2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Will Shipley
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Will Shipley
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Philadelphia Eagles
College Team: Clemson
Draft Status: Round 4; Pick 127
Shipley hails from Weddington, NC, a suburb of Charlotte. His father, James Sr., was a longtime youth sports coach and involved both of his children in sports at a young age. Shipley was a star football and lacrosse player, playing up two grade levels in football so that he could play with his older brother. As a freshman running back on the varsity team, he was a star right away, totaling 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns on offense as a running back. He had his best season his junior year, leading Weddington to an undefeated 16-0 season and a 3A state championship. He was the MVP of the title game, running for 256 yards. He finished the season with 2,066 yards (11 YPC) and 42 touchdowns. He was the 2019 Gatorade player of the year in North Carolina. The pandemic forced him to miss his senior season.
Shipley was a five-star recruit and the number two running back in the 2021 class, behind TreVeyon Henderson. While his family has deep connections with NC State, Shipley decided to go south of the border and attend Clemson and play under Dabo Swinney.
He made an impact right away, leading the team in rushing with 739 yards in his freshman season. He scored 11 touchdowns on the ground and earned second-team freshman All-American honors. He had his best season as a sophomore, accumulating 1,182 rushing yards on 210 carries. He found the end zone 15 times on the ground and added 38 catches for 242 yards. For his efforts, he earned first-team All-ACC honors at three positions (RB, All-Purpose and KR), the first player in ACC history to accomplish that feat. As a junior, Shipley struggled to match his sophomore year production thanks to some injury issues, including a concussion. He only had 167 carries for 827 yards and five touchdowns.
Shipley was carted off of the field during his final college bowl game this past season with a left knee injury. Luckily, no structural damage was found and he decided to declare for the draft. Because of the injury, he waited until Clemson’s Pro Day to work out for scouts. The Eagles decided to take him in the fourth round as the seventh running back selected.
Shipley also ran back kicks throughout his entire Clemson career. He had 34 returns for 904 yards, an average of 26.6 per. He may contribute as a kick returner, but the Eagles also drafted Cooper DeJean and Ainias Smith, who have return experience at the college level.
Talent
Will Shipley’s Combine Results:
- Height: 5’ 11”
- Weight: 206 lbs
- Arm: 30 1/4”
- Hand: 9 5/8”
Athletic Testing performed at Pro Day
- 40-Yard: 4.45
- 20-Yard Split: 2.59
- 10-Yard Split: 1.54
- Vertical Jump: 38.5”
- Broad Jump: 10’ 2”
- Short Shuttle: 4.1
- 3-Cone: 6.88
- Bench Press: 16
Data courtesy of RAS Football.
Shipley is an all-purpose back who ran the ball for 5.2 yards per carry throughout his college career and also caught 85 balls over 36 games (5.5 YPR). He’s an undersized back, but he uses that size to his advantage, combining it with his quick feet and wiggle through traffic to break big runs. Despite his size, he is willing to charge his shoulder into defenders in an attempt to run through them. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said of Shipley: “though he has the mentality of an early-down grinder, his versatile skills fit best in a third-down role and on special teams.”
Shipley’s best skill is as a pass catcher on designed running back screens. He excels with space and can break them off for big gains. Kellen Moore’s system utilizes these kinds of plays frequently, benefitting Shipley’s game.
It is worth noting that he is a much better runner in a zone scheme than he is in a gap scheme. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, he had 82 attempts in each scheme. He earned an 80 grade running in zone schemes and a 65 grade while running in gap. Luckily, per Fantasy Points Data, Moore’s running backs in Los Angeles ran the ball in the zone concept 56.62% of the time. Furthermore, D’Andre Swift ran 71.2% of his attempts in a zone concept last season, so these concepts should fit Shipley’s strengths.
Shipley is undersized at 5’11” and 206 lbs. Despite his size, he also isn’t the fastest runner on the field, often being caught from behind by defenders. He ran an elite 40-yard dash, so his speed should translate better to his tape, but it just doesn’t. He’s also dealt with several injuries throughout his career, so health will be important for him. Finally, he needs to protect the ball better. He had nine drops and eight fumbles in his collegiate career.
Opportunity
Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart:
Depth Chart from 4for4 team depth charts.
The Eagles made the biggest free agent acquisition of the off-season, bringing in Saquon Barkley on a three-year deal worth $37.75 million. Only two running backs last season played a higher percentage of their team’s snaps than Barkley (79.9%). When he was healthy, he was constantly on the field. It has to be expected that, as long as he can stay healthy, Barkley will be the Eagles bellcow back for years to come.
Health is of course the x-factor for Barkley. He’s only played a full 16-game season twice in his six-year career. He also missed most of 2020 with an injury. Barkley may be a very important running back to handcuff, especially in deep dynasty leagues. Shipley has a chance to be that player, but Kenneth Gainwell is still on this team. Despite Swift’s large workload last season, Gainwell was on the field for 40.9% of the Eagles snaps. Nick Sirianni loves Gainwell, and he should be considered the favorite to be the number two on this team in 2024.
Shipley will likely start out his career as a special teams contributor and a passing-down specialist. While he may not be the direct handcuff right away, he could earn that role away from Gainwell by 2025. Even while Gainwell is the handcuff, if Barkley goes down Shipley will earn a massive role in the backfield with Gainwell. It is a bad opportunity for a rookie fourth-round running back, but there is a path to fantasy success and value down the road.
Risk
Image courtesy of Sports Reference.
The biggest risk with Shipley is that he never gets the opportunity to play significant snaps with the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s under contract with the team for four years, and Barkley is under contract for three of those years. If all goes according to plan, Barkley will be their star running back all three of those years and there will be very limited opportunities for any other running backs. That being said, Barkley is susceptible to injuries and Gainwell isn’t a ton of competition for backfield touches if Barkley goes down.
He needs to develop several areas of his game if the Eagles can trust him on the field. As an undersized back, he can be a liability in pass-blocking scenarios. He also hasn’t done a good enough job of protecting the football in college, totaling eight fumbles over his 36 games.
Shipley is cheap in drafts, but he certainly isn’t free. With Barkley ahead of him on the depth chart, he could be a completely wasted pick.
Market
Data courtesy of DLF June Dynasty ADP.
Data courtesy of DLF ADP History.
In dynasty startup drafts, Shipley is being selected as the 62nd running back and 187th player overall. He’s being selected after Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime, and before Braelon Allen and Isaac Guerendo. It’s a cheap enough pick at that point in the draft.
In 1QB rookie drafts, he’s going at the end of the fourth round, as the 11th running back off the board and the 47th player overall. It’s Hail Mary time at this point in the rookie draft, especially at running back. Shipley is fine here if you have a deep roster, a taxi squad, or Saquon Barkley and limited depth behind him at running back. Allen is going after him, and Dylan Laube is another interesting running back who could have an easier path to playing time than Shipley will.
Shipley’s 1QB trade value via the DLF Trade Analyzer Tool.
Shipley carries limited trade value right now because of his lack of a clear role. He likely won’t be Barkley’s direct handcuff early on, and even if he is, that isn’t a very valuable asset to have. Barkley does have an injury history behind the horrible Giants offensive line, but in Philadelphia, with their high-powered offense, he may be leaned on less often and that could help his ability to stay on the field. Gainwell will likely be ahead of Shipley on the depth chart, and Tyrion Davis-Price could be as well.
I loved Shipley’s college tape. He is explosive, elusive and has an incredible motor. His vision is lacking at times, but he makes up for that with a willingness to run through players who are bigger than he is. He was one of my favorite players in this draft class, but the landing spot did him no favors when it comes to dynasty fantasy football value. Unfortunately, this team is in win-now mode, and the best way for them to win is to have Saquon Barkley on the field as often as possible. When he is getting spelled, the Eagles are more likely to lean on Kenneth Gainwell early on than they are to trust a rookie who struggles in pass protection and ball security. Shipley may be a tough player to hold on to throughout the fantasy football season while you’re waiting for a breakout that may never come.
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