Dynasty GAAP Memo: Polarizing Dynasty Players
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate polarizing dynasty players that have a disconnect between social bias and data bias.
Background
This memo will try to explore a unique intersection of biology, business, and dynasty fantasy football. Bear with me, as I promise this is going somewhere. Below I introduce a few elements of brain biology and project that upon cognitive bias that occur in business. Then I apply that sentiment to polarizing players in dynasty.
To begin, let us jump into a short biology lesson and consider the human brain as a structure. You might remember the sentiment of a left and right hemisphere of your brain from sixth grade biology. To summarize this premise, the right hemisphere of your brain focuses more on creativity, intuition, feelings, etc. while the left hemisphere is more logic-based and focuses on facts, analysis and reason. Throughout the day, you will use both hemispheres in tandem to make decisions and various choices. This decision-making ability is one of the many cognitive abilities of the brain. Oddly enough, any time we draft a rookie, trade for a player, or work through start-sit decisions, both hemispheres are used. This memo will explore this premise, which I have coined the ‘dynasty cognitive theory’. Below, we will discuss how the left and right brain might differ and cognitive biases that could cause market inefficiencies.
First, let’s discuss the more intuitive hemisphere to business and dynasty. The left focuses on logic and reason. The premise is there are hundreds of data points for a business and dynasty manager to consider with a lot of strong correlations to success. The best businessmen in the world stress the importance of making “data-driven decisions”. A lot of your league mates will take a similar approach to dynasty. However, this ignores a cognitive theory called data bias. Data bias refers to data that is incomplete or inaccurate. These limitations then do not paint an accurate picture of the population the data is supposed to represent. In dynasty, this is the risk that something is not quantifiable and therefore not factored into a player’s value. For this exercise, let’s call this the “analytic metric”.
Next, the right side of the brain focuses more on emotions like intuition and feelings. Often good businesses and dynasty managers find success by “trusting their gut” or “go get your guys”. There are other factors at play here as well. For instance, Twitter/X is an echo chamber of player hype videos, training camp news, or analyst opinions that could influence decisions as well as overall player perception. Social bias can evoke positive or negative emotions. We define social bias as discrimination for, or against, a person or group, or a set of ideas or beliefs. Social bias often involves consciously or unconsciously stereotyping others (or in dynasty, players). One of my league mates coined this a player’s overall “vibe”. Depending upon the latest news, vibes could be up or down and this could affect a player’s dynasty value. In the discussion below, I will call this a “Vibe Check”.
This memo will explore certain players that have disconnect between their “analytic metrics” and “vibe checks”.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups.
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web.
Analysis
To begin this analysis, I judgmentally identified players where there might be a disconnect between a player’s “analytic metrics” and “vibe check”. Please see the players selected below:
Rashee Rice (DLF WR28)
Analytic Metric:
During his rookie season, Rice was one of the biggest analytical marvels in the NFL. His 2.49 yards of target separation was third highest in the NFL, his 2.52 yards per route run were tenth in the NFL, and his 654 yards after the catch were the third highest in the NFL. This was all after not obtaining major snaps until week seven of the NFL season.
Vibe Check:
Since the Chiefs Super Bowl (extremely high vibes), it’s been all terrible vibes since. During the off-season, Rice was involved in a car accident while racing. As a result, Rice is facing eight criminal charges for the incident, including one count of aggravated assault, one count of collision involving serious bodily injury and six counts of collision involving injury. He also was involved in an altercation with a photographer at a nightclub. As a result, most expect a multiple-game suspension. I’ve seen estimates ranging from a handful of games to eight or more.
Conclusion: Analytics!
This might be my Chiefs homerism (and right brain), but I’m still a believer in Rice’s talent. It is sounding increasingly likely that the suspension might not be during the 2024 season. The NFL almost always waits for the legal process to be finalized before revealing suspensions and his case is scheduled for late 2024 after the season is underway. After which, Rice will still only be 25 and have two seasons to establish himself (and hopefully stay out of trouble) with Patrick Mahomes.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DLF WR26)
Analytic Metric:
Last rookie draft season, Smith-Njigba was going off the board as a top-three rookie pick. This was based upon his 99th percentile agility score and elite college production. Specifically, his sophomore season where he put up 95 catches, 1,606 yards, and nine TDs at Ohio State. This agility was evident during his rookie season. He had 2.32 yards of target separation (sixth in the NFL) and was deployed in the slot 433 times (ninth in the NFL). A gentle reminder that slot snaps are generally good for fantasy scoring and more efficient than outside.
Vibe Check:
With all the hype coming into his rookie season, Smith-Njigba’s 63 receptions for 628 yards and four TDs left a lot to be desired and some owners might be souring on the young receiver. Additionally, Tyler Lockett is still on the roster for target competition and Geno Smith is seen as a negative at quarterback. There is some hope with the hiring of Ryan Grubb, who may be more pass-happy in 2024. Overall, Smith-Njigba’s ADP has fallen from 24 to 53 when comparing July 2023 to July 2024, respectively. This clearly illustrates that vibes are down.
Conclusion: Analytics!
Overall, I believe in Smith-Njigba still. He still surpassed the 600-yard mark for rookie receivers and Tyler Lockett’s age cliff is coming (going to be 32 in September). I bet on the talent and new scheme to grant Smith-Njigba more opportunities.
George Kittle (DLF TE9)
Analytic Metric:
Kittle finished as PPR TE5 in 2023 with 65 receptions for 1,020 yards and 6 TDs. He also had 2.3 yards per route run (first for TEs), 11.3 yards per target (first for TEs), 483 yards after catch (third for TEs). He is just a stud.
Vibe Check:
Vibes couldn’t be higher. Kittle is one of the most beloved personalities in the NFL and is fresh off being featured in Netflix’s “Receiver”. Also, with the news of Brandon Aiyuk potentially being traded, that’ll just open more opportunities for Stone Cold Kittle
Conclusion: Yes!
The only downside of Kittle is his age of 30. However, we see tight ends produce well into their 30s. He is one of my biggest buys (if I already didn’t have close to 90% ownership).
Tank Dell (DLF WR23) and Nico Collins (DLF WR21)
Analytic Metric:
Fantasy metrics love Tank Dell. He is one of a handful of rookie WRs to average 15 points per game in PPR. He is in the Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua hemisphere from a fantasy points perspective.
Comparably, football efficiencies analytics love Nico Collins. He had 3.24 yards per route run (second in NFL) and 549 yards after the catch (sixth in NFL).
Vibe Check:
For Dell and Collins, vibes should be up. However, Stefon Diggs crashed the party. Diggs is a perennial WR1 who has demanded > 140 targets over the last several seasons. The last team to have three 1,000-yard receivers was the 2008 Arizona Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald (1,431), Anquan Boldin, (1,038), and Steve Breaston (1,006). Before that, it was the 2004 Indianapolis Colts and the 1995 Atlanta Falcons. Can CJ Stroud support all three receivers?
Additionally, Dell also has size concerns and Collins had a potential flukey third-year breakout.
Conclusion: Analytics!
To me, Digg’s age is the tiebreaker. One of the three will likely bust for 2024. However, I’m betting on Stroud long-term, and I believe Collins (25) and Dell (24) are the long-term assets as they are both under contract for at least three more years. Remember that we play dynasty over a long time and Diggs is on a one-year deal.
Kyren Williams (DLF RB10)
Analytic Metric:
Williams was one of the most unforeseen breakouts of 2023. He was a fifth-round NFL draft pick in the 2022 draft. Then barely played in 2022 and had only 35 attempts for 139 yards and nine receptions for 76 yards. He is undersized at 5’ 9” and 194 lbs. and had exceptionally low workout metrics (30th percentile 40-yard dash, ninth percentile speed score).
He was electric in 2023 and very efficient on his way to a PPR RB7 finish. This was fueled by his 83.9% snap share (#1 for RBs). His profile screams outliner due to athletic testing and low draft capital. Reminder Phillip Lindsay’s rookie season of 1,278 all-purpose yards in his rookie season?
Note: Before you blast me in the comments, keep reading!
Vibe Check:
Williams struggled with injuries during his featured role in 2023. This led the Rams to draft Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Corum has better workout metrics and draft capital. Oh, then all the profile stuff above.
Conclusion: Football Player!
Williams does not care about analytics or vibes; he is just a great football player! I just loved what I saw and think a step back in snap share could help him stay healthier and have more explosive plays. I glanced over the RB7 PPR finish above, but that was in 12 games! Imagine if he does the standard 60% snaps for 17. That’s likely an RB1 finish. Go get yourself some Williams if people are skeptical.
Conclusion
Overall, the “dynasty cognitive theory” is a great tool for you to leverage. If you see a narrative in the dynasty community, always try to see an opposing viewpoint and play devil’s advocate. This is the best way to avoid bias and find buying opportunities as they arise. Meaning, if your league is going right, you might have luck going left and vice versa. It’s also a wonderful way to evaluate and derive trades.
“Golf is a game that is played on a five-inch course – the distance between your ears.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Running Back Maturity Approach and Second-Year RBs - February 20, 2025
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Buying The WR Dip Or Falling Knife? - November 14, 2024
