2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Las Vegas Raiders
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Las Vegas Raiders!
Riser: Zamir White, RB
As the 2023 season concluded, many assumed the Raiders would move on from Josh Jacobs. Zamir White had been waiting in the fold and got a chance to take over lead-back duties to close out the season. However, many still expected the Raiders to use an early draft pick on a new lead running back. When they didn’t draft anyone or bring in a significant free agent running back, White was more or less handed the starting gig in Sin City.
Current Market Value
Looking at White’s ADP, you’ll see the dynasty community’s reaction to him based on the Raiders’ personnel decisions. He was slowly trending down, but once the Raiders moved on from Jacobs and failed to draft an early-round rookie, White saw his ADP climb more than 100 spots. Currently a low-end RB2, he is probably being drafted close to his floor, and he could easily outperform his ADP with an outside shot at an RB1 finish.
Future Outlook
Looking at multiple player projections for the 2024 season and averaging them out, White is projected to amass roughly 194 points. A season ago, that would’ve been good enough for RB23. The Raiders are putting all of their trust in him for 2024; if he rewards that trust with a productive campaign, he’ll probably be looking at a contract extension as his current contract ends after 2025. A second contract with the Raiders, locking him in as a starter for another three to four years, should keep White as a top-24 running back through 2027 at least.
Trade Options/Conclusions
Looking at DLF’s Trade Finder tool, White seems to be a value. Considering he is a relatively young starting running back with the potential to be a starter for multiple seasons, that isn’t necessarily reflected in his price in trades. Considering the cost of acquiring him, I would absolutely kick the tires on some trade offers and see if I could add him if I needed an RB2 or a reasonably priced flex option.
Faller: Alexander Mattison, RB
Oof. A year ago, I was trying to accumulate as many Mattison shares as possible. I thought he flashed occasionally as Dalvin Cook’s backup, but when he was given a shot at a starting role, he fell flat on his face, finishing as RB38. He made his way to the Raiders this off-season and judging by his ADP drop, the change in scenery isn’t changing the minds of dynasty owners.
Current Market Value
Heading into last season, Mattison saw his ADP peak at 78.5; however, once the year began, his ADP began to plummet. Now, roughly a year later, his ADP is 237, the lowest it has been in at least 18 months.
Future Outlook
Mattison is trending down with little hope of a rebound. In the four most recent DLF mock drafts, he went undrafted. He would need Zamir White to either sustain another significant injury or flat-out fail terribly to even get an opportunity at a substantial workload. Entering his age-26 season, there is a chance this one-year contract with the Raiders might be the last of his career.
Trade Options/Conclusions
It looks like it’s a wrap on Mattison’s fantasy viability. As you can see in the trades below, his owners are bailing ship for as little as fourth and fifth-round picks. If you can get anything for him at this point, I would pull the trigger and take what I could get.
Longshot: Dylan Laube, RB
Path to Relevance
Courtesy of 4for4’s Depth Charts
Selected with the 32nd pick of the sixth round, rookie Dylan Laube might be in line for a sneaky, productive 2024 season. Looking at the Raiders’ depth chart, there isn’t much standing in Laube’s path to touches. Zamir White is entering the season as a first-time NFL starter, seven years removed from a right ACL tear and six years removed from a left ACL tear. Current No 2 back, Alexander Mattison, is playing on a one-year $2-million deal after playing his way out of Minnesota. Comparing the 49 running backs who tallied at least 90 carries in 2023, Mattison was 33rd in yards after contact and 35th in yards over expected per attempt.
Laube’s college stats courtesy of Yahoo! Sports.
In college, Laube proved himself to be a more than capable pass catcher and should enter the season as the Raiders top option as their change of pace back. He probably doesn’t have 200 carries in him. Still, he should be able to get close to 50 receptions if he is used properly, and he might even become a viable red-zone threat, given his versatility.
Case Against Him
The list of successful 24-year-old rookie sixth-round picks from FCS schools is not very long. White proved himself enough last year in a small window as a starter that the Raiders felt comfortable moving on from Josh Jacobs. Over the final four weeks of the 2023 season, White was RB9 with a full workload. He is a former national high school player of the year and is the product of a Georgia program that has produced multiple NFL-caliber running backs in recent history.
While he flopped as a starter, Alexander Mattison was a more than capable backup running back in the past and will not easily give up that role to Laube. While not insurmountable roadblocks, White and Mattison bring enough to the table that Laube might have some trouble getting on the field as a rookie.
Verdict
A mid-to-late fourth-round rookie pick and pick 200 as RB63 in start-up drafts, Laube seems to be grossly underpriced. So far, he is one of my top-owned rookies, and in PPR leagues, he likely is looking at an RB4 floor with an RB3 ceiling- which both blow his ADP out of the water.
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
