2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Atlanta Falcons

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks!

Let’s jump into the Atlanta Falcons!

Riser: Kyle Pitts, TE

Pitts has had three disappointing seasons in a row. Once lauded as the best tight end prospect of a generation, dynasty managers have become sick and tired of waiting for him to play up to his potential. But, the presence of Kirk Cousins could be just the thing to tip his stock in the right direction. Pitts will finally have a season where his stock increases.

Current Market Value

Image of June DLF Dynasty ADP.

Pitts is currently the seventh tight end going off the board in dynasty startup drafts. At 54 overall, he’s being drafted in the fifth round of these drafts. The tight ends going right above him are Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Dalton Kincaid. There’s a tier drop after Pitts, as the next tight end is TJ Hockenson at 67 overall.

His DLF Dynasty ADP History.

Apparently, it’s three strikes and you’re out with fantasy football managers. After a TE13 finish last season, Pitts dropped from a top 20 pick last year to 54th. With Cousins under contract, and a new offensive play-caller, Pitts is set up to have the best season of his career. If he finishes as a top-eight tight end this season, his ADP is bound to rebound and rise.

The DLF Expert Rankings have Pitts a bit higher in the tight end rankings, but lower in the overall rankings than the ADP. He’s ranked as the fifth tight end and the 58th player overall. The expert rankers push Pitts and Hockenson up over Kelce and Kincaid, who are above them in ADP.

Future Outlook

2023 Game Logs via the DLF Game Log App.

Pitts finished as the 13th tight end in PPR scoring with 137.3 points. It wasn’t pretty, as the quarterbacks were absolutely horrible in Atlanta last season. According to Fantasy Points Data, only 73.3% of Pitts’s targets were catchable targets. Out of all tight ends with at least 50 targets, that’s the lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, TJ Hockenson’s catchable target rate was 87.4% from Cousins, the eighth highest of all tight ends with 50 targets.

Cousins changes everything for Pitts. Over his first three seasons in the NFL, Pitts’ quarterbacks have been an over-the-hill Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Cousins is his first quarterback who should be a starting NFL quarterback.

1️⃣ Kyle Pitts was dead last of TEs in catchable target rate (#40 of 40)

2️⃣ Kirk Cousins ranked #3 best in accuracy (#3 of 44)

3️⃣ 27% of Cousins passes targeted TEs last year

is 2024 a Kyle Pitts breakout season? https://t.co/e8JzAgDHYg

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 25, 2024

 

Pitts will not turn 24 until October of this year. He’s younger than Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride and only a few months older than Sam LaPorta. At 6’6”, 245 pounds with 4.44 speed, Pitts is a weapon who simply has been underutilized by his coaching staff and his quarterbacks in recent seasons. He came into the career as one of the most hyped tight end prospects in a very long time, this will be the season he finally shows us why.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at possible trades in superflex and two quarterback leagues.

Recent Trades in Superflex Dynasty Leagues from the DLF Trade Finder App.

Despite the falling ADP, he is still a buzz name in dynasty leagues. Everybody knows about him, and he’s too valuable to be snuck through a low-value trade. If you want to buy him, you’ll likely have to pay for him. With that being said, I see some really nice recent trade values. In one league, he was traded along with a 2024 second for the 1.06 pick in the rookie draft. In another, he went straight up for the 1.06 pick. My favorite trade there was Tony Pollard for Pitts and a seventh-round pick in a two-tight end league. That’s incredible value for a tight end who could still have years of value ahead of him. Pollard was a major disappointment last year, and he’s going to a new team with much more competition in the backfield for touches, and a worst all-around offense. Even in a 1-TE league, I think that’s a slam dunk trade.

There really isn’t a type of team that shouldn’t be trying to trade for a player like Pitts. He is likely a top 30 player in dynasty who is being valued in the 50s. He’s due to finally have his breakout season, and Cousins and Brian Callahan will be the ones to bring it to Atlanta. I would be surprised if he isn’t a top three tight end by the time this season ends for dynasty fantasy football leagues.

Faller: Michael Penix, QB

The Falcons made a shocking draft pick when they took Penix with the eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft. They had just signed Kirk Cousins to a three-year deal worth over $100 million, and then they signed a rookie who is older (24) and has a complicated injury history. The Falcons are hoping to pull off a Jordan Love-type of pick with Penix, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be falling for it.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

June DLF Dynasty ADP.

Penix is the 27th quarterback off the board in startup dynasty leagues and the 201st pick in one-quarterback formats. In superflex, he’s the 86th player off the board. He’s being drafted right behind quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford, and right ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith and Justin Fields. I don’t know why in the world, especially in a one-quarterback league, anyone would draft an underwhelming, 24-year-old rookie quarterback who isn’t expected to start for at least two full seasons, but that’s where he’s being valued.

The DLF Expert Rankings have Penix more appropriately ranked at QB32, 209th overall. I still likely wouldn’t even rank him in one quarterback leagues.

Future Outlook

Penix will not help you win a dynasty championship this season, unless there is an injury to Cousins. He’ll clog up a roster spot on your team, or a taxi squad spot, prevent you from picking up another option, and likely score zero points for your team.

What about in 2025? Same story. Unless there is an injury to Cousins, or he plays absolutely terribly this season, Penix will not have a shot at the starting role.

2026? This will be the final year of Cousins’ contract so, one has to assume, the Falcons hope and expect him to be their starting quarterback that year. He will be 38 at the start of that season, so it’s possible a 26-year-old Penix beats him out for the starting job at that point in his career.

If and when Penix ever does get on the field, what does he bring to the table? He was a very good college quarterback who saw his career destroyed by back-to-back-to-back season-ending injuries at Indiana. After a transfer to Washington, he turned his career around and had a career season last year, bringing the Huskies to the National Championship Game. He is faster than he looks on film, but lost a lot of explosiveness thanks to his knee injuries. He’s a good pocket quarterback with a strong arm, but he also may have benefitted from having three outstanding wide receivers on his team in Rome Odunze (first-round pick), Ja’Lynn Polk (second-round pick) and Jalen McMillan (third-round pick).

Anyone drafting Michael Penix in a rookie draft look away…look away…pic.twitter.com/9r8fOfgljX

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 21, 2024

 

The biggest problem for Penix here is that Cousins is still a really good quarterback. He has an outstanding cast of weapons around him and could be looking at a career season ahead of him. Penix is really good too, and I was hoping to be able to pick him in dynasty draft this season, especially if he ended up being a top-ten pick. Unfortunately, he was selected by the Falcons, where he may be stuck carrying a clipboard until he is 27 years old.

Michael Penix’s and Hendon Hooker’s Dynasty ADP Comparison.

Last season, the Lions made a similar move to this when they drafted Hendon Hooker in the early second round, despite having Jared Goff on the team. Hooker also had a bad injury history and was an older prospect as well. Despite that, he was drafted in most leagues, even one quarterback league, because the assumption was that he would be the heir-apparent to Goff after his contract played out. What happened last season? While Hooker was stuck on the sidelines rehabbing a knee injury, Goff had an outstanding season and earned himself a contract extension. Now, Hooker’s value has completely disappeared in dynasty leagues. If Cousins has a good enough season to not have to compete for his job next year, expect Penix’s value to go completely off the board, just like Hooker’s did one year after being drafted.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Once again, let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for trade options.

Penix trades in superflex league from the DLF Trade Finder.

The trade market is almost non-existent for a player like Penix. He is a rookie, who was just selected in rookie drafts. If a team wanted him off their roster, they wouldn’t have picked him.

With that being said, if you can get a first-round pick for Penix in a dynasty superflex league, like the teams above were able to do, I would absolutely do it. I don’t love the second trade as much as the first, because the player had to give up George Pickens as well, but it is a pretty fair value.

If you drafted Penix, and you do want to sell him, the best chance to do it would be to seek out the Cousins manager in your league and offer up a trade. Try to get a first-round pick, or a second and a decent player. Unfortunately, this will not be easy to do, and you’re likely stuck with Penix on your team. If Cousins is horrible this year, or suffers an injury, then you’ll have an outstanding lottery ticket on your bench. But, in all likelihood, expect a fall in dynasty ADP similar to Hendon Hooker’s over the past season.

Longshot: Darnell Mooney, WR

Path to Relevance

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart from 4for4 Team Depth Charts.

This is what happens when your team randomly decides to draft a backup quarterback with the eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft. There is a major hole at wide receiver behind Drake London and almost nobody exciting to fill it. That is, except for Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, two newcomers that the Falcons brought in to join the team this season. Of the two of them, I’m most excited for Mooney.

Mooney struggled to do much for the Bears in his four seasons there. In his rookie season, he caught 61 balls for 631 yards and four touchdowns. His best season was his sophomore year where he caught 81 for 1,055 and another four touchdowns. Heis a deep-threat wide receiver who has averaged over 12 YPC in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, the quarterback play and the offensive systems have suffered in Chicago in recent years, forcing him way down dynasty draft boards.

In Cousins’s years in Minnesota, he always supported two wide receivers for high-end fantasy seasons. First it was Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Then it was Justin Jefferson and Thielen. Then it was Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Cousins spreads the ball around plenty, and on this offense, there should be plenty of love to go around. Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts will be the center points of the offense, but Mooney will be on the field a ton for the Atlanta Falcons this season, and he should expect much more than the 61 targets and 31 catches he had last season with Justin Fields.

Case Against Him

The case against Mooney is the other wide receiver they brought in, Rondale Moore. It’s likely that only one of them is going to return flex or high-end bench production in this offense this season for fantasy football. My bet is on Mooney, but Moore is not a zero and cannot be ignored.

This will be offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s first season calling plays, but he spent last season with the Los Angeles Rams and he is a member of the Sean McVay coaching tree. Last year, the Rams ran 11 personnel 93.1% of the time. That was far and away the most in the league and 31 percentage points higher than the league average. While Mooney may be the most likely Z receiver, Moore will still get plenty of snaps as the number three receiver in this offense. If Cousins targets him more than Mooney, it could lead to another underwhelming season for Mooney.

Verdict

Darnell Mooney’s 1QB DLF Dynasty ADP.

Mooney is nearly free in dynasty leagues right now and has a real shot to be a decent WR3 or flex option this season for fantasy football. He has more upside than all of the other wide receivers being selected around him, like Devontez Walker, Kendrick Bourne, Tutu Atwell and Jonathan Mingo. He’s still young at 26 years old and he’ll be on the field constantly for an offense that could be one of the best in the league. Mooney is absolutely a buy in dynasty fantasy football leagues right now.