2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Houston Texans
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Houston Texans.
Riser: Joe Mixon, RB
The Texans acquired veteran running back Mixon for a 2024 seventh-round pick. A few hours later, he had a shiny new contract extension for $27 million over three years. Expected to retain his lead-dog role in his new offense, Mixon offers some potential value, despite approaching the running back age cliff.
Current Market Value
Courtesy of DLF’s July ADP.
Mixon is entering the 2024 season as a low-end RB2 for dynasty drafting purposes. He is in the middle of a group of players who feel like a grab-bag of late sixth or early seventh-round start-up picks.
There could be a few factors at play leading to his value suppression over the last couple of seasons. Foremost of which is his age as he will be playing at age 28 this season. Through his first seven seasons, Mixon has amassed 1,571 rushing attempts and 347 targets, averaging 16.7 touches per game for his career.
The decline in his ADP has been gradual, taking its largest dip from January to April of 2023, falling 38.84 spots in that span.
Future Outlook
Mixon steps right into the Texans offense as the expected lead back of this backfield. Dameon Pierce appeared to have suffered a near-terminal case of sophomore slump and was benched in favor of Devin Singletary in week nine of last season. Singletary has since departed, giving Pierce at least a shot at a backup role. Behind those two are Dare Ogunbowale and sixth-round rookie, Jawhar Jordan, leaving little doubt on who will have the largest share of the carries.
Mixon also brings his pas-catching chops to this offense and has had more than 45 targets per season in five of his seven seasons. For reference, Singletary finished with 38 targets last season. Pierce offers very little in terms of pass-catching – once again pointing to a potential three-down workload for Mixon for the season to come.
Trade Options/Conclusion
First, let’s examine the DLF Trade Analyzer to establish a baseline.
In terms of simply identifying a workable range related to value, Mixon profiles as a mid-range second-round pick. While this is helpful for placing a player’s value into a range, seeing what he fetches in real trades is sometimes more beneficial. Let’s examine a few of those.
All trades listed are courtesy of DLF’s Trade Finder.
In trade number four, a manager sent both the 3.05 and 3.07 to receive Mixon and Chigoziem Okonkwo. While not overly bullish on Okonkwo, landing Mixon for a pair of thirds adds a starting running back. I lean toward the Mixon side here.
In number five, the acquiring side sent a 2025 first to acquire both Mixon and DeAndre Hopkins. While I would not personally send a first for Mixon in most cases, a team that is ready to win now could be trying to add the extra pieces to make a run.
This next grouping is fun. In trade number eight, we have two teams simply swapping players and appears to be fairly even. In trade nine, 2.02 for Mixon, which is in the range we mentioned earlier. Trade ten is interesting. The former Mixon manager sends Mixon, Malik Nabers, and a 2.03 to receive Christian McCaffrey and Davante Adams. Again, if I was the team that felt I was two current stars away from a championship, I can see dealing a solid running back, a promising rookie receiver and a pick.
Mixon finished as the RB11 in PPR points per game (15.7) last season and notched 12 total touchdowns.
Mixon represents a solid and well-rounded running back who should maintain the type of volume his managers have grown accustomed to. With all the receiving options on this offense, CJ Stroud should be able to get the ball down the field, creating plenty of scoring opportunities for Mixon. He could put together another top-12 season with double-digit total touchdowns and see a moderate spike in his dynasty value.
Faller: Nico Collins, WR
Justin Timberlake might be credited with bringing Sexy Back, but it was Nico Collins bringing the term third-year breakout back for the wide receivers. After mostly pedestrian production through his first two seasons, Collins broke out in a big way with rookie quarterback Stroud running the offense. He finished with career-highs in every receiving metric available, thus leading to a meteoric rise in his dynasty value.
Current Market Value
After finishing WR85 and WR76 over his first two seasons, Collins finished as the WR11 last season and has moved up to WR14.
The breakout season catapulted Collins from an ADP of 142.83 up to an ADP of 22 overall. Sharp drafters were already moving him up during the off-season heading into the 2024 season. With a new, and quite frankly, a more exciting quarterback than Davis Mills at the helm, dynasty managers were hoping for an increase in targets and production. Both Stroud and Collins delivered on those hopes, exceeding most expectations.
Future Outlook
Collins will have multiple hurdles to repeat the production he flashed last season. There are both returning receivers and a new one in town to discuss. Collins has shown both his floor and his ceiling over his three seasons. With Stroud still having some development and improvement opportunities ahead of him, Collins should remain involved in the Texans passing attack.
Trade Options / Conclusion
Collins’s trade value is at an all-time high. The buy-low, sell-high side of dynasty analysis considers this an ideal time to shop him to league mates.
It was an impressive outing with a talented, young quarterback. However, some immediate other factors should be taken into consideration. Firstly, the addition of Stefon Diggs. Diggs commands targets at a high rate and can be quite cantankerous when not peppered properly.
Secondly, the return of Tank Dell who made impressive play after impressive play last season, before injury shortened his rookie season. Behind that presumed starting three, there is also Robert Woods and Noah Brown. Not to mention capable pass catchers in both Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz.
Long-term, Collins has value but his ADP is at its peak. Dynasty managers who roster him could consider selling, while those looking to acquire could probably do so for far cheaper if Collins fails to support his current cost in a crowded receiving room should he fail to repeat last season’s success.
Longshot: Noah Brown, WR
Path To Relevance
Courtesy of 4for4’s Depth Chart tool
During a two-week stretch last season with both Collins and Dell sidelined with injury, Brown put up back-to-back 150-plus receiving yard games. He finished those two weeks as WR3 and WR6 respectively.
In his first season with the Texans, Brown had the fifth-most targets on the team despite playing in only ten games. His 17.2 yards per reception led the team.
Case Against Him
Thus far in his career, Brown has been a role player who typically sees targets when players are missing as opposed to earning targets through consistent reliability.
We did just recently establish that this receiving core is deep and offers plenty of potential mouths to feed. With a healthy Collins, Diggs, and Dell at the top, it would most likely require an injury for Noah Brown to see a meaningful number of targets.
Verdict
After completing his first season with the team, the Texans thought enough of him to resign him to another short deal. For dynasty purposes, he is more of a bench stash than a flex option with a fully healthy receiving core around him. His upside is unfortunately tied to the injury status of the players ahead of him. He has shown that when called upon, he can produce. He would need to put in some serious work to earn more of a target share in this offense.
- January Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - February 4, 2025
- August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - August 27, 2024
- July Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - July 31, 2024
