Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: AFC South

After debuting this miniseries a couple of years ago, I’m excited to have the opportunity to author the 2024 iteration!

With the NFL draft now months behind us and training camp/preseason just around the corner, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple months (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF Top-250 rankings;
• The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s continue with the AFC South! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Houston Texans

Buy: Cade Stover, TE (ADP = 221.5, Rank = N/A)

With 2024 anticipated to be something of an apprenticeship for Stover, there’s an argument to be made that he’ll still be a “buy” candidate in a year’s time. However I’m of the mindset that as long as your league size is big enough, it’s good to be forward-thinking. Perhaps nowhere is this truer than at the tight end position, when we need to throw as much crap as we possibly can at the wall to hopefully see something stick.

Stover isn’t the biggest player, but he possesses above-average speed and burst, and compiled a fine 41-576-5 line in his final collegiate season (second on the team behind Marvin Harrison Jr). The fourth-round draft capital is middling, as is the current situation behind teammate Dalton Schultz, who was just rewarded with a new contract. But there is an out on Schultz’s contract before the 2026 season, and fellow pass catcher Stefon Diggs (more on him below) could be leaving town after the upcoming season. The caveat again is having enough roster space to accommodate the rookie, but a two-year ascension plan isn’t unreasonable.

Sell: Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP = 56.5, Rank = 59.5)

I’m not sure what to make of Diggs, particularly given his diametrically opposing 2023 season start and finish, as shown below.

There’s no way to sugarcoat this. Following five 100+ yard efforts in six contests, Diggs could only eclipse 70 yards three more times. This included six games under 50 yards, and only two scores from week nine onward. There were clearly issues between Diggs and quarterback Josh Allen, and ostensibly the coaching staff as well, given his off-season trade. But at the end of the day Allen is an elite signal caller, and never had a problem getting Diggs the rock before. And though I love the landing spot in Houston with emerging stud CJ Stroud, Diggs will turn 31 during the season.

This doesn’t mean Diggs can’t turn it around! I just don’t want to be left holding the bag in case he doesn’t, as a current fall to the WR32 by ADP has the potential to go even lower. Particularly if you don’t see yourself contending, it might be a good time to get out.

Hold: Joe Mixon, RB (ADP = 86.7, Rank = 76.7)

There are assuredly similarities between Mixon and Diggs, and I did consider the former as my selection for the “sell” candidate. The erstwhile Bengal will turn 28 later this month, and given the pounding he’s taken with 2,000 NFL touches, there are some city miles on that body.

But the first simple fact is Devin Singletary, one of the most average ball carriers in the NFL, was able to compile 1,100 total yards in 2023. In his career Mixon has shown more proclivity in both the passing game and as a goal-line ball carrier than the now-Giant, potentially asserting there’s some meat left on the bone. And with one of the best groups of pass-catching talent in the NFL, along with a budding superstar quarterback, the running lanes should be open.

The second simple fact is Mixon is being selected 30 picks after Diggs per the DLF ADP. Rational minds may differ, but I view his pathway to tier-one (RB1) production as more straightforward than Diggs’. With neither player guaranteed longevity past this next season given their status as elder statesmen, I’d rather hold Mixon than Diggs at cost.

Indianapolis Colts

Buy: Josh Downs, WR (ADP = 125.8, Rank = 112.3)

In a season that produced several rookie pass catchers with star talent, Downs’ near-800 yards flew a bit under the radar.

My logical suspicion would have been that his current status was more a reflection of the Colts’ selection of rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. And while that led to the crescendo of Downs’ fall, he was already moving in the wrong direction when the calendar flipped to January.

Part of this could be due to teammate Michael Pittman’s new contract, but his most logical outcome always involved sticking around in Indy. As such it really shouldn’t have impacted Downs. Given the potential for the second-year player to still function as the second target on a depth chart lacking proven talent, prospective owners can use the current ADP to their advantage in a potential trade.

Sell: Anthony Richardson, QB (ADP = 59.2, Rank = 66.2)

Last year I also selected Richardson for this space, largely because of the unproven nature of his talent making an odd juxtaposition with an inflated value. And unfortunately the now sophomore was only able to attempt 84 passes last season, and so perhaps not shockingly his ADP…jumped 20 spots!?!

In that short time I actually came around a bit on Richardson’s future viability, provided he can protect himself a bit better on the field. But as the QB6, it’s a very costly investment. To be clear, this isn’t a warning to get out on Richardson at all costs – but rather, and particularly in a 1QB league, there might be better uses of draft and trade capital.

Hold: Jelani Woods, TE (ADP = 210.0, Rank = 246.2)

Last year in this article I had Woods listed as my “buy” candidate, after leading the Colts motley crew of tight ends in most relevant statistics as a rookie. Unfortunately he was unable to even attempt to improve upon those numbers, as a lingering hamstring injury kept him on the shelf all year.

Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.

And yet, as shown by the depth chart above, the Colts appear ready to run it back once again with the same bucket of yuck at the position! A cynic could assert that tight ends simply won’t be a big part of the game plan, but I’ll choose to be optimistic instead. It’s perhaps even likelier that the coaching staff believes they have some hidden talent with Woods, and are happy to have him back healthy. Even if it’s not the case, his value won’t drop much past where it already is, leaving him as a sensible hold.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy: Christian Kirk, WR (ADP = 76.3, Rank = 80.5)

Since moving to Jacksonville and pairing with Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Kirk has seen all his relevant receiving metrics improve. He has averaged an additional 2.0 PPR points per game, and when last fully healthy in 2022 he finished the year as the PPR WR12.

This ceiling becomes more obvious when comparing Kirk’s 2022 and 2023 campaigns. While the latter (the righthand side of the figure) still shows a lot of green, it’s more in the WR2 range, with two WR1 finishes. The floor remained high, but it wasn’t quite the same as his four WR1 efforts and nine instances of finishing as the weekly PPR WR20 or better (lefthand side).

While there was some dogfighting with fellow receiver Calvin Ridley, his departure has left 136 vacated targets. Also gone is Zay Jones, who is now with Kirk’s former team in Arizona. Tight end Evan Engram is still kicking around, but he was there in 2022 as well, when Kirk had his finest fantasy season to date.

I think Kirk is simply one of “those guys” who folks just always seem to find a reason to be lower on. Even now with this rosy outlook, he’s scarcely a WR4 per the current ADP, and his best-ever ADP has barely eclipsed 50.0. It’s possible he’s just not flashy enough, or maybe it’s thought his age cliff might not be too far off – but he’s not there yet, and with his fantasy value likely to outpace his dynasty value, he’s one of the biggest screaming buys.

Sell: Gabe Davis, WR (ADP = 162.8, Rank = 148.7)

And then there’s Davis, whose ADP peak equaled Kirk’s despite a fraction of the production. More gallingly, he offers nothing in terms of consistency and imperils your lineup with his staggering lows, often countering multi-touchdown fantasy blow-up performances with week-losing efforts. To that latter point, Davis incredibly had five zero-yard efforts in 2023, and three more with 21 or fewer yards. As the saying goes, when someone shows you who they are, believe them – Davis has shown us he’s a middling boom-or-bust player who couldn’t make it work with an elite signal caller in Josh Allen (apparently that’s a theme in this article).

It’s also fair to note that his value has fallen commensurately with his status. While he’s not quite waiver wire fodder, he’s being viewed as a 14th-round pick in startup drafts – this is the range where owners are chasing upside and understanding that the risk is already baked in. But as I’ll say here and more than likely again before this series concludes, selling low beats selling lower. And with Davis likely the fourth target at best in the pass-catching hierarchy, it’s easy to see a universe where that happens.

Hold: Evan Engram, TE (ADP = 90.7, Rank = 103.0)

Similar to Kirk, Engram has really taken off since signing with the Jaguars, finishing as the PPR TE2 last season and the TE5 in 2022. And while it’s fair to point out he’ll turn 30 years old just before the season, this is still a player who has accrued 241 targets in two seasons with Jacksonville, and who caught a whopping 114 passes last year. The yards per reception are low and Engram doesn’t score the ball, but that dog will hunt.

Given this it’s rather mystifying that he’s only going off the board as the dynasty TE10 per the ADP. We can certainly explain the presence of many of the younger players in front of him, but there’s a legitimate reality where Engram keeps this pace up for another couple of years, meaning his fantasy value is still going to be upper echelon. If not for Kirk, Engram would probably be my recommendation as a “buy,” but even in absence of that, he makes for a strong hold.

Tennessee Titans

Buy: Tyjae Spears, RB (ADP = 103.5, Rank = 103.5)

Seemingly an ascendant talent, Spears’ ADP has been falling since the Titans’ off-season signing of former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard.

My suspicion is this is due to dynasty footballers expecting a lead role given the seeming certainty of the big dog Derrick Henry leaving town. I’m not sure that was ever a viable outcome, though I understand the sentiment. And despite Pollard’s odyssey of a 2023 audition as a featured ball carrier, he received reasonable money from Tennessee ($10.5 million guaranteed), thereby signaling commitment.

But it’s important to remember that the rookie Spears fought Henry to a dead even standstill in terms of playing time, with each receiving 558 snaps. Sure, Henry had the massive touch advantage, but Spears still managed to sequester 170 opportunities and was efficient with them. Ceding touches to one of the most talented running back unicorns in the NFL is hardly a black mark on Spears’ record, but more importantly – Pollard ain’t Henry. I just don’t see him keeping the ball out of Spears’ hands the way the now-Raven did.

Here again rational minds may differ, but based on the eye test Spears was the better ball carrier last season. While 250+ touches are unlikely, 200+ could be in the cards, which could see the NFL sophomore in the 1a position. In this scenario he’ll easily outplay his ADP, and such results would likely portend well for future viability.

Sell: Tony Pollard, RB (ADP = 102.3, Rank = 77.0)

You can more or less see what I said about Spears above, rinse and repeat, and apply the same logic here. Perhaps the biggest argument for Pollard is that he claimed he did not get fully healthy until late in the season. But apart from a couple of efficient games against the Panthers and Commanders, the numbers tell a different story.

The simple fact is this prior to 2023 Pollard only exceeded 200 touches once. Upon receiving 307 touches last season, he put forward the worst efficiency metrics of his career. He was never a bell-cow ball carrier in college, and seems at his best when he was capped as a 1b type of backfield option.

To be clear, subjectivity abounds. But for me personally, in a theoretical one-for-one deal I would take Spears over Pollard. As they have virtually identical ADPs, this explains my buy/sell logic.

Hold: Treylon Burks, WR (ADP = 198.0, Rank = 180.7)

As shown in some recent trade examples, Burks is now a throw-in and/or a lowly valued asset in trades.

I can’t really hate it either, as actions speak louder than words and the Titans sought out both Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd this off-season, to couple with veteran star DeAndre Hopkins. Particularly notable is the latter has both slot receiver experience and a history with new head coach Brian Callahan, which should give him a leg up on Burks.

Burks is rapidly approaching roster clogger status, but we do need to keep perspective. He was beginning to show improvement as a rookie and then early on in 2023 before injuries derailed his second-year campaign. It was also well known that he was a raw player entering the league, and that he would need time and experience to reach his potential.

Again, it hasn’t been a rosy start, but there’s a viable pathway forward. Hopkins is now 32 years old, and somewhat slogged his way to just under 1,100 yards last season (though admittedly on a league-worst passing offense). Boyd also had his worst year since 2017, and is no spring chicken either, as he will turn 30 in November. Even Ridley will surprisingly turn 30 during the season, though his time away from the game may mean there’s additional youth left. But the point is if one, two or all three veterans experience drop-off, it shouldn’t be a massive surprise, and Burks could stand to benefit. Even a modest effort should see an increase in value given his currently low ADP, meaning Burks is a strong speculative hold.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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