Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tyler Lockett, Gus Edwards and Trading Down
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
In 1998, the Canadian rock band Barenaked Ladies famously stated that it’s been “one week since you looked at me. Cocked your head to the side and said, “’I’m angry.’” Well in just one week’s time we’ll all be able to say this was the last DLF Mailbag prior to the inception of the 2024 NFL Training Camp schedule! Actual football is just around the corner… breathe it in!
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Lockett Up
Which aging asset do you prefer in a 12-team, half-PPR superflex league – Gus Edwards or Tyler Lockett?
Often when it comes to evaluating trades, rationalizations and reconciliations will more or less take the form of a pros and cons list. A classic example is the aging veteran with proven fantasy viability but limited remaining longevity versus the up-and-coming youngster who, if he breaks out, should afford years of production. Well… this ain’t that.
At 31 (32 in September) and 29 years of age, respectively, both Lockett and Edwards are on the back nine of their careers. This is reflected in the current DLF ADP, which sees Locket as the WR66 and 144th player selected, and Edwards just behind as the RB44 and 150th player overall. Unsurprisingly, their trade values are virtually indistinct.
As we all know, dynasty value does not inherently equate to fantasy value. In fact, Lockett and Edwards have been two of the more underrated players in terms of the former, routinely outplaying their dynasty ADP. This has been particularly true with Lockett, who has put forward WR1 viability coupled with a WR2 floor in 2018-2022, though his fantasy performance tailed off in 2023.
Edwards hasn’t been quite as good, but has still been usable as a fantasy asset. Last year he was a high-end RB3, and on a per-game basis, he was actually better than Lockett. His biggest issue has been volume, which he’s been unable to secure in earnest on a Ravens offense predicated on a multi-back system, while sporting the best running quarterback in the NFL.
The hope is that a move to the Chargers, where he’s coupled with former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, will finally yield bell-cow usage. If you believe the recent beat writer reports, which should of course be taken with a glacier of salt, that seems to be the emerging paradigm. This all sounds sensible, as in looking at the team’s current nausea-inducing depth chart, and despite the presence of an above-average quarterback in Justin Herbert, it’s near impossible to get excited about their passing game.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
Correspondingly the anticipation is for a run-heavy game plan, which of course sounds great in theory, and in practice should be aided by an off-season focus on the offensive line. But the other side of this coin is a Chargers defense that was bottom-ten in terms of points against and fifth-worst in yards allowed. If new head coach Jim Harbaugh cannot immediately turn this unit around, the offense may be forced to continue to attempt to air it out.
Conversely, Lockett will be forced to contend with star DK Metcalf and emerging 2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Though quarterback Geno Smith has surprised with his solid play, the 2023 follow-up to his 2022 breakout was middling. But change is also afoot in Seattle, with Mike Macdonald taking the reins from the venerable Pete Carroll and importing Ryan Grubb, who helmed the prolific offense at the University of Washington for the past two years. If Grubb can help improve Smith’s numbers, it’s possible for the offense to support three fantasy receivers, but the path is likely narrower than it is for Edwards.
Lastly is the fantasy scoring setting, which isn’t trifling. The half-PPR format dings Lockett quite a bit more than it does Edwards, who actually becomes relatively more valuable given how little he works in the passing game.
Quantitated for a full PPR format, it’s immediately apparent how much more important receptions are to Lockett, with 39.8% of his 2023 fantasy points accrued in that manner. For Edwards, he only achieved a modest 6.6% of his 2023 fantasy points via the reception, showing that his ceiling would barely be lowered in a half-PPR league. The counterargument is that if the Chargers are unable to score as the Ravens did, Edwards’ 42.6% reliance on touchdowns could be fundamentally altered, and ultimately even out the PPR discrepancy.
So that’s the (largely) unbiased and objective data, which truthfully does very little to differentiate the two players. Given this, the question perhaps gets simplified – what position will help you more? If you’re seemingly weak at receiver and flush at ball carrier, an argument is made for the Lockett side, and conversely for Edwards if the situation is flipped.
In a vacuum I’d probably roll with Edwards as it’s tougher to find fantasy depth at running back as compared to receiver, but I see both sides of the equation. And the simple fact is it’s extraordinarily unlikely one of these two players is going to win your league for you. So short of saying “there’s no wrong answer here,” I view either player as a fine flex and benefit to your overall team depth.
Going Down, Down from an Earlier Round
In a 12-team startup superflex draft, I have pick 1.01. The owner with pick 1.04 wants to trade for my pick, but not involve his first-round pick in return. What would I need to acquire to make this work?
Apparently this is the day of leveraging (and slightly altering) millennial lyrics!
Short of saying “his firstborn,” the ask is going to take a massive toll on his remaining assets. Of course this is a sensible cost in return for a superflex draft starting off with something like Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud.
While I don’t have a direct way of attempting to calculate this, I believe we can achieve a reasonable facsimile using DLF’s Trade Analyzer and DLF’s superflex ADP in conjunction with his remaining early round picks (2.09, 3.04, and 4.09). As Mahomes is currently pick 1.01 per the superflex ADP, we’ll use him as your side of the deal. While other players in the general realm could be used, here again I’ll be fairly strident to the ADP, which has AJ Brown as pick 2.09, Tua Tagovailoa as pick 3.04, and Michael Pittman as pick 4.09.
Off the bat this appears like an overpay, but this is often the case when the team consolidating assets receives the best player in the deal. And notably the best asset on the righthand side is only about two-thirds the value of Mahomes. If nothing else, it’s a good starting point.
Continuing to build this out, I’ve added picks 7.01 and 8.12 (Josh Jacobs and Geno Smith) to your side of the deal, which begins to bridge the divide a bit.
Importantly, these players are being used as surrogates for the picks. And in reality, pick 1.01 itself is about as pristine a prize as can be, as it gives your trade partner the ability to select from a small handful of proven studs at his discretion. This makes it worth significantly more than Mahomes’ value, and likely brings these two sides even closer.
Looking at the other half of the deal, not having your first selection until the end of the second round means you’re already looking at players with warts, and probably knocking yourself out of contention for the entirety of the QB1 tier. And while there exists a universe where a player like Tagovailoa continues to improve and becomes an upper-echelon QB1, the selection more than likely would set your teeth on edge. Still, this would be bolstered by having two picks apiece in rounds two through four, which in addition to the players listed above would provide you with guys like Jahmyr Gibbs and Breece Hall (2.12 and 3.01), and Trey McBride (4.12).
You’d fall off again in the middle rounds of the draft, which is where good picks can win leagues. However, here again players are going to come with red flags, and an alternative viewpoint could yield a view of a startup pick dead zone. There is no one right answer here, and you should think hard about the players likely to be available in these ranges, and how much you like them.
Much as with the first query with Lockett versus Edwards, beauty is going to be in the eye of the beholder. Some readers of this article might think it’s entirely too much to give up for pick 1.01, but it’s important to remember that he’s coming to you with interest, not the other way around. Given this, there’s no reason to not shoot for the moon. As the saying goes, even if you miss you’ll land among the stars.
