to spend a first-round pick, plus a bit extra on acquiring Brown. Of course, this is a superflex league, so the draft picks are a bit more valuable than in one QB leagues, but 1.14 and Jaylen Warren for AJ Brown is an absolute steal.

Brown is being drafted extremely early in dynasty fantasy football leagues, but he is still underrated. He should be considered in the top tier of dynasty wide receivers with Lamb, Chase and Jefferson, but he’s clearly valued a tier below them. At only 27 years old, he has plenty of fantasy football production ahead of him in his career.

Faller: Dallas Goedert, TE

Goedert has already spent six years in the NFL, and he has been nothing short of a disappointment. Even with Zach Ertz finally on another team, Goedert has never had a single-digit finish in the year-end tight end scoring rankings. He’s been held to only three touchdowns in three of the last four seasons and has struggled to stay on the field for a full season. He’s going into a contract year with Philadelphia, and may end up in a much worse situation for 2025 and beyond.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

Goedert’s July DLF Dynasty ADP.

He’s being selected as the 13th tight end off the board as the 113th overall pick in dynasty startup drafts. He’s being selected after David Njoku and Jake Ferguson. Pat Freirmuth and Cole Kmet are the next in his position to be selected.

Goedert’s DLF Expert Rankings are slightly higher than his ADP. He’s the tenth tight end in the rankings and the 101st player overall. Goedert is being ranked ahead of David Njoku and Evan Engram. George Kittle is the tight end going ahead of Goedert at 90th overall.

Future Outlook

Goedert’s 2023 Fantasy Points scored via the DLF Game Log App.

Goedert just doesn’t do enough on the field to earn the dynasty ADP that he has. His biggest problem is his inability to score. Tight ends typically need to get into the end zone to have top 12 fantasy weeks. Looking back at last season, Goedert was a top-12 fantasy tight end for four weeks. Three of those weeks were weeks where he caught a touchdown. Last year, he was 20th among tight ends in touchdowns, and 23rd in end zone targets with three each. In fact, on his own team, Goedert was tied for fourth with Julio Jones in end zone targets. Without touchdowns, Goedert does not have the upside to be worth a top-12 pick in dynasty drafts at his position.

At 29 years old, Goedert is past the peak of his career, and there’s a slew of younger tight ends behind him that could overtake him in ADP as the season goes on. I expect Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet, Luke Musgrave and even Ben Sinnott to be on the rise this season. Any, or all, of them could have a higher ADP than Goedert next season.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Once again, let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for trade options involving Goedert.

Goedert trades in superflex league from the DLF Trade Finder.

There are some steals for teams selling Goedert away in the DLF trade finder. It’s clear that the dynasty public still considers Goedert to be in the upper tier of dynasty tight ends. I’d gladly move him for a player like Christian Watson, unless it’s a tight end premium league. I also like the move to upgrade Goedert into Travis Kelce for a championship run this season.

Dallas Goedert is a perfectly viable starting fantasy tight end for now, especially in PPR and TE-premium leagues. The problem is that he does not catch enough touchdowns. Jalen Hurts is automatic at the goal line, AJ Brown is a mismatch, and now the team has Saquon Barkley to run the ball in with as well. Goedert is going into his contract year, and there hasn’t been much chatter about an extension. He may not go to a favorable offense if he hits the open market next year.

Longshot: Will Shipley, RB

Path to Relevance

Saquon Barkley is going to dominate the backfield touches for this team. He’s a stud who can take over a game with ease. But, he has struggled with injuries all throughout his career. The team loves to use Kenneth Gainwell as a handcuff, but did the Birds draft a replacement for him in the 2024 NFL Draft?

Will Shipley was one of my favorite running back prospects in the NFL draft. He’s explosive, shifty and runs much larger than his frame. While it was a day-three pick, he was still the seventh running back selected in the draft. Gainwell is going into the final year of his contract with Philly. Shipley could be the primary backup for Barkley next year, and could even be this year if he plays well in training camp. Barkley managers will need to pay close attention to who his handcuff will be over the next several weeks.

Case Against Him

No matter who the running back in Philadelphia is, they’re always going to have to deal with Jalen Hurts. He is the best running quarterback in the league, and the best runner in the league in short-yardage situations. At the goal line, he’s automatic, so there may be limited touchdown opportunities.

For Shipley specifically, if Barkley plays a full season in 2024, he’ll struggle to see the field much, if at all. Barkley will be the primary runner while Gainwell will likely be the number two. It’s a possibility that Gainwell will be gone next year, but there’s no guarantee the Eagles won’t replace him with someone else. They spent very little draft capital on Shipley, so he’ll have to earn every opportunity he gets.

Verdict

Will Shipley is a fine back-of-the-roster stash in most dynasty leagues. He’s very cheap, with an ADP of just 198 overall, 64th amongst running backs. There’s no guarantee that he’ll come through, but I believe that if he gets an opportunity, he will shine with it.