2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Bo Nix

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

Situation

Name: Bo Nix

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Denver Broncos

College Team: Oregon (transferred from Auburn)

Draft Status: Round 1; Pick 12

Bo Nix and Auburn looked like the perfect marriage. Nix was a legacy recruit and a local kid who appeared poised to give the Tigers a chance to go head-to-head with the Crimson Tide each year. While he had his moments, it never quite clicked to the degree the hype would have had you believe, and he transferred to Oregon after three seasons in the SEC.

Nix took off in Eugene, improving his numbers across the board and delivering on the robust toolkit he has possessed from day one. He was a perfect fit for Oregon’s passing attack, utilizing his deadly accuracy in the intermediate game to post video game-esque numbers, including a 45-3 TD-INT ratio in 2023 as he finished third in Heisman voting.

After leaving Auburn as a day three selection or even possibly a UDFA, Nix’s work at Oregon propelled him into round one. The route was long and circuitous, but he delivered on his promise as a recruit and now stands as the future in Denver.

Talent

Bo Nix’s Combine Results:

• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 214
• Arm: 31 7/8”
• Hand: 10 1/8”

Nix did not participate in extensive athletic testing at either the NFL Combine or his Pro Day.

Outside of hand size, nothing about Nix’s physical profile stands out. He does, however, check all the boxes when it comes to his frame, and hand size is something many value highly, especially when it comes to performing in messy conditions.

Oregon’s offense is quarterback-friendly, but Nix’s accuracy and ability to process a defense pre-snap still stand out. His grasp of the scheme helps him get the ball out quickly and he shows plenty of arm talent despite often operating near the line of scrimmage. A quick release allows him to work in sync with his receivers and he is excellent on the move, both extending plays and making throws on the move.

Nix does many things well, though it is fair to ask what his true trump card is. At his best, he is an experienced quarterback who expertly does what is asked of him. At his worst, he can become erratic when the conditions around him crumble and he is forced to put an offense on his shoulders. Ultimately, he looks ticketed to become a solid distributor, the type of quarterback who can play within the timing of the offense and allow his receivers to make plays after the catch. Your mileage may vary on the upside of this prototype, but Nix is a day one starter with a tidy floor.

Opportunity

Heading into the draft, the Broncos may have had the thinnest quarterback depth chart in football. Jarrett Stidham is already a journeyman entering his sixth season, having played for three different teams and maxing out at 656 passing yards in a single season. While he may have developed into a capable backup, he is not someone you hand over the keys of your offense to. Old friend Zach Wilson is already on the roster, with the Jets giving up on the former second-overall pick after three seasons for nothing more than a late-round pick swap. Maybe Sean Payton can turn Wilson into a backup, but the ship has sailed on him being a starter.

Nix walks into a perfect situation to start, and at age 24, he has the benefit of a few extra years of maturity not many rookies do. It would be an upset if he does not start, and would be a concerning development given his draft status and the state of the quarterback room.

Risk

Nix is a highly drafted quarterback. What could go wrong? The Broncos’ last first-round selection at the position was Paxton Lynch, quite possibly one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory. Of course, we cannot merely draw parallels from Nix to Lynch or any bust at the quarterback position. Football is hard, and doubly so when you are playing the game’s most difficult position.

Acknowledging the inherent risk with any rookie quarterback, Nix reduces it with his early path to playing time. Any flashes as a rookie and his superflex value should hold strong while he steadily moves up the ranks with older quarterbacks hitting their twilight years. Compared to many of his peers, Nix is on the safer side.

Market

Depending on your league size, Nix is going in the late first or early second round of rookie superflex drafts. Quarterbacks go at a premium in such a format and Nix is no different, though the sheer depth of this year’s class has moved him down a few slots compared to where he would land in most drafts.

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.

The power of superflex shows in the trade options for Nix, as shown by the Trade Analyzer. You can pick your position and find a match for Nix, at least as far as value is concerned. Team makeup will be essential in comparing values, as teams light on quarterbacks may be reticent to part with a promising rookie while others may balk at moving an established veteran.

Despite being a fairly polarizing prospect, most acknowledge Nix’s pathway to opportunity as well as his landing spot, where Sean Payton is a respected offensive mind. A strong start to his career and Nix will be tough to procure. The summer may be the perfect time to strike if you believe in the player.