Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: AFC East

After debuting this miniseries a couple of years back, I’m excited to have the opportunity to author the 2024 iteration!

With the NFL draft now months behind us and training camp/preseason just around the corner, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple of months (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF Top-250 rankings;
• The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s continue with the AFC East! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Buffalo Bills

Buy: Khalil Shakir, WR (ADP = 125.2, Rank = 165.4)

“Arbitrage” is an odd word. I could never pronounce it properly, and always went with something closer to “arr-beh-traaj” instead of Webster’s accepted “arr-buh-traazh.” But what I clearly lack in phonetics I think I gain back with understanding, and perhaps more importantly typifying the definition with Shakir.

Former Bill Stefon Diggs was shipped out to Houston and Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars, thereby creating a mammoth target vacuum. But despite his solid close to the 2023 season, which included multiple touchdowns, two 100+ yard games and three games with 6+ receptions, Shakir hasn’t benefited in terms of ADP valuation. Keon Coleman (more on him below) is going to get the buzz given his draft capital, but that’s more than baked into his value – at cost, I’d rather look to the ascending third-year player being selected 70 slots later.

Sell: Keon Coleman, WR (ADP = 56.2, Rank = 83.8)

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

After a torrid start to the year where Coleman appeared primed for a breakout, his pace slowed to a crawl even before quarterback Jordan Travis’ year-ending injury. All told this yielded a three-year collegiate career that was heavy on touchdowns but light on everything else. Though ironically, “light” is not a word to describe Coleman’s NFL Combine measurements where he checked in at a robust 6’3 1/4” and 213 pounds. But while he still managed above-average explosion metrics, he ran a slow 4.61-second 40-yard dash, perhaps reminding Florida State fans of another oversized Seminole in Kelvin Benjamin.

As noted above, draft status will afford the rookie with opportunity. But his ADP has received two artificial bumps due to his situation changing as opposed to his talent, all coming off the back of an unexceptional collegiate career. While he’s not a screaming sell candidate, some caution is warranted.

Hold: Curtis Samuel, WR (ADP = 156.7, Rank = 150.2)

By now you’re likely noticing a theme in this section, which is an attempt to identify who will emerge from the Bills receiving corps. Shakir has the middling value, but also youth and burgeoning talent on his side. Coleman has the youth, stature, and draft capital, which are all coupled with a commensurate dynasty value.

Enter Samuel.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran has been something of a metronome the past five years, compiling between 627 to 851 yards each season excepting an injury-shortened 2021 campaign. Adding to this is the $13.1 million guaranteed on his three-year contract, as well as a pairing with the best quarterback of his career in Josh Allen. It’s not out of the realm of possibility Samuel overtakes both Shakir and Coleman, which makes him (at worst) a fine hold.

Miami Dolphins

Buy: Jaylen Wright, RB (ADP = 123.5, Rank = 167.0)

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel sure has a type, doesn’t he?

Explosive and with blistering speed and adequate size, Wright is the newest addition to Miami’s stable of racehorses. And with 7.4 YPC in his final collegiate season, he also matches his backfield compatriots Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in efficiency. Importantly, and despite continued production, the former is now 32 years old and likely will hit the age wall at some point in the near future. With similar size, though lacking in proven receiving chops, Wright could be the heir apparent as soon as 2025.

Sell: Jonnu Smith, TE (ADP = 211.2, Rank = N/A)

Look, I try to give every candidate his proper due, but this one is pretty simple. Smith is a tight end on the Miami Dolphins, which means he might as well be wearing Harry Potter’s invisibility cloak on the field. Last season tight end compatriot Durham Smythe had a whopping 366 yards, and the year before Mike Gesicki had… 362 yards.

Smith once had some juice as a member of the Tennessee Titans, but that was years ago. But despite lackluster production since he’s still being drafted, which means he appears to carry a modicum of value (or that his immediate family partakes in DLF’s mock drafts). I’d recommend cashing in on it before it evaporates altogether.

Hold: Tua Tagovailoa, QB (ADP = 126.0, Rank = 100.0)

Tua is something of the metaphorical unseasoned dish. He fills you up, but it doesn’t always taste great. To that point, last season he finished as the overall QB9 with 20.9 points per game. Very good, but off of the pace of the elite at the position, as well as his own per-game pace in 2022.

Perhaps this is why he’s viewed as the overall QB16 according to the current DLF ADP, and why (at the time of this writing) he’s yet to be extended. Whether it’s still concern from his scary bout with concussions in 2022, or his seeming tendency to plateau each season and not play well enough when it matters, something is keeping Tagovailoa’s value depressed despite the fact he led the league in passing yards last season. Still young, likely to get a payday somewhere (if not Miami), and outplaying his dynasty value, Tagovailoa is a sensible hold.

New England Patriots

Buy: Demario Douglas, WR (ADP = 153.5, Rank = 157.0)

Last season the Patriots offense cratered, finishing third-last in total yards, fifth-last in passing yards and tied for dead last in points scored. This all occurred with rotating quarterbacks, injuries, and general dysfunction and malaise. All told it was enough to catalyze an exit from GOAT head coach Bill Belichick, and force the team to rebuild through the NFL Draft.

Again, context is important. It’s not the color scheme we want to see, but Douglas’ midyear stretch where he was a top-35 PPR wide receiver four times in five games on that offense was borderline astounding. Putting it into perspective and noting Kendrick Bourne (more on him below) had some great weeks, the best-finishing skill position players on the team were Mac Jones (QB30), Ezekiel Elliott (RB30), Douglas (WR63) and Hunter Henry (TE19). Not ideal.

The additional fluff comes in the form of off-season puffery asserting Douglas is locked in as the team’s top slot option, and perhaps the top option in the passing game altogether. Either Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye should provide an upgrade over Jones and Baily Zappe, immediately raising the floor. If Douglas continues his own progression, this could be the perfect storm for dramatically outplaying his current ADP.

Sell: Antonio Gibson, RB (ADP = 182.8, Rank = 183.6)

As shown in DLF’s Change in Player Value app, Gibson has lost what statisticians refer to as a “metric truckload” of value. I’ve been assured it’s statistically significant. Moving on.

Ostensibly, this was all before Gibson’s backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson was re-signed to a four-year, $36 million contract with $17 million guaranteed. Given this, and the fact that Gibson is essentially just a worse version of Stevenson as a plus-sized ball carrier with pass-catching prowess, it’s hard to get excited. You’ve seen this above with Smith, though perhaps it’s a bit different as his value is next to non-existent, but not all “sell” candidates are those who will command a monster return. Selling low still beats selling lower.

Hold: Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP = 214.2, Rank = 231.8)

Bourne flashed high-end upside on an otherwise broken squad, and even surpassed what Douglas above had shown prior to injury.

All told, Bourne had three top-ten finishes through the season’s first seven weeks. Even when he got hurt in Week 8 he still managed to finish as the PPR WR34, as he was sitting on a 3-36-1 line through 60% of the team’s snaps. If I were to take a liberal projection, I think if he finished out that game we’d be looking at four PPR WR2 finishes or better out of eight contests, proving an ability to dramatically overperform given New England’s overarching backdrop of ineptitude.

The Patriots were clearly okay with his recovery, having signed him to a three-year deal worth $19.5 million, including $7.25 million guaranteed. On the other side of the ledger, they selected receiver Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round of the most recent NFL Draft. But the simple fact is you’re holding (if not buying) a penny stock that has the chance to enter the NASDAQ if the cards fall the right way. These are the type of guys I like to roster at the end of my bench.

New York Jets

Buy: Breece Hall, RB (ADP = 8.8, Rank = 10.8)

Returning after his promising rookie season was cut short by an ACL tear, Hall was initially eased into the backfield, sharing the load with veteran Dalvin Cook. But following a disappointing loss to the Chiefs in week four, where he was held to a measly nine touches, Hall went nuclear.

From week five onward Hall finished within the PPR RB1 tier eight times, including six finishes in the top four. This included seven performances yielding 20+ PPR points, aided by his 76 receptions on the season. Subjectively, Hall and teammate Garrett Wilson were the only players who made the Jets watchable.

I’ve said already that selling low beats selling lower. Naturally, the analogous paradigm when trading for a player is that buying high beats buying higher. So even though Hall is already viewed as the eighth most valuable player per the current DLF ADP, he’s still “only” the RB3. And while we’re assuredly in the splitting hairs range of players, I have him as my overall dynasty RB1, and would not be surprised if he achieves that feat with continued stellar play.

Sell: Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP = 193.0, Rank = 209.4)

To be clear, Rodgers has earned the right to coast by on prior accomplishments and accolades. Likely a member of the Millennial Mt. Rushmore at quarterback, he deserves that benefit of the doubt.

But the simple truth is we haven’t seen him play football since 2022 (I don’t count his four snaps as a Jet), and truthfully we haven’t really seen him play good football since 2021. And while the 2022 Packers had significant turnover and their weakest pass-catching corps in years, the fact is Rodgers was previously viewed as a guy to elevate the talent around him – instead we saw him drop off in nearly every metric, only for understudy Jordan Love to come in the next year and outplay him with some of the same principals.

As the QB26 per the ADP, the future Hall of Famer isn’t commanding significant value, but it’s not nothing either. So if you don’t plan to use him as your starter in a 1QB league, or don’t view him as much of an upgrade on your QB2, there’s an argument to get out while you can. We still don’t know Rodgers’ future plans, but at current there are players in his price range who can likely offer more.

Hold: Mike Williams, WR (ADP = 185.0, Rank = 145.4)

So as not to bury the lede from the image above, I’d much rather have Williams than Rodgers given the choice. Much like his now-teammate, he’s also returning from a major injury, but that’s mostly where the distinction ends – though only in two full games and part of a third, the former Charger was balling out to the tune of an aggregate 19-249-1 line. His 16.7 PPR points per game would have been tenth-best in 2023, and follow his 13.6 PPR points per game in 2022 and 15.3 in 2021.

I’m not sure if it’s concern with his injury or dislike for his landing spot, but after a brief value reclamation through the new year Williams massively tailed off. As compared to another injury-stricken, aging receiver in the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, both the absolute values and changes in value are dramatic. And while I’m not saying Williams possesses Kupp’s skill, I’m surprised by such a divergence.

Williams received a one-year, $10 million contract with $8.3 million guaranteed from New York, suggesting the team believes in his ability to turn it around. When healthy he should immediately step in behind Wilson as the team’s second target in the passing game. As he’ll turn 30 during the season it’s unlikely he’ll regain a ton of value, but I’d hold strong with a wager he’ll reverse the slide.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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