The 2024 Perfect Dynasty Draft: 1QB Win Now
Over the span of the next few weeks, we’re going to be bringing you our 2024 versions of the “Perfect Draft.” Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:
- Win Now
- Value
- Balanced
- Productive Struggle
- Fake Punt
- Bully QB/TE
- Robust RB
We start today with the 1QB win-now version of this series. This is always tricky and high risk as you’re bound to have a lot of lower priced veterans who could end up retiring off your roster eventually. However, if you balance this out with a few younger players, it’s a strategy that can yield immediate results and the object of the game is to win, isn’t it? We’re going to look at three different areas of the draft to demonstrate how to execute this strategy from anywhere in the draft order. Early is defined as picks one to four, middle as picks five to eight, and late as picks nine through 12. Many start-up draft picks are bound to be traded and every draft format is a little different but this will give you an idea of who you can target throughout the draft.
Using July ADP. let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.
First Round
Early (Team One) : CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
There are countless options at the top of the draft but it’s hard to argue against Lamb, who is coming off a career season and looks to be one of the best receivers in the league for the next decade. His last season was dominant and the contract situation doesn’t bother me one bit. Players like this get their money eventually. After all, you don’t let players who catch 135 passes for 1,749 yards and score 12 touchdowns sit on the sideline or play for another team.
Mid (Team Two) : Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
Yes, he’s aging. However, there are few players in fantasy football who can win you a game by themselves and McCaffrey continues to be one of them. There are so few dynasty running backs who are true three-down options and McCaffrey is by far the best of the bunch. Breece Hall is my pick for a younger, long-term option but if I’m wanting to win right away, McCaffrey gives me the best chance to do it.
Late (Team Three) : AJ Brown, WR PHI
If you miss out on players like Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, Brown is a solid pick late in round one. The benefit of having another pick right at the turn is a major benefit as well as you can double up on elite-level talent.
Second Round
Early (Team Three) : Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
He may only have a few years left but Hill is the most explosive receiver in the league and having him on any team keeps you competitive every week. Miami is loaded with talent and Jaylen Waddle may be the future there but Hill is an absolute fantasy monster.
Mid (Team Two): Sam LaPorta, TE DET
It’s rare when someone can help you dominate now at a position and be young enough to build around. However, this is the case with LaPorta, who looks to be the TE1 for a long time moving forward based on his age and production level. Even on a “win-now” team, I’ll take him over anyone else.
Late (Team One) : Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
There is clearly some risk here with Barkley in round two. However, if your goal is to win right now, you have to love the upside he has in Philadelphia. When he’s truly healthy, there may not be a better running back in the league. Jalen Hurts is going to siphon some touchdowns away from him but having the running back in this offense could prove to be very lucrative.
Third Round
Early (Team One) : Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
Mahomes hasn’t had the same kind of fantasy impact as he did early in his career but the Chiefs seem to be loading up on a few more playmakers. Regardless, it’s hard to find any other quarterback who can consistently put up the same kind of numbers on a week-to-week basis.
Mid (Team Two) : Josh Allen, QB BUF
Speaking of elite-level quarterbacks, Allen is another option here in round three. His rushing ability alone keeps him in the truly elite tier of quarterbacks and while there is some legitimate concern about the lack of talent suddenly around him, Allen still has many years left. When you have someone like Mahomes or Allen, you have the luxury to take some dart throws later in the draft as well.
Late (Team Three) : DK Metcalf, WR SEA
If you want to load up on receivers, Metcalf is an easy player to target here in the mid-to-late 30s, overall. He’s a player who is a near sure bet for around 1,000 yards and has a nose for the end zone as well. The new Seattle offense is looking like it will utilize him even more, so this could prove to be a bargain.
Fourth Round
Early (Team Three) : Davante Adams, WR LV
It certainly sounds like Adams is content again in Las Vegas. While last year had some major ups and downs, he still posted a 103/1.144/8 season and remains an elite-level player. If he was six years younger, he’d be a first round pick. If you’re in win-now mode, he’s a solid target here, despite the question marks at quarterback for the Raiders.
Mid (Team Two) : Deebo Samuel, WR SF
If Brandon Aiyuk leaves via trade, Samuel could have a career year. Even if he doesn’t, Brock Purdy has proven to be an NFL-level quarterback and Samuel is one of the best weapons in the league. You just have to feel like his seven touchdowns (a career high last season) aren’t going to be his career best for long. He’s a great pick here as an established veteran who is still young enough to help you in the long-term.
Late (Team One) : Jordan Addison, WR MIN
You can see the run at receiver in this part of the draft and Addison fits here. Yes, there are significant concerns about his off-the-field behavior but those don’t spill out on to the field. Not many rookies can put together a 70/911/10 season but Addison did just that last season. He’s a solid option as your second or third receiver in a dynasty draft.
Fifth Round
Early (Team One) : Rachaad White, RB TB
Yes, the Bucs added Bucky Irving in the draft. However, he doesn’t look like much of an initial threat to White’s playing time. His 990 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns were decent last year but his 64 catches are what made him valuable in dynasty leagues. He makes for a pretty solid selection in round five as a second running back.
Mid (Team Two) : Mike Evans, WR TB
There is consistency, then there is Mike Evans. His NFL-record ten 1,000-yard seasons to start a career remains intact as a 79/1,255/13 campaign proved yet again he’s a dominant performer. He’s 30 years old but makes for an easy target for a team wanting to win their dynasty league in year one.
Late (Team Three) : Travis Kelce, TE KC
Speaking of easy targets, here we have one of the most dominant tight ends in history. While Kelce had his own streak of 1,000-yard seasons snapped at seven (he had 984 yards last year), his playoff run proved he still has a lot left in the tank and he gives anyone a positional advantage with him in the fold.
Sixth Round
Early (Team Three) : Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
Early off-season reports indicate Kupp is fully healthy and looking like his old self. While Puka Nacua isn’t going anywhere, Kupp is a player who is a massive high-upside selection here in round six. If he’s even back to 80% of the player he was, this is an easy pick for a dynasty manager employing this strategy.
Mid (Team Two) : Stefon Diggs, WR HOU
While there is some real concern with the move to Houston, taking Diggs in the sixth round mitigates much of it. Diggs has had streaks where he’s been one of the most dominant receivers in the game and now finds himself in a contract year. For a win now team, this seems like a logical pick.
Late (Team One) : Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
A 79/1,022/4 wasn’t great last year but McLaurin is still just 28 and boasts four straight 1000-yard seasons. If Jayden Daniels hits, he could have a monster bounce-back campaign as well. Perfect situations are gone once you get into round six but he represents a solid investment.
Seventh Round
Early (Team One): George Kittle, TE SF
Again, we trade production for age. Kittle is 30 but coming of a 65/1,020/6 season, which is a monster campaign for a tight end. Instead of dart throws on rookies, a win-now team would love to take a chance on Kittle remaining productive for another 2-3 seasons and hope to trade him later instead of seeing him retire off their roster.Â
Mid (Team Two) : Derrick Henry, RB BAL
The move to Baltimore is an interesting one for Henry, one of the most violent runners the league has ever seen. He’s clearly on the back-end of his career but a team that loads up on other positions first won’t be sad to see him still on the board here in round seven. Lamar Jackson is going to take some rushing scores away from him but Henry is poised for at least one more big year.
Late (Team Three) : D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
This one is interesting. Swift is in dynasty purgatory at the moment. Suddenly playing for his third team in three years, there are questions about his workload. However, the Bears boast a solid receiving corps to keep defenses honest and Chicago is promising to use him in creative ways. No late seventh round pick is perfect but this one seems to make sense.
Eighth Round
Early (Team Three) : Justin Herbert, QB LAC
The loss of Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams is sure to have an impact on Herbert and pushes him down into the eighth round in a lot of drafts. However, we’ve seen him perform at an incredibly high level and while he may have less talent around him, he may also have to throw more as a result. This seems like a perfect spot for him.
Mid (Team Two) : Calvin Ridley, WR TEN
There has been a lot of shade thrown Ridley’s way and he was clearly disappointing at times last year. However, he did post a more than respectable 76/1,016/8 season for the Jaguars. There are questions about Will Levis and just how good he can be but Ridley is still talented and should have several years of production left in him.
Late (Team One) : Zamir White, RB LV
If you want to take a later round stab at a running back who could well outplay his ADP, White is a great player to look at right around here. The Raiders added an unimpressive Alexander Mattison this off-season and could add another veteran down the road. However, White looks the starter on a team that needs to run the ball and he should be a fine addition to any dynasty team, regardless of strategy at this point in a draft.Â
Ninth Round
Early (Team One) : Javonte Williams, WR DET
Even if you’re trying to win immediately, you can’t just completely load up on veterans and ignore value on the board when you see it. Williams has clearly not had the start to his career that he wanted but he’s also a supremely talented player with a long runway to get better. His value is going to either go way up or way down this year and he seems worth the risk here.
Mid (Team Two) : Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
Again, this is the time where you can either add veterans or balance out your team. In this case, we take a hard look at Mitchell, who has flashed early in camp and looks to have a bright future with the Colts. There are a lot of different ways to position yourself with a win-now strategy but rounds 8-10 are my favorite ones to look at adding a young player or two and Mitchell is a solid value choice here.
Late (Team Three) : DeAndre Hopkins, WR TEN
Hopkins certainly fits the mold of a veteran who is starting to fade but one who could also provide some massive value this late in the draft. Much like Ridley, there are questions about the offense he’s in but we’ve also seen there some left in the tank here. Hopkins is still the WR1 on his team and there aren’t many of those you can get in round nine.
Tenth Round
Early (Team Three): Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Yeah, I get it. He had a terrible knee injury. However, Chubb is one player I never count out and if he returns to even 90% of his pre-injury form, this could be a league-winning pick. Sure, he could be out for a big part of the season but all signs point to him coming back sooner rather than later and the tenth round capital represents a solid investment.Â
Mid (Team Two) : James Conner, RB ARI
Yeah, I get it here, too. The Cardinals drafted Trey Benson to eventually replace Conner. The key here is “eventually.” All signs point to Conner carrying the mail for at least one more year in the desert and he played at a RB1 level for stretches last year. If Conner can have a handful of RB1 games next year, this is an easy pick.
Late (Team One): Raheem Mostert, RB MIA
Yeah, I get it one last time. Mostert is on a depth chart that’s even more crowded now. Still, he was an absolute scoring machine last year and a win-now team needs to have some veteran players with upside like this in order to compete. If he’s healthy (and that’s always the issue), Mostert could still be the most valuable running back on a high octane offense.
11th Round
Early (Team One) : Romeo Doubs, WR GB
When you get this late in the draft (past 100), you have to take some dart throws. Doubs has had his ups and downs but Jordan Love looks like the real deal and Doubs could represent a better value than his teammate Christian Watson, who has struggled to stay healthy.
Mid (Team Two) : Zack Moss, RB CIN
Moss has a golden opportunity to truly establish himself as an elite performer this year after signing with the Bengals. To me, he looks like one of the biggest bargains on the board at this point, despite which strategy you may be employing.
Late (Team Three): Dontayvion Wicks, WR GB
There has been a lot of smoke swirling around Wicks and many believe he’s going to have a breakout season. At this point in the draft, you need to take some chances and Wicks has the talent to be a big-time player for the Packers should he keep progressing.
12th Round
Early (Team Three): Kendre Miller, RB NO
Miller really fell off the map after being an afterthought in the offense last year behind Alvin Kamara. Personally, I believe his drop has been too steep. Kamara is a great target for a win-now team and anyone who adds him can look to this area to add Miller and attempt to own more shares of the backfield.Â
Mid (Team Two) : Jerry Jeudy, WR CLE
Jeudy has been largely disappointing in his four years but has a fresh start in Cleveland and still has a tremendous amount of talent. Deshaun Watson may never be the same player he was in Houston but he’s an upgrade over what Jeudy dealt with the past couple of seasons. He could remain a bit of a bust but a pick in the twelfth round is hardly going to ruin your team.
Late (Team One) : Devin Singletary, RB NYG
We end with yet another perfect target for a win-now team. It’s unlikely Singletary is the long-term answer for the Giants but focusing on other positions and using your late round picks for current starters is an easy way to build a solid nucleus for a win-now dynasty team. I would personally look to add Eric Gray later in the draft should I invest in Singletary but this seems like a logical pick late in the draft as most NFL starting running backs are long gone.
Team One
WR CeeDee Lamb
RB Saquon Barkley
QB Patrick Mahomes
WR Jordan Addison
RB Rachaad White
WR Terry McLaurin
TE George Kittle
RB Zamir White
WR Javonte Williams
RB Raheem Mostert
WR Romeo Doubs
RB Devin Singletary
Team Two
RB Christian McCaffrey
TE Sam LaPorta
QB Josh Allen
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Mike Evans
WR Stefon Diggs
RB Derrick Henry
WR Calvin Ridley
WR Adonai Mitchell
RB James Conner
RB Zack Moss
WR Jerry Jeudy
Team Three
WR AJ Brown
WR Tyreek Hill
WR DK Metcalf
WR Davante Adams
TE Travis Kelce
WR Cooper Kupp
RB D’Andre Swift
QB Justin Herbert
WR DeAndre Hopkins
RB Nick Chubb
WR Dontayvion Wicks
RB Kendre Miller
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
