The 2024 Perfect Dynasty Draft: 1QB Value

Tim Riordan Posted On July 24, 2024

Over the span of the next few weeks, we’re going to be bringing you our 2024 versions of the “Perfect Draft.” Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:

Win Now
Value
Balanced
Productive Struggle
Fake Punt
Bully QB/TE
Robust RB

Today, we’ll continue the series with an analysis of a 1QB draft looking for value. In 1QB leagues, this is very likely the way to go. Go ahead and draft the best players available, ignore positions for the most part, and plan to flip players leading up to the start of the season. Inevitably, these teams are going to be very wide receiver-heavy. WR has the most value in dynasty leagues. We can let the other managers in the league worry about filling up their wide receiver spots, while we go ahead and dominate the wide receiver position.

We’re going to look at three different areas of the draft to demonstrate how to execute this strategy from anywhere in the draft order. Early is defined as picks one to four, middle as picks five to eight, and late as picks nine through 12. Many start-up draft picks are bound to be traded and every draft format is a little different but this will give you an idea of who you can target throughout the draft.

Using July ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.

First Round

Early (Team One) : Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Whether it’s CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown, you can’t go wrong with these top four picks. Jefferson is my favorite of the group. He’s been the most consistently elite of the group, even though he missed some games last season. JJ McCarthy is a good long-term option at quarterback, and Jefferson is only 25 years old. He’ll get this off to a great start.

Mid (Team Two) : Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI

Harrison is going to have about as much value as any other player in dynasty leagues this season. He will be a target hog in the Cardinals offense right away this season. If you need to move him to boost up your running back group, it should be very easy to move him for a haul.

Late (Team Three) : Puka Nacua, WR LAR

Nacua has become Stafford’s primary target in the passing game. Cooper Kupp performed well when he returned last season, but at his age, he’s a major injury risk, and a risk to retire after this season. Nacua is a great building block for your team after the top receivers are off the board.

Second Round

Early (Team Three) : Chris Olave, WR NO

Olave is another player who is on the rise and the primary target on his team. We have seen flashes of dominance from him, but he hasn’t quite put it all together for an entire season. With Alvin Kamara approaching the end of his time in the NFL, Derek Carr is going to have to lean more on his best receiver. He should be a first-round dynasty pick after this season.

Mid (Team Two): Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

Waddle is an incredible value where he’s going in the middle of the second round. Tyreek Hill has proven to be ageless so far in his time in Miami, but the future of this offense lies with Jaylen Waddle. Pairing him up with Marvin Harrison Jr gives you an elite wide receiver room with two players 25 years old or under.

Late (Team One) : Brandon Aiyuk, SF

This has been the summer of Brandon Aiyuk. He’s dominated the headlines and has recently demanded a trade from the 49ers. You’re getting Aiyuk at the basement of his value right now. If the Niners trade him, he’ll be the number one option on his new team. If he gets signed long-term, then he has a spot in Kyle Shanahan’s offense for years to come. If he stays and doesn’t get a contract, he’ll play out the season pissed off to earn his next contract. No matter what, his value should increase this year.

Third Round

Early (Team One) : Rome Odunze, WR CHI

As I mentioned, the value in startup drafts comes at the wide receiver position, and team one is loading up on the receiver with elite, young talent. Odunze is going later than he should be because of his situation for 2024. It’s assumed that he won’t see the field much as a rookie in Chicago, but that’s ok. Odunze’s draft value will be higher next year than it is this year. This team may need to start focusing on other positions soon, but they have three future WR1s on their team.

Mid (Team Two) : Josh Allen, QB BUF

Allen checks in as our first non-wide receiver in this exercise. He has been the QB1 in all of fantasy for three of the last four seasons, and he was the quarterback two the only other season. He should be a first or second-round pick, even in one quarterback leagues, but he’s devalued because he lost Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs this off-season. Even with the lost weapons, he can get it done with his legs and Keon Coleman will get to grow alongside him.

Late (Team Three) : George Pickens, WR PIT

Pickens is primed to have a huge breakout season in Pittsburgh this season. There is nowhere else for this passing game to go now that Diontae Johnson is gone. Russell Wilson has shown that he likes to zero in on a lead receiver, just like he did with Courtland Sutton last year. Team three has an elite, young wide receiver room with Pickens, Nacua and Olave.

Fourth Round

Early (Team Three) : Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR

Team three takes another young, ascending asset with Brooks to kick off the fourth round. Brooks will start off slow, while he recovers from his torn ACL. In fact, it may take him until his second year before he gets his explosiveness back, but that will give the rest of this offense time to develop around him. Brooks is a fine pick here in the fourth round.

Mid (Team Two) : Tee Higgins, WR

Higgins is in an extremely similar situation to Brandon Aiyuk, but he’s going two rounds later. Higgins will play this year under the franchise tag, but his situation in Cincinnati is the same as we’ve always seen. He’s one of the best number two wide receivers in the league. After this year, he’ll be the number one on whatever team he goes to. His value is on the rise.

Late (Team One) : Brock Bowers, TE LVR

The Raiders spent a first-round pick on one of the best tight end prospects we’ve ever seen this off-season. It certainly wasn’t a need, but now that he’s in Sin City, they will need to take advantage of his skill set. Bowers and Davante Adams will pair up to be the offense this season, but Bowers is the future. Look out for him once this team finally figures out their quarterback.

Fifth Round

Early (Team One) : Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

Team one goes back-to-back on generational talents at tight ends, cornering the market on the position. It certainly isn’t the biggest need on this team, since they haven’t brought in a running back yet, but one of these players will be a pick that can be moved after the draft. Someone will strike out on the position, and that’s a team that you can take advantage of in trade talks.

Mid (Team Two) : James Cook, RB BUF

Team two is going to stack up some Buffalo skill players with Cook and Josh Allen. In the short term, the Bills are going to need to lean on the run more than ever before. They brought in Ray Davis, but Cook is the lead dog and the first option in the passing game.

Late (Team Three) : Christian Watson, WR GB

Watson needs to prove that he can stay healthy this year, or this was a waste of a fifth-round pick. When Watson played with Love this past season, he was elite. Jayden Reed is available on the board here, but when they were both on the field, Watson was the guy.

Sixth Round

Early (Team Three) : Anthony Richardson, QB IND

Team three gets their quarterback in the sixth round in Richardson. He has the potential to change the game at his position for fantasy football. With this draft pick, team three will need to be sure to target a second quarterback earlier than usual, but Richardson is an absolute stud.

Mid (Team Two) : Trey Benson, RB ARI

Team two is now totally bought into the Cardinals offense with Harrison and Benson. This won’t be a pick for 2024, but if this team starts to compete this season, Benson will be a valuable player that can be traded off for a win-now piece. Either way, I believe he’ll have a decent opportunity to succeed with James Conner this season, and take over this backfield in 2025.

Late (Team One) : Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE

Team one finally takes their first running back with one of my favorite running back values in dynasty. He will dominate the Patriots backfield this season, even with the acquisition of Antonio Gibson. He signed an extension this off-season and, once Drake Maye gets established, he should be an even better player.

Seventh Round

Early (Team One): Kyler Murray, QB ARI

I love this pick for team one. The Cardinals loaded up with talent around Murray this season, and the offensive line has really turned it around. The Cardinals could be one of the fantasy surprises of the season, and Murray is the centerpiece of the rebuild

Mid (Team Two) : Derrick Henry, RB BAL

This team doesn’t have a tight end yet, but this is a value draft and the best value on the board right now is Henry. Baltimore is a perfect landing spot for the King. He’ll pair up with Lamar Jackson in the backfield for an electric RPO tandem. He should have two good years left in him in Charm City.

Late (Team Three) : Joe Mixon, RB HOU

Mixon is another aging veteran who could be in line for one of his best seasons ever with a new team. The Texans are talking up Dameon Pierce, but he proved to be a horrible scheme fit for Bobby Slowik’s zone run scheme. The Texans are loaded and should have a great season this year with Mixon running the rock.

Eighth Round

Early (Team Three) : Ricky Pearsall, WR SF

This team needs a tight end, but that’s not where the value is right now. Instead, use this eighth-round pick to take a first-round rookie who will see his value increase the second he gets a role in this offense. If Aiyuk does get traded, his value will skyrocket.

Mid (Team Two) : Tyjae Spears, RB TEN

Team two took Henry last round, and then his replacement in the eighth round. Spears flashed last year in this backfield, and showed that he can handle a ton of volume in his time in Tulane. The team brought in Tony Pollard, but after his atrocious season last year, Spears should be the leader of this backfield.

Late (Team One) : MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB

Lloyd is a pick for the future, but one that should see his value increase this season in dynasty. New reports out of Green Bay are that Lloyd will have a role in his rookie year. Matt LaFleur has always preferred to use multiple running backs, so he should split time with Josh Jacobs this season.

Ninth Round

Early (Team One) : Keenan Allen, WR CHI

This is a perfect pick for team one after they selected Odunze earlier in this draft. Now, they have the 2024 value in Allen, and the future value with Odunze. Allen is still a PPR machine who can take over a game with his possession routes.

Mid (Team Two) : Jake Ferguson, TE DAL

This isn’t the best value pick, but this team is loaded with talent and doesn’t have a tight end yet. After Ferguson, the position plummets, so they can’t ignore it any longer.

Late (Team Three) : Blake Corum, RB LAR

Team three needs a tight end as well, but the value on Corum is outstanding here. Corum is a more talented running back than Kyren Williams is, and Sean McVay has shown that he’s willing to make a change at the position if the backup is playing better. Corum could take over this position in the next two years.

Tenth Round

Early (Team Three): Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

Team three decides to wait another round at tight end and take a backup quarterback in the 10th. After they took Richardson earlier, they needed a solid quarterback behind Richardson in case there is an injury. As an added bonus, they’re buying low on Lawrence here. If he starts to look like a number one overall pick, they could easily flip Lawrence for a tight end later.

Mid (Team Two) : Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE

After selecting Harrison, Waddle and Higgins with their first three picks, team two abandoned the position until now. Polk will need time to develop and grow with Drake Maye, but he’s a talented receiver and the Patriots used an extremely valuable pick on him.

Late (Team One): Raheem Mostert, RB MIA

If you’re trying to win a fantasy championship in year one, Mostert is an outstanding value in the tenth round of dynasty drafts. Even on this team, with Stevenson and Lloyd already on the roster, Mostert is likely the RB1 to start things out on this roster.

11th Round

Early (Team One) : Jermaine Burton, WR CIN

Burton is a high-upside pick who won’t do much for you in 2024. With Higgins still on the Bengals, he’ll be a deep threat on three-receiver sets. But, in 2025, Higgins will be on another team and Burton will have the first opportunity to fill his shoes. There are some off-the-field issues with Burton, so he’ll need to stay on the straight and narrow to see his value increase this year.

Mid (Team Two) : Dontayvion Wicks, WR GB

Wicks has been the talk of fantasy Twitter recently, as many people believe he’s primed for a breakout season with the Packers this year. He’s in a loaded wide receiver room, but he was outstanding last season when he got opportunities.

Late (Team Three): Luke Musgrave, TE GB

Team three finally addresses tight end with Musgrave, my favorite tight end prospect from the 2023 draft class. He missed a ton of time with injuries last season, a problem that carried over from his college days.

12th Round

Early (Team Three): Ben Sinnott, TE WAS

Team three double-taps tight end to help fill a hole on their team. Once again, it’s a young, ascending tight end who the Commanders targeted early in the draft. Sinnott may play behind Zach Ertz for year one, but he should overtake him at some point this season.

Mid (Team Two) : Josh Palmer, WR LAC

For some reason, Palmer’s ADP is slightly lower than Quentin Johnston’s. Team two decides to leave Johnston on the board and take the true WR1 for the Chargers in year one. It will not take much for Palmer to outdo this ADP in 2024.

Late (Team One) : Marvin Mims, WR DEN

Mims’ rookie season was so incredibly underwhelming. He proved that he can be an explosive weapon in the offense, but for some reason he just didn’t see enough of the field. With Jerry Jeudy gone, Mims should see the field a bit more this year and could be a high-upside pickup this late in drafts.

Team One

WR Justin Jefferson

WR Brandon Aiyuk

WR Rome Odunze

TE Brock Bowers

TE Kyle Pitts

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

QB Kyler Murray

RB MarShawn Lloyd

WR Keenan Allen

RB Raheem Mostert

WR Jermaine Burton

WR Marvin Mims

Team Two

WR Marvin Harrison Jr

WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Josh Allen

WR Tee Higgins

RB James Cook

RB Trey Benson

RB Derrick Henry

RB Tyjae Spears

TE Jake Ferguson

WR Ja’Lynn Polk

WR Dontayvion Wicks

WR Josh Palmer

Team Three

WR Puka Nacua

WR Chris Olave

WR George Pickens

RB Jonathon Brooks

WR Christian Watson

QB Anthony Richardson

RB Joe Mixon

WR Ricky Pearsall

RB Blake Corum

QB Trevor Lawrence

TE Luke Musgrave

TE Ben Sinnott

Author
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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.