Dynasty Decision: Diontae Johnson
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Diontae Johnson, WR CAR
Johnson has long been a polarising player in fantasy circles. He has produced some incredible fantasy numbers but has never warranted much hype. The Steelers never seemed truly enamored with him, resulting in him being traded this off-season. Now, heading into his sixth season, is he an undervalued dynasty asset or a player in a bad offense we should be avoiding?
Previous Performance
As a rookie, there was not a vast amount expected from Johnson. He was a third-round pick and didn’t receive a tremendous amount of fanfare either pre-draft or post-draft. He did, however, flash NFL talent as a rookie, commanding an impressive 92 targets and showing his consistent ability to get open. He also flashed as a punt returner, earning second-team all-pro honors.
In his second season, he led the Steelers in targets and finished impressively as the overall WR20, posting just short of 15 points per game. What was most impressive about the 2020 season was how he finished it. From weeks 9 to 16, he was the overall WR5, averaging 18 points per game.
The 2021 season was a high point for his fantasy production. With JuJu Smith-Schuster struggling with injuries, Johnson saw 10.5 targets per game. This volume allowed him to finish as the overall WR8, and his dynasty value peaked as the 25th overall player immediately after the season. However, since that phenomenal 2021 season, it has only been downhill for Johnson. Ben Roethlisberger‘s retiring and the drafting of Kenny Pickett caused issues for the overall Steelers offense, meaning Johnson has not reached the fantasy highs of his earlier career.
Following the 2023 season, the Steelers have revamped their offense. Pickett and Johnson were traded away, and Johnson now finds himself in Carolina as the potential number-one target for Bryce Young in his sophomore season.
Situation and Usage
Having been traded, there is a question mark around how he will be used, as the Panthers could utilize him in a different role than the Steelers. I would expect the Panthers to use him as an outside receiver primarily out of the X alignment, as the Steelers did. He is a route-running marvel who can get open at will, and that is exactly what the Panthers didn’t provide Bryce Young with last season. Despite throwing resources at the position this off-season, the Panthers’ wide receiver core is still a little light, and the competition for targets is the rookie Xavier Legette, sophomore Jonathan Mingo, and Adam Thielen. That is not exactly enough to scare me off expecting Johnson to lead the Panthers in targets this year and by a significant margin.
I would expect Johnson to see similar target volumes to his peak with the Steelers. Young struggled as a rookie, but he is a fantastically accurate passer in the short to intermediate areas of the field, particularly when pushing the ball outside the numbers. This is the area where Johnson thrives, and it could be a perfect match for both Johnson and Young.
Contract
Johnson is in the final year of his two-year extension, which he signed with the Steelers. He has a cap hit of $10m for the Panthers, for which only $3m is guaranteed. The Panthers may want to let him play out the final year of his contract and see what they have before committing to him long-term. However, given the way the wide receiver market has exploded and the limited options that hit free agency every year, it may be wise for them to work on an extension before the season starts to ensure they lock up Johnson’s services for the longer term. If Johnson does hit free agency, he will have plenty of suitors in a limited pool of options and may end up in a similar situation to Christian Kirk two years ago, where he gets overpaid for being the best of a bad bunch.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR43 in January ADP and the 77th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the equivalent of the 2.01 or two future seconds in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
First things first, I am a lot higher than the consensus around my expectation for Diontae Johnson, as you can see from the below rankings page:
He is my WR35 compared to the consensus WR43. I have always been a fan of good route runners who can get open because I believe that it translates to fantasy success over time. Johnson is consistently valued as one of the best pure separators in the league, and despite the new surroundings, he should get open enough to command impressive volume and with that fantasy success.
At 27 years old, he is young enough that he should be a target no matter your roster situation. He can help you compete now as a WR4 or flex play, and he can help you compete in a couple of years. He can also be sold for a profit once he starts producing in Carolina.
There is a small risk that the Steelers gave up on him because he is a problem in the locker room, and that could be an issue in a locker room without an established leadership group. However, given that he is playing for his next contract, I expect him to be on his best behavior and put his best foot forward in 2024. At the price of a late first or early second, it is hard to find a player who can produce the same highs at this low price.
- Dynasty Decision: Christian McCaffrey - June 13, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - June 6, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Breece Hall - May 30, 2025
