Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues

Welcome to the ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ series where each week I’ll be focusing on one position to analyze four players and what we should be doing with them. This week wide receivers are back on the menu and I’ve got some interesting names.

AJ Brown, WR PHI – League Dependent

2023 was another great year for Brown as he finished the season with 17.0 PPR points per game, his third such season out of his five years in the NFL. He also set new career highs in targets and receptions while setting an NFL record for consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards with six. Brown, who will be playing in 2024 at 27 years old, is still in the prime of his career. This off-season the Eagles made very few changes to their offensive personnel – they changed out D’Andre Swift for Saquon Barkley but made no real changes to their passing options. The big change for the Eagles was swapping offensive coordinators, going from Brian Johnson to Kellen Moore. Will we see more of the same from Brown in 2024?

The Move – AJ Brown can normally be found in a tier with other talented wide receivers like Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, and Marvin Harrison Jr where their exact ranking tends to change based on who you’re talking to. Brown easily projects to continue to be a similar player to who he has been while being surrounded by these younger players who could have a higher theoretical ceiling than him which creates an interesting dynamic. I’m treating this tier as flat as I have high expectations of all of them and will take whichever player is cheapest. If you can trade Brown for one of the others while getting an additional asset, I’d do it. If you can buy Brown and get the additional asset while sending one of the others, I’d do that too.

Nico Collins, WR HOU – Sell

Few players in the NFL had a breakout in 2023 like Collins did. He entered the NFL as a hyper athlete who could use some polishing and disappointment through his first two years. But, through a combination of Collins’ step up in play, CJ Stroud, and Bobby Slowik’s top-notch play calling, Collins broke out with a WR7 performance in PPR PPG with 17.4. Additionally, Collins finished second in the NFL in yards per route run and fifth among wide receivers in yards after catch per reception. But Collins did benefit from Tank Dell missing time to end the season. This off-season, the Texans signed Collins to a big contract extension and traded for Stefon Diggs giving them an incredible trio of wide receivers but making it harder to project who will lead the room. What will we see from Collins in 2024?

The Move – Collins has been creeping closer and closer to fringe WR1 market value of the off-season, especially after signing his contract extension. While I think he is a really talented player, there’s enough risk to his profile while being surrounded by other legit wide receivers that I have trouble ranking him that high. I would like to use the current hype with Collins to upgrade him to a more established player where I think there’s less risk. Knock on the doors of the DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave managers to see how much you have to add to Collins to get the deal done.

George Pickens, WR PIT – Sell

Pickens impressed many in 2023, improving on what was an up-and-down rookie year in 2022. He improved his PPR PPG from 9.8 to 12.3 and finished 16th among all wide receivers in receiving yards. Throughout his time in the NFL Pickens has flashed down the field big play ability and acrobatic catches but hasn’t yet fully realized the potential many saw for him entering the NFL. Whether this is due to poor quarterback play, being given a limited role by the coaches, or Pickens himself is something we must parse through. This off-season the Steelers brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in an attempt to improve their QB play while making Arthur Smith their new offensive coordinator. Will we see another improvement from Pickens in 2024?

The Move – I find myself being lower than consensus on Pickens. I do think he’s a very talented deep threat but I worry about if and when the rest of his game rounds out while not having a lot of faith in his quarterback situation. I’d happily send Pickens for a cheaper wide receiver who I think can provide similar fantasy production while getting a plus on top like Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, Stefon Diggs, or Jayden Reed.

Christian Watson, WR GB – Hold

It was another season of peaks and valleys for Watson in 2023. He dealt with injuries again, causing him to miss eight games, but again showed off the high ceiling he can provide in any given week. Watson averaged 11.3 PPR PPG for the season, similar to his 11.9 rookie year performance, but had two weeks with at least 20 PPR points. Additionally, in the games he played, he led all Packers wide receivers in target share. The Packers passing offense remains the same going into 2024 which means the same questions remain for Watson. Can he stay healthy and how much does the Packers’ crowded wide receiver room affect him?

The Move – Watson has exhibited some serious talent in his career so far but the risks are very real. I believe Watson can be a difference-making asset while also recognizing the reality of his situation. The fact that all of his injuries to this point have been similar is concerning. The reports that he’s been working with a specialist to fix the issue are good news but there’s no guarantee that anything changes. Add in that he’s surrounded by other talented players and it makes me just want to hold the shares I do have to see if he can fully break out and not buy any more.

Good luck in all your upcoming trading endeavors.