Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Which Third-Year Player to Trade?

Jameson Williams | Syndication: Detroit Free Press

Eric Hardter Posted On July 23, 2024

Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).

With the inception of training camps, this marks the end of the “no football” portion of the off-season. And truth be told, given the range of activities and milestones occurring over the past several months, this one has been fairly drama-free. Sure, we’re still waiting to see what will happen with disgruntled 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk, but otherwise we’ve seen peak serenity.

As dynasty owners, we’ll take it! The other shoe is always ready to drop, and unfortunately it won’t be long before we’re scrambling due to injuries or other unforeseen occurrences. So despite it being minor in magnitude, this is a victory I’m sure we’re all willing to take.

Let’s get to it!

From the Old-School Webform…

Which Third-Year to Clear?

On a contending team in a 10-team, half-PPR league, I need to clear a roster spot and am considering trading one of the following players – Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Khalil Shakir or Greg Dulcich. What would you be looking for in return for one of these pass catchers? – Dominik in Switzerland

When it comes to each of these players, and particularly for a contending team in a 10-team league, it’s likely you’re not counting on 2024 production fueling a potential playoff run. So as we’re dealing with bench depth pieces, the name of the game is maximizing possible upside. This may ultimately take the form of the question “Of these players, who is likeliest to produce moving forward?”

The other side of this coin is maximizing value. None of these players is going to be a robust piece of trade bait, as Williams is the only one being selected within the top 100 players per the current DLF dynasty ADP. Still, this doesn’t mean there’s nowhere to go but up, and it may be a case of needing to sell while the selling is good.

A few Mailbags ago I did something of a truncated SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis between receivers Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith. In order to answer this question, I’d like to perform a similar exercise.

Jahan Dotson, WR WAS

Strengths: Translated an elite college dominator and target share into immediate rookie-year viability, where he showed an ability to win deep (14.9 YPR) and score the ball (seven touchdowns). Great, if not elite speed, and robust route participation including a sizeable slot share.
Weaknesses: Pretty much the totality of the 2023 season, which saw diminished returns despite additional targets. He’s on the smaller side and does not possess a massive catch radius.
Opportunities: The depth chart more or less begins and ends with receiver Terry McLaurin. Dotson should be in line to function as the #2 pass catcher, and his first-round draft capital should afford him the benefit of the doubt. Quarterback Jayden Daniels was the #2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and should win the starting role over veteran Marcus Mariota, though notably he only eclipsed 3,000 passing yards once in a collegiate season.
Threats: Rookie Luke McCaffrey was selected at the end of the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has a sketchy to-date NFL history.

Jameson Williams, WR DET

Strengths: Blazing speed coupled with an elite collegiate profile including high-end production against the best teams in the country.
Weaknesses: Due both to injury and suspension, NFL production profile is barren through two years. Tall enough at 6’1”, but otherwise small in stature in terms of weight, arm length and hand size.
Opportunities: Williams plays for an upper-echelon offense that provided 61.4 weekly PPR points to its pass catchers. The coaching staff is progressive in nature, often going for it on fourth down and eschewing field goals for touchdowns. Similar to Dotson, first-round draft capital matters.
Threats: He is decidedly behind elite dynasty assets and NFL players Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both proficient in the passing game. He has yet to participate in much more than 50% of the team’s routes.

Khalil Shakir, WR BUF

Strengths: Best 2023 production of this quartet, and showed improvement between his rookie and second-year seasons on top of an immaculate collegiate profile. He has decent size and good speed, and has also functioned as the team’s top slot option.
Weaknesses: Poor fifth-round NFL Draft capital could linger as a differentiator between Shakir and his more highly drafted teammates. He is likely pigeonholed to the slot receiver position given his Tyrannosaurus Rex-esque 29-inch arms.
Opportunities: Likely the best of the bunch here, as Shakir is on one of the most fluid pass-catching depth charts in the NFL, while being coupled with one of its best quarterbacks in Josh Allen. Off-season deportations Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave behind 241 targets.
Threats: It is assumed sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid will take the reins as the team’s top option. Rookie Keon Coleman received early second-round NFL draft capital, and veteran Curtis Samuel was signed to reasonable free agent money.

Greg Dulcich, TE DEN

Strengths: Above average athleticism paired with strong collegiate production and reasonable third-round draft capital. Strong rookie season returns with an aggregate 33-411-2 line in only 10 games.
Weaknesses: Missed the majority of his second NFL season, running a mere 18 routes across two games. Smaller profile with a lack of strength.
Opportunities: Following the trade of receiver Jerry Jeudy, there are a number of targets up for grabs behind veteran Courtland Sutton. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix was a first-round selection who put up video game numbers in college.
Threats: Dulcich was a holdover from the previous regime, and may be the #2 tight end on the depth chart behind former and now current Sean Payton selection Adam Trautman. Young receivers Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin are also picks by the current decision makers.

Given the totality of the above, and acknowledging there’s some subjectivity in this assessment, I’d rank the players’ likelihood of 2024 (and beyond) success as follows:

Jahan Dotson
Khalil Shakir
Jameson Williams
Greg Dulcich

Dotson seems to have the most security on his current depth chart, with only McLaurin ahead of him. If Daniels has even a reasonable rookie season, and Dotson is able to regain his rookie year form, he could be a dark horse for flex-level production. We cannot ignore his downturn in 2023, but the team’s offense in general was a dysfunctional mess with Sam Howell under center, playing under a lame duck coach in Ron Rivera. It does take a pair of rose-colored glasses, but if you squint you can probably see a positive outcome.

Shakir could rise to that level, and of all the players listed is the only one on a positive trajectory entering year three. Actions speak louder than words and the Bills brought in direct competition, but they clearly also needed to backfill the players they lost. If Shakir can claim the 2a or 2b spot on the depth chart, playing with an elite signal caller in Allen gives Shakir possibly the highest ceiling of the group.

Williams is a more borderline case, though it’s worth noting he’s received positive marks from his coaching staff this off-season. Being stuck behind two of the NFL’s best young players in St. Brown and LaPorta leaves him a clear #3 on the depth chart, albeit on a great passing offense. Still, Williams offers a deep threat skill missing on the Lions, and he should be able to receive high-quality deep targets. If any of these players was to go nuclear and finish the season as a surprise PPR WR1 or WR2, my bet would be Williams.

Dulcich is probably a few tiers behind the rest of the group. I believe he has the talent, but there are doubts as to whether he’ll see the opportunity. It’s important to note that tight end is the position where chasing upside is perhaps most critical, but that would be the main argument in his favor as there just aren’t really any tangible reasons to anticipate a breakout.

From here, we need to consider each player’s respective market value.

While none of these players will command significant returns in the trade market, Williams seems to be in a tier alone, followed by Dotson and Shakir, with Dulcich well back of the pack. Interestingly both Williams and Shakir are more highly valued per the ADP than per our DLF rankers, with Dotson and Dulcich flip-flopped. For me, I think I’m a bit more bullish on both Williams and Shakir compared to the rankings, but don’t have any major qualms with their ADPs.

Given the totality of the above, for me I’d be looking to offload Williams. This isn’t to say I dislike him, but rather he seems to offer the most glaring discrepancy between ADP and fantasy value. If he puts together the splash plays of which he’s capable then it might look bad in hindsight, but in order for this to happen the Lions will either have to support three upper-tier pass catchers, or St. Brown and/or LaPorta will have to fall off. It’s not impossible, but perhaps improbable.

As you fancy yourself a contender, you might seek a deal like the below. I recognize this doesn’t open up a roster spot, but perhaps a throw-in or draft pick could be added to the mix.

Neither Dotson nor Shakir appear likely to bring in anything more than a third round pick. If you absolutely have to clear space that might need to be the way to go, but I don’t view it as good return. While neither player is assured future viability, they’ve at least shown something in the NFL. Whoever you’re likely to receive in the third round of a rookie draft is going to come with as many or more warts.

So if you’re unable to make a sale for Williams, and don’t feel like you’d receive significant return for either Dotson or Shakir, the choice becomes simple. Trade Dulcich for whatever you can get, and if that fails cut him from your roster. While I wouldn’t refer to him as a “roster clogger” just yet, if back-end bench spots are at a premium then dispassionate decisions must be made. If he winds up breaking out then so be it, none of us can predict the future. But given the information in hand amongst all four of these players, he seems least likely to do so.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.