2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Jacksonville Jaguars!
Riser: Christian Kirk, WR
Kirk is an underrated receiver and I think with the acquisition of Calvin Ridley, many thought he would not put up big numbers. That is shown in Kirk’s ADP as it went down in May through September of 2023 but did increase with his production in the season. After his injury, the ADP has continued to go down with the additions to the wide receiver room in the off-season.
Current Market Value
Kirk’s value is listed as WR42, but I think that is way too low. In 2021, he finished as WR26 and with his first season as a Jaguar, he was WR12. Even last year if you just take average points per game, he would be WR33.
Future Outlook
Kirk should be one of the focal points of the offense again in 2024 and should go over 100 targets again. The addition of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr should help Kirk on the intermediate routes. At times, teams would sit on those routes and now there are two vertical threats to keep defenses honest. Davis has shown he is not a consistent week-to-week player. Thomas Jr will need time to develop and work through rookie growing pains. This does make a dangerous trio of receivers and I think Kirk out of the slot will continue to be a great option in the offense.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Trade Option/Conclusion
When looking at the below trades, for Kirk, there is a mixed bag. He still has two to three good years in this offense, and I would not be ready to send out a possible top-24 wide receiver. If I am trading Kirk, he must be a part of a big upgrade at wide receiver or running back for my team.
Even though the thought of a healthy Aaron Rodgers is enticing, I like having Kirk and the young talent of Jermaine Burton. Also, I think the 2.09 for Kirk is way too low. Second-round picks are not a sure thing. I am a big fan of D’Andre Swift, but I would take the Kirk side with Jonathon Brooks. Devin Singletary is probably just a year, or two stop-gap and Brooks could move into a top 12 back if healthy. I know draft picks are what everyone wants but at 1.10 that is not high enough for me to give up Kirk and Christian McCaffrey. Especially, when one of the picks is for an aging Stefon Diggs.
Faller: Evan Engram, TE
Engram has had a resurgence in his career with the Jaguars. He has had finishes as TE6 and TE2 in the last two years. He may fall down the tight-end ranks because of the change in offensive personnel and philosophy. Engram’s ADP saw a spike at the end of the season with the injury to Kirk then has seen a small dip since the NFL Draft.
Current Market Value
Even though Engram has consecutive finishes in the top six, the ADP has his ADP falling to TE10 for June. There is already thought of regression so I could see him falling to 12 or 13 this year, especially if the Jaguars can get the run game going better. I worry when Engram will start to decline and after this year, the Jaguars must start looking to cut some salaries with the big contracts of Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence. David Njoku is under Engram in the June ADP, and he is a year younger and has a higher overall ceiling.
Future Outlook
Engram had a ridiculous number of targets last year and I do not see that happening this year. There is an influx of new wide receivers as well as another off-season for second-round pick Brenton Strange. He only had nine targets last year so that number should go up.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Another big factor in Engram’s production increase was the injury to Kirk. Both players utilized the middle of the field and Engram took advantage of the extra opportunities. After Kirk’s injury early in week 13, Engram averaged 10.5 targets a game, up from the 7.5 he averaged before the injury. 52 targets in a five-game span are Travis Kelce-type numbers and I do not think we see that for Engram in 2024.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Trade Option/Conclusion
Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at possible Engram trades in superflex and two quarterback leagues.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Finder.
The trades with Engram are interesting but most of them have him as a larger package. I would be most interested in getting younger pieces, especially if I am not a contending team right away.
In the first trade, I do like Josh Allen over Joe Burrow but the first-round pick is not enough to offset losing Jahmyr Gibbs. The second and fourth trades are not even close for me to consider. I like the talent in Adonai Mitchell but I am not sure how many wide receivers Anthony Richardson can support. I would need more in that trade. The last trade is one I would accept. Pat Freiermuth is a younger player even though he has a ceiling at probably TE8. George Pickens should have a long career as a top-24 wide receiver. On the other side, it is aging assets I would want to move on from.
Longshot: Tank Bigsby, RB
Path to Relevance
The Jaguars used a third-round pick on Bigsby last year, which was surprising. Travis Etienne had just come off a 1,100-yard season but it looked like they wanted a back to take the load off him. Bigsby struggled in 2023 and had only 51 touches with a measly 2.6 yards per carry. He also had an issue with turnovers, leading to Etienne taking most of the carries for the year.
Etienne did not miss many games, but you could tell he was fighting through injuries and his production decreased in the middle of last season. The Jaguars through training camp have talked about distributing the touches better and getting Bigsby more involved. If he can consistently get 10-12 touches a game, he could be in flex consideration and any injury to Etienne could put him in top 12 running back territory.
#Jaguars HC Doug Peterson on RB Tank Bigsby:
“We gotta get Tank going. Bottom line. He’s too good. That’s why we drafted him.”
Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
This is the second time in a month that he’s talked about lightening Travis… pic.twitter.com/eSHTOQqIMT
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 25, 2024
Case Against Him
It is nice to say they want to take touches away from Etienne but it may not happen – especially if Bigsby continues to struggle with ball security and is not efficient with his touches. D’Ernest Johnson is also on the depth chart and has shown the ability to be a quality running back. So there could be a scenario where Johnson would get the second running back touches if Bigsby does not develop in his second year.
Verdict
I was surprised when the Jaguars picked Bigsby in the third round and thought the team had bigger needs. They struggled in short yardage in 2022 and this pick was because they wanted a more physical back to pair with Etienne. The problem is Bigsby was more of a slasher and not just a downhill runner. I think he gets more time this year and it could be a 60/40 split. The coaching staff needs to utilize Bigsby to his strengths this year more and allow for his growing pains.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Cornerstone Report, Week 18 - January 10, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Cornerstone Report, Week 17 - January 3, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Cornerstone Report, Week 16 - December 27, 2024
