2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: New Orleans Saints

Kendre Miller | © Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Rob Willette Posted On July 23, 2024

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the New Orleans Saints!

Riser: Kendre Miller, RB

A 2023 third-round pick, we always knew we would need to exercise patience with Miller. He was behind both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams on the depth chart and looked destined for limited work as a rookie. Opportunity turned out to be far from his biggest issue, as he had trouble shaking the injury bug all season. Already behind after tearing his meniscus late in TCU’s brilliant 2022 season, he struggled with a hamstring injury before the season even began. He did manage 14 touches for 79 yards in the season finale against the Falcons, the only extended action he was able to see all season.

Current Market Value

Courtesy of DLF’s ADP History.

After a short-term dip – no doubt due to the influx of rookie options following April’s draft – Miller has crept back up the rankings. While Miller taking over this backfield is a pipe dream at best, Alvin Kamara has never been a true workhorse and figures to cede more touches in his age-29 season. Miller could certainly assume the role we expected Jamaal Williams to see in 2023 given how ineffective Williams was last season.

Future Outlook

The future does not appear to be a notion the Saints are much interested in. They are notorious for kicking cap hits down the line in order to compete now, yet it has been a while since they have truly been contenders. Eventually, you would have to imagine they take their medicine and embrace a youth movement.

Given what we expect from the team in 2024, this could very well occur in the 2025 off-season as the team hits the reset button. Rolling with a 30-year-old Kamara during a rebuild seems unlikely, and opens up the door for a rookie contract player like Miller to make his mark.

Courtesy of Spotrac.

I am certainly no cap maven, but there would seem to be an out with Kamara following the 2024 season with the Saints just having to absorb his dead cap. They could increase Miller’s usage this fall to see what they have and eliminate the wear on Kamara. Miller may be more of a 2025 play, but there are plenty of scenarios where he becomes a fantasy factor this fall.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to locate recent trades involving Miller.

Here, we see Miller go for a second-round selection in two separate deals. The price is reasonable, as Miller possesses plausible long-term upside yet is not going to net a pick any higher than this. He is also included in part of larger deals, the type of player many managers would love to add yet one most will try to hold on the other side if they can.

Miller is an ideal ancillary add if I can nab him. He is attainable and has an excellent shot of seeing his value soar by this time next off-season. His skillset is far more suited for three-down work than most of the other gambles you can take on running backs in this range of drafts and trades.

Faller: Alvin Kamara, RB

Long one of dynasty’s elite assets, Kamara has experienced the fall from grace. It is no fault of his own; Father Time is cruel to all yet saves his most vicious attacks for the NFL running back.

Current Market Value

Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time.

Kamara was a steady force at a position with extreme volatility. We should thank him for his service and appreciate the remarkable consistency (Kamara logged between 81 and 83 receptions for four consecutive seasons between 2017 and 2020, a truly mindboggling stat).

We are seeing signs of decline, however. His efficiency plummeted in 2023 and he saw his lowest snap percentage since his rookie season. In addition, with his own increasing limitations, the Saints have possibly one of the league’s weaker blocking units, and quarterback Derek Carr is not one to elevate an offense on his own. The overall outlook gets bleaker by the day.

Future Outlook

Kamara, at the very least, is not cooked. He can still do damage in the passing game and throughout his career has shown a rare ability to avoid serious hits with his incredible contact balance.

The harsh reality is runners with his combination of age and workload are discarded often, and 2024 could prove his last as a lead runner. Few teams are looking to add a runner whose age is closer to 30 than 20, making it probable Kamara’s stock will be even lower once we hit the 2025 off-season.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s again use the DLF Trade Finder to locate pertinent trades for Kamara.

The first trade highlights the treatment aging running backs often receive in dynasty leagues. The odds of a fourth-round rookie pick paying off are slim to none, and I would happily take the veteran discount here. Kamara for Davante Adams in a one-for-one makes sense depending on team needs, and neither manager needs to be too concerned with the player they moved haunting them for years to come. If people are selling for late-round rookie picks, I will happily add Kamara, but you do so accepting the rewards are only short-term.

Longshot: AT Perry, WR

Path To Relevance

A well-respected prospect who some felt was worthy of a day two selection, Perry fell to round six before the Saints scooped him up at pick 195. The dip created questions as to whether or not Perry would get an extended opportunity, though he was able to earn some reps as he finished the season with 246 yards and four scores, including a 3-53-2 line in the finale against the Falcons.

Chris Olave is the clear top option here and Rashid Shaheed has been an excellent niche player, yet neither has the type of boundary presence Perry does at 6’5” and 205 pounds. The former Wake Forest star has elite length and possesses the willingness to play a physical game, an essential trait if you are looking to complement more finesse receivers such as Olave and Shaheed.

There is a clear opportunity for Perry to be the third option in this passing game, especially with Juwan Johnson on the mend. The team only added Bub Means in round five and Perry should have a huge leg up on him after a year in the system which included valuable game reps. An offense very top-heavy when it comes to talent could use secondary options emerging.

Case Against Him

This offense will funnel looks to Olave and Kamara, and it is fair to ask how much there will be to go around within what looks to be a fairly average offense. Derek Carr can support a good fantasy receiver; how many others can he prop up? Perry could well become a solid real-life player yet not one who makes a fantasy impact, especially if the Saints tilt more to the run game.

Verdict

Perry is a longshot I am more interested in than most. He was a credible prospect whom you could argue was underdrafted. He has had moments at the NFL level. He has a skillset that differs from his more established running mates.

Perry carries an ADP of 220 in July startup ADP, a price I am more than willing to pay given his upside compared to the players surrounding him. Perry has a viable shot, and it is all we can ask for in this bastion of players.